AK suited preflop near bubble
From a low stakes ($50) live turbo tournament (10 minute rounds). Hero thinks he is one of the better players. 😀 Blinds are 10K and 20K. 13 players remain, pays 7. Hero is BB with AK suited and has $236K in chips, second highest at table. Villain is SB with 250K in chips (highest at table). Folds to villain who shoves all-in. About 85% confident that villain has a middle pair (88-QQ) with some chance of smaller pair, AK, AQ, maybe AJ. Highly unlikely that villain has AA, KK or any other weaker hand. If villain turns over a middle pair, we are about 46-47% to win and are putting in only just under 46% of the pot. Do you make this call? Thanks.
15 Replies
If it matters average stack is probably around 160K.
13 left, paying 7 isn't that close to the bubble. Nearly half the field has to bust to make the money. In a 1,000 person tournament paying 150, we wouldn't say that you were "close to the bubble" at 280.
Your range for villain is likely far too tight. This is an easy call.
Now, maybe it's not if villain literally shows you a pair, but pairs are hard to come by and villain should be shoving a lot here. Live players at these stakes probably won't shove properly, but "AQ+ 88-QQ is 85% of his range" seems much too tight as well. So he's just limp/folding or outright folding ATo, KQs?
This might get interesting if there were, say, 9 left and depending on how short some of the other stacks were. Because even though you're second in chips, you only have 11.5BB, which is not a lot. If you were that close to the money with a couple of micro stacks you could simply outlast by folding, that would be worth considering. You're not, though.
I don't see any way this isn't a call, and a pretty easy one.
Thanks. I know the player and I think he would have limped or raised less with other hands, but I agree with you that it is a call. In the moment, I snap called, but started to second guess myself.
Red or black?
Call. I don't think he has pps that high a percentage. Could have aces and kings you dominate.
We have 12 bb's and AKs. I think that Villain can have any AXs and many AXo hands. Some KXs hands as well and even possibly KQ/KJ/KT. I do think that Villain will have PP's including lower ones that will make this a flip slightly in Villain's favor but that is life. If we double up we are likely going to go deep with 3x avg stack.
Sorry it didn't work out
Since there’s nothing more to add, what did you lose to? TT or JJ?
88. I hit the king. Then villain rivered an 8.
Supposed to be calling, or actually calling based on this thread?
Would you have posted this if you'd won?
No he wouldn’t but that’s how we learn, we lose, come and whine here and get better at gambling money
You get better by focusing on your decisions, not their results. Sometimes the results make you question the decision, but you have to make sure you're focused on the actual decision and not just "Is there a way I can avoid busting with a great hand?"
You get better by focusing on your decisions, not their results. Sometimes the results make you question the decision, but you have to make sure you're focused on the actual decision
I’m aware but that’s what schizophrenics tell each other too when they plot at night at the ward ��
jk, I know how bad being RO is, but if it makes you rethink a hand and ask ppl about it, it’s good overall
