Showdown statistics - strange problem
I can't figure this out:
There's a 6 handed cash game, players play total of 50 hands and they all end with a showdown. E
Forget how many people played Powerball. 9,12,22,41,65 with 25 as the power ball. That was the result of the most recent Powerball drawing. That particular result had a 1 in 292 million chance of occurring by random chance. ThatÂ’s much less probable than your lucky streak of card prediction. If your streak must be non-random then why would you not suspect that the wildly improbable result of the last drawing is similarly not random?
Well, itÂ’s likely because there had to be SOME combination of numbers drawn; the one actually drawn seems not particularly noteworthy. Suppose the actual drawing had given 1,2,3,4,5 with a PB of 6. Would you conclude that itÂ’s not random? Maybe, but thatÂ’s because we perceive a pattern that makes it noteworthy. There is only a tiny fraction of all possible results that we would perceive as noteworthy. Thus we think that it MUST be nonrandom when we see one. That isnÂ’t true, however. 1-2-3-4-5 PB6 is no less likely than the actual result.
In like fashion, suppose you repeat your experiment and predict the color of 15 random cards. For simplicity assume you shuffle after each (so we donÂ’t have to account for cards already dealt and can assume a probability of 1/2 of making the correct prediction). Record your results as a string of Rs and Ws (Right or Wrong). You happened to get RRRRRRRRRRRRRRR when you did this. Had you gotten something like WRRRWWWRWRRWRRW, you probably wouldnÂ’t have posted anything. Yet this particular string of Rs and Ws is no more or less probable than your actual result. It just is less noteworthy.
If you really do have the ability to see a pattern in how the color of cards in a random deck goes, then repeat the experiment. If your hypothesis is true, you should be able to correctly predict 15x in a row with probability greater than 1 in 32000. More testable, your probability to correctly predict should be greater than 1/2, so if you did this 1000 times, you would make 15000 predictions. If you got say 9000+ right, then maybe your hypothesis has some merit.
If you really do have the ability to see a pattern in how the color of cards in a random deck goes, then repeat the experiment. If your hypothesis is true, you should be able to correctly predict 15x in a row with probability greater than 1 in 32000. More testable, your probability to correctly predict should be greater than 1/2, so if you did this 1000 times, you would make 15
This concept of "a special ability" of guessing the color of cards doesn't require multiple exact repetitions. I got 15, then in the next try it would be enough to guess let's say 6 cards, then 4 cards in the next one, then 5 cards in the next one .... and so on. This would already be suspicious as a result and well above the average. But it's impossible to precisely set these required amounts just as it is impossible to recognize what is luck and what is not.
I remember that a few years ago I managed to guess the color of about 15 cards in a row (RED or BLACK) after shuffling the deck.
I must have had some sort of clue on the rhythm of that sequence. The probability is too low to be this lucky.
If it was possible to transfer this to a heads up game and mix it with some skills, then the result would be highly profitable.
Stu Ungar did a famous bet one time counting cards similar to this, there's a strategy for it
Sometimes I think that in HU, showdown random string of 1001110100010011110101 is even more important than the odds percentages and outs. Those 1-outers and 2-outers just happen too often 😀
I started playing perfect poker against AI bots. I mean, two days ago I won a tournament that I shouldn't have won at all. I made a perfect sculpture out of the available percentages with my aggression. Everything was mixed with just 2 or 3 super lucky all ins that were called. I just do not remember a single mistake. I am perfect.
I think you can switch from track to track making some players fold in 6+ handed tables and extend the number of showdowns that you will win in a row.
For example:
- for a 9 handed table your showdown wins string looks like: 0001000001101000100000000 (1 = win, 0 = lose)
- when you force particular players to FOLD and choose them properly eliminating stronger hands, your showdown wins string can look like: 0110011110101111111010001101
- when you win many hands by forcing others to FOLD and not count those hands in the string, the string may even start to look like 10111111101111101101111111111
Good luck 😀
The deck has no memory.
I started playing perfect poker against AI bots. I mean, two days ago I won a tournament that I shouldn't have won at all. I made a perfect sculpture out of the available percentages with my aggression. Everything was mixed with just 2 or 3 super lucky all ins that were called. I just do not remember a single mistake. I am perfect.I think you can switch from track to track maki
Again, all of these strings are random, just with different probability distributions for the result of the random variable. A random variable need not have a uniform probability distribution. Flipping a weighted coin such that heads comes up 3/4 of the time repeatedly still produced a random string of Hs and Td, just one with a different distribution than a fair coin would.
I just meant possibility of increasing the frequency of "1" appearing in the string by forcing folds.
