2024 Fantasy Football Thread

Realized I hadn't done the $15 SE on DK, and came out with a few bumps and bruises despite some people making it a little difficult.

JJM goes unstacked at 109 (ADP 124)
Bryce goes unstacked at 129 (ADP 149)

So I take Caleb since I have Swift and Burden could fall to me.

Burden goes at 122 (ADP 136)

Then I take Cam since I should be able to get Chig and/or Ayo, right?

Chig goes at 149 (ADP 169)
Ayo goes at 167 to the Burden guy (ADP 189)

Caleb, TLaw, Cam

Pacheco, Swift, Mason, ETN, Shipley, Giddens

JJ, AJB, JSN, TMac, DeVonta, WanDale, Lockett, Dyami

Strange, Kmet, Juwan

Hey guys, I just did two more Yahoo public ten man redrafts. Let me know if you have any feedback on these picks.

I went early with QB, but got compelled to take Dak in the 10th and 11th round just because I feel like he may have huge year. Probably a mistake, but I didn't see any players I was too interested in at the time.

In the second draft there, I took Treyveon at the 5.4 spot over JSN. I just felt that the receiving pool is fairly deep when you only start 2, so I got a third RB rather than balance out RBs and WRs at that point.

omg lol

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lol, what if you’ve had a vasectomy?

Gotta reverse it or not come in last. Rules are rules haha

2-8-6-2 or 2-7-7-2?

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2-7-7-2 out of those options.

But I could find myself at 3-7-6-2, as well, with a late Dimes, AR, or Darnold.

Alright went with a 3-7-6-2 instead.

Mahomes, Geno, Dimes

harvey, Skat, Tuten, Sampson, Najee, Dowdle, Tucker

JJ, JSN, Worthy, Egbuka, Pittman, Franklin

Bowers, Kelce

Both teams look pretty good. But you’d be better off taking an upside RB or WR than Dak, even if it’s a player you’re not that into right now. Things can change a lot during the season. You’re never starting Dak over Lamar or Josh.

Taking Hendo over JSN is fine.

It's Monday September 1st in the year 2025. The season begins in 3 days. But amazing things are still possible.

I think it turned out pretty well. Got some more value after that start.

Also drafted this hyper fragile, which is rare for me.

Thanks for the feedback Tarheels2222. Really good points about the QBs.

Just curious, but are you big into redraft as well as the tournament best ball? Just from what I remember, this is your 3rd year doing best ball, which is the same as me. Started in 2023, but I only do the ten man, non-tournament format. I'm going to stick with about 4-5 redraft leagues this year myself. It is definitely a bit of a transistion in mindset shifting from drafting best ball to redraft in alot of ways.

No problem! Hopefully my feedback ends up being good haha.

And you're correct, this is my third season firing volume at best ball. But I only play the big field tournaments.

As far as managed leagues. I play 3 redraft leagues and 6 dynasty leagues. 2 of them are home leagues and 1 of them is a 2+2 league. Of managed leagues, I much prefer dynasty to redraft.

And yeah, redraft is definitely a shift in mindset, due to trading and waivers being possible.

On the surface, best ball is definitely a crapshoot when you consider that you draft the team and let the player scoring do the rest. When the expected advance rate of most contests is 16.67%, the vast majority of your teams will be dead due to injuries, bad picks, etc. Once you accept that fact, it's way easier to deal with the risk and always try to draft the best team possible. The best of the best drafters in a given season advance rate is around 50%-75%, which is not always optimal. I'd rather have a 20-25% advance rate with a bunch of different combos than 50-75% where most of those teams likely have a concentration of 3-5 players that smashed. Last year, both Saquon and Henry were 35-40% advance rate players then both had poor week 15s eliminating tons of teams that they carried all season long.

The goal is that advancing teams are optimized as much as possible for weeks 15-17. There is a lot of game theory with regard to stacking, ADP value, roster construction, week correlating for playoffs, etc. Player takes are actually pretty low on the totem poll, imo, but you still need to have them. I usually lean more toward macro ADP takes than player takes. I.e., maybe you think the QBs in rounds 8-12 are all smashes, so that's mostly what you're drafting in that range and filling in the other positions elsewhere, but it's not necessarily concentrated to singular player takes. It's more important to build good teams that make sense, using the players as pawns in the endgame.

And while you look at something like BBM and think holy ****, there are 672,672 entries. That seems impossible. When you actually break it down, you don't actually have to be better than 672,671 teams.

2/12 advance from the draft room. Those 2 are then placed into 13 team pods for week 15, where 1 team advances. The week 15 advancing teams are then placed into week 16 pods of 16 teams where 1 team advances. And then the finals is 539 teams. So in reality, you have to beat 10 teams in your draft pod, beat 12 teams in week 15, beat 15 teams in week 16, and then hope for the best in the finals.

With that said, it's still a tall task, as the average max entry drafter (150 teams) is expected to make the finals once every 8 years. The are plenty of smaller contests where you chance to make the finals is higher.

But much like large field MTTs, the best skilled players still rise to the top in the long run. Justin Herzig, who many agree is the top best ball player, has made the BBM finals in all 5 years. He's also smashed other contests. And he's not the only one who has success year in and year out.

Anyone have a strong opinion Mims vs Tillman? Got offered a trade but seems like they're both just a coin flip for either of them to be worth anything

I like Mims more .

I prefer Tillman, as I think he has more upside. I don't think Mims will ever be a full-time WR that earns targets. Tillman can be that and has flashed at times.

But yeah, probably most likely that neither matters, especially in the long run.

Please don't let me down, Jauan.

Thanks for the feedback guys. Pretty much what I figured. I've leaned Tillman but once flacco is knocked out I'm worried about the QB situation.

Someone queued up the wrong Bengal

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gotta Chase that uniqueness

Mims but only in best ball (and it’s not a “strong” opinion, I’m just really high on that offense even if there will be 10000 mouths to feed). Neither is worth a roster-clogging bench spot in redraft, at least pre-week 1.

Giga 9ers

Purdy, Stroud, Penix

Tre, Pollard, Monty, Woody, Giddens, C Brooks

Nico, London, Pearsall, Jennings, Burden, Hollywood, ADM

Kittle, Pitts

Looks Purdy good.