Repost: K9s OTB gets equity on the turn
1/2. 225 effective. 6+3 rake promo.
Hero just sat down and watched V for five hands.
V open-limped and limped-called in the first three hands. When the dealer asked him to get off his cell phone, he apologized and said he was texting his granddaughter. “How old is your granddaughter?” I asked. “Thirteen” he said. “Isn’t gambling and texting at the table both setting a bad example?” I asked. “She likes to gamble with me” he said.
On the fourth hand, he won a huge pot after limping 4-way with 8Jo. This is the fifth hand. He’s counting his chips and pretty flustered.
OTTH
V open limps in CO. Hero OTB bets 10 with Kc9c. V calls. Heads-up.
Flop (17): Tc8d2h
Check, check.
Turn: 6c
V bets 10. Hero?
10 Replies
Call. I don't know if it makes sense to raise the turn against a passive player who likes to chase, especially since you could be facing a 3-bet if he hit BINGO, and you don't want to charge yourself to draw.
Raise bigger pre.
Pot size says 17 but it has to be 23 - rake (I ignore the rake for pot size, but I doubt it's 6 on the flop).
Bet flop with the 9, esp. with the BDFD.
Can raise or call on the turn, he can have some bet/folds here ... although your line looks weird checking flop and raising turn. Would likely depend on how he played the J8o hand post, to me.
Calling is fine, although you have to hit something to win as he's more likely to be overvaluing 6x than bluffing QJ/J9/whatever. Occasionally he'll "bluff" A7o or whatever and you still lose, so that's always nice.
Hero just sat down and watched V for five hands.
V open-limped and limped-called in the first three hands. When the dealer asked him to get off his cell phone, he apologized and said he PRE - seems fine to raise on the BTN when the CO limps, and we think he's a weak player.
FLOP - I'd c-bet for 1/2 pot here, almost always, and almost regardless of the flop texture. He's going to over-fold when he misses, and it'll be hard for his 1P combos to hold on when we continue to bet later streets.
TURN - I could see an argument for raising when we pick up the combo draw, but I'd mostly just call. I don't expect V to continue betting river without a made hand, so we're going to have an opportunity to steal this one, whether we make our hand or not.
id make it 55 tbh. would guess hes depolarized and unlikely based on description to play for all of it with a weak hand. no way he wants to text his grand daughter and told her he got stacked hand 6 with middle pair. vs a bigger presumably more polar size i would just call
If you're raising K9s on the BN, which is fine v this limp from CO, I think you should be betting this flop with two back-doors and an overcard.
As played on turn, I just call, given our equity and the smallish sizing.
Raising turn doesn't make a lot of sense, after checking flop, unless we raise large.
id make it 55 tbh. would guess hes depolarized and unlikely based on description to play for all of it with a weak hand.
So you are shoving most rivers, if he calls turn?
I don't hate it in general, but would think twice about it vs. the guy who just sat down and won a huge pot limping J8o.
Raise pf looks good. I hate that the rake makes the pot so small. On the flop I'd normally c-bet like $10. (And would fold to a raise larger than min)
The easy low variance route is call turn. I don't like big raise to try for what will be a pretty small pot ($24) after the max rake is taken.
But I could see doing a smaller raise with the plan of barrel river being potentially genius if villain puts in money according to the strength of his hand ("an 8 isn't a $100 hand"), not the fact that your range doesn't like this board and a turn raise is full of ish.
Results
Hero raised to 30. V mucked.
In the hand, I immediately regretted not opening to 12.
Next time, I'll bet the flop.
After V bet 10 on the turn, I thought raise or fold. I thought about overvaluing second-nut flushes. What are the io and rio if I got my stack in against V and his granddaughter when the club hits the river? Too bad gg wasn't there. In the moment, V just seemed too flustered counting his chips to want to face a moderate raise. My read was he was happier counting his chips than playing for a big pot.
