AKo in SB on Dry Flop

We can just check/fold?

or

maybe even go crazy and check/shove if you think he stabs wide?

Cbetting seems not good on this board, since villain can float with random2 or raise you off your hand
Unless we plan on barreling turns.

Btw the pot size is a bit off, it's 84.

Rake and promo.

How would you play KK or AA in this spot is the first question I'd ask? In other words, think about your SB 3bet range first, then start thinking about how your actual hand interacts with the board. (Keeping in mind your hand is most like AA or KK rather than say TT-QQ, given your opponent is less likely to have an A or K etc.)

I mean, I'm checking KK or AA often enough to provide some protection for checking AK. Versus an opponent I know likes to stab I'm probably checking more. Versus an opponent who likes to peel/float I'm betting more.

While you have no info on your opponent, I think it's best to think along these lines, rather than allow your mind to say "why do I keep 3betting AK OOP and keep whiffing and keep x/giving-up or why c-bet flop when I'll just give-up turn or why go bet-bet-bet when I'll just get called down by middle pair?" etc.

All that being said, x-folding is not the end of the world, but opponents will notice (depending on how long they're at the table or whether they're regulars in the room). I don't mind x-raising either, for even though you have no board interaction your two overs are likely clean versus a stab.

Finally, sometimes AK wins at showdown, unimproved, especially HU in a 3b pot. And generally players bluff less than they should in 3bet pots, so when you check flop it doesn't always mean you're just giving up (and that's why x-raising sometimes or x-calling sometimes is beneficial, as it means those opponents who do bluff/stab can't do so without a second thought).

A lot of interesting options at this spr. I think cbetting this flop doesn’t do us any favors as we end up in no man’s land. I’d start with a check and sometimes crai, sometimes call and sometimes fold.

I think a crai gets a lot of folds, especially if he bets half pot or less. If he pots it we can safely fold. We’ll have plenty of overpairs to continue with.

I often post hands on this forum that I know I played wrong. I sometimes post hands that I thought I played right and played wrong. During and after the hand, I had no idea if I played this wrong or right. I have no experience with this spot. I play a tight raise 4x or fold in the SB. I also rarely get called. So I don't think I've ever been heads up OOP on a dry flop with AKo with no draw against a super strong range for a big pot. No idea whether you should x/f, x/c, b/f. What's your plan for the turn?

Results in 24 hours

The simplest approach would be to either check-fold, or commit to repping big PP's by triple barreling.

There are other lines you could take that involve check raising or donking later streets depending on the action. With no reads, I think our value is going to come from playing defensively and gathering some info. If we check-fold, I might muck face up, hoping he'll show his hand in response.

My standard line would be to check-call a small bet or check-fold to a bit bet, and occasionally start betting the turn, though I'll often just check again. I think there's value in playing AK as a bluff catcher in spots like this.

If you're not in this position very often, I wonder if your table image is just too nitty.

Also, you actually do have a draw. AK is drawing to six cards that will make you TPTK. And it's the nut no pair, so it has a modicum of showdown value. It may help to regard your hand that way, and consider that you'll either be ahead often enough or improve often enough to continue if your opponent bets.

I think we have two options - small bet for a mix of value/equity protection, or a check with plans to check/fold vs a large bet or check/call vs a small bet. Population plays are important imo for these spots - if players generally stab in these spots or play straightforward that gives you a general guideline on how to proceed.

The BTN raised a limper. Consequently, shouldn't we discount our A/K outs somewhat?

I don't think I understand the implication, or what inference we should make. Are you suggesting there are fewer A's or K's left for some reason, or that they wouldn't be good if we hit one?

The latter.

Why would we assume TPTK is no good?

Since the BTN raised a limper, I think we need to assume he has more A4s/A8/A9/K8/K9 vs. random hands, meaning we could be facing 2-pair if we hit the A/K. I would think we'd need to discount our 6 outs by 1 or 2 outs.

I think we go ahead and bet. I go $45 to $50. Make him think we are serious about our hand. If he raises, we can just sigh-fold. I hate check/calling. I might check/raise and just commit, but I prefer continuing my story.

Fair enough. I see the logic.

At the same time, any time we play AK as a raise, we could get called by AX that makes 2P when we just make TPTK. If the assumption is that TPTK isn't going to be the best hand often enough, then I'd guess we'd play it defensively when we do flop TPTK, rather than playing it for max value?

For that matter, V could have 99, 88, 44, or 98 here, so we could be drawing close to dead. If we're just going to assume V always has a hand when he raises pre and c-bets the flop, then the value of AK goes way down, and we should just auto-check-fold.

I think a reasonable middle-way approach would be to check-call and look to play some poker on later streets. Like I said in my first post, AK has some showdown value, and can be played as a bluff-catcher from OOP. The BTN opening range is going to have so many potential bluffs in it that it can't be terrible to play this as a check-call on the flop.

This would be my default, for sure.

Would likely be checking range here, we could try to shove if V bets something that suggests he isn't that strong ... but I'd really rather have some reads because people bet/call weak pairs. Esp. At MGM I think you get calls more often.

It's not really an issue of assuming that our opponent is always ahead when he bets, or that we shouldn't sometimes check-call with a whiffed AK. It's simply acknowledging that when we're drawing after the flop to make a pair with AK, we oftentimes aren't drawing to 6 clean outs.

Results

Hero checks. V jams. Hero says I fold. V shows 55. Hero mucks.

Interesting reveal.

If BN stabs with a normal sizing and we x/r he probably folds, and if we x-c he may xb turn, etc.

If we c-bet, he probably calls, and if we barrel turn he probably folds, unless he picks-up a gutshot, via a 6 or 7.

Key takeaway is that if you're confident villains are overbet shoving in these spots with merged hands, you can check fold AQ-AK all day without giving up much EV. I'd also x range on all non-broadway boards v these types and call it off with your overpairs.

Conversely, you can c-bet most broadway boards, fairly small, with gutshots (e.g. AQ on KT4) as well as value.

I lost the hand but thought: great hand to post with reveal.

I later found exploits of V. I played with him before. “Yeah, I gained weight. “

About the reveal: is a V more likely to be FOS on the first hand?

V was just a regular loose passive after this, trying to win the high hand, a few stupid bets but nothing crazy.

People are unpredictable. You don’t have a read when someone first sits down but I know playing the first hand at the table is tough, and I’m more apt to make mistakes while I count my chips, toss my MGM card, open my poker log, etc. A lot of hands I post here begin with: just sat down.

Just saying people are more often FOS on the first hand.

Interesting take. It's possible you're right. My gut instinct would have suggested the opposite. No one likes getting a good hand before they've even had a chance to adjust their seat height. I'd think it's rare for someone to sit down in a new game and start getting OOL immediately.

It's possible someone could sit down and get OOL right away. I've done it once or twice, but it's not normal, even for me, a fairly LAG player. The one hand that springs to mind, I opened 86cc UTG first hand at a new table, but I'd just come from another table, after winning a big pot against a guy I absolutely loathed, and was feeling a bit euphoric.

(I only remember the hand because it played out in an insane way - EP player flats with QQ, OMC jams a short stack with AA on the BTN, SB min-click 4B's with KK, BB tank-folds TT, I snap fold, QQ snap folds, and the flop comes - wait for it - Th7c5c. BB would have flopped top set. I'd have flopped an OESFD. Turn was the 9c. I would have stacked the BTN, and the BB, and probably the SB, maybe even QQ, plus won the $500 high hand.)

I think our value is going to come from further observation. Like, here, you watched him, and saw that he was a garden-variety low-stakes rec-fish doofus. Easy to exploit him. But you made that determination after seeing him play multiple hands, not based on this first hand, obviously, which is more likely to be a once-per-session-only occurrence.

I always play much tighter the first orbit. Im never ever FOS when I first sit down. But this V spewed his first hand, then stopped. Why? Maybe I should have just asked him, why go all in with 55 on the first hand