1/2, $380 deep: KK facing flop x/r, turn barrel

Chances are I'm probably shoving on the flop after his check raise. Worst case he has a set, & we're drawing thin.

But as played, I'm shoving the turn.

Unless you think is bluffing 30%+ of the time in a 1/2, I fold the turn. Even spazzy 1/2 players rarely bluff that often.

Preflop is standard.

Flop: V has range advantage here and I prefer to x behind on a rainbow board. If we're betting, it should be smaller. Our exact hand doesn't need protection and our TT/AA would probably prefer to let V catch up.
AP: I'm calling against spazzy V but not thrilled.

Turn: the V's 100 sizing is strange. Interestingly there are apparently no FDs. This has me pretty concerned that he has hit something big like two pair or a set.

We have more QQ and TT here. He shouldn't have too many value bets and I'm not sure he can continue to semi-bluff with 54s or weird stuff like 98s that turned a double-gutter, especially when we have all the AK and there's no apparent FD.

We can level ourselves into a call because V seems to be block betting here and "putting us on AK". I lean toward folding because "flop xr, lead turn" is a pretty nutted line on a non-flush board at these stakes against an uncapped preflop raiser. I would need a lot of hours with V to call here.

After the almost 3x raise on the flop, you have to evaluate whether your overpair is good. Your typical loose passive only raises the flop with two pair or better. I’m ok with calling the flop. But once V leads the turn, unless you’ve seen him make bluffs, I would fold.

Grunch:

PRE - seems like a huge open size for 1/2. Is that normal for this game? If so, I hope you adjust the ranges to play tighter from all positions.

FLOP - Seems like a somewhat large c-bet on a fairly dry, disconnected board. I don't hate sizing up with our c-bets as a low-stakes exploit, but we will need to proceed with caution when opponents continue.

Ordinarily, I'd probably fold or call the x/r dependent on my read and the stack depth. Here, since our read is that BB is prone to spaz and he didn't go huge with the x/r size, I probably continue and see what he does on the turn.

TURN - What's he repping?

Like, seriously - we could have QQ or TT, or just AA, or KK, or AQ, or AT. He's really only repping 66 or 33, or maybe 63. He could certainly have flopped 2P or a set, but I'd think those hands would bet bigger on the turn. This sizing smells fishy to me.

The only obvious draws on the flop would be some combos of 54 for the OESD. I don't see a lot of value in raising, unless we think he's going to call. He's not really giving himself a good price on his draw, if he's got 8 outs going to the river, and he's laying you over 3:1 pot odds to call.

I think the best play is to just call and let him barrel off. If he checks river on a brick, we can jam for thin value, and pray he calls with AT or whatever he might have been betting for value. If he jams on a 7 or 2, I might find a super-nitty fold, though not easily. Otherwise, if he just barrels off on a brick, I probably call, and expect to be good more often than not.

I think a lot of this comes down to how we're ranging him. If he's spazzy, and might be over-playing TX and his OESD's, or something crazy, like A6 or A3, then there's more value in letting him continue betting than there is in raising and possibly letting him off the hook.

Call twice. He's "putting you on AK."

id just call

i cant fold to a 1/2 pot size turn bet

Thanks all. I called turn.

River ($413): 8x
He jams $175…

KK’s strong here, probably just call the turn and see what hits on the river vs a rec. No need to jam and risk scaring off bluffs, let him make mistakes.

Call.

If he has a better hand, tap the table and reload.

Well you have to call this river for this price.

Thanks guys. I called and he shows me 88.. like WTF

He was spazzing, but he just got lucky. Nothing you can do. Shake it off, reload, and keep grinding.