Live £60 MTT - Hand

UTG is very unlikely to bluff here vs cutoff and you when QJ got there. Both of you can still have some kings on the river. cutoff may have deceivingly checked back a king on turn to later get value from weaker pairs. You may have checked a king on river to induce a bluff (though that's less likely). At least one of you will have at least a pair, so he'll kind of have to rely on you not bluffcatching him when he went into the betcheckbet line where the second check excludes many strong hands from his range. so I feel like bluffing wouldn't appear as the best idea to him.

He likely has value, which will oftenly be KT which he slowed down with before because of kicker issues vs two callers on flop, but that now became two pair.

He can also have QJ himself.

Best case it's KJ, but I think it oftenly keeps barelling on turn and if not for some reason, then oftenly also bets less on river, since he'll be targeting weaker holdings after all. It wouldn't really make sense for him to slow down with KJ on turn and then when QJ gets there he suddenly bombs pot again.

He'll def have KTs in his preflop range and maybe KToff. So on the river his range will be something along

hands that beat you: {QJ(50%), KT(25%)}: 12 combos

hands you beat: {KJ(10%)}: 1.6 combos

The frequencies are estimated based on above combined reasoning.

Since he bets around pot on river you'd need 33% equity but you have 12%. Thus it's a fold.

Thanks mate.

I spoke him during my decision - he seemed pretty comfortable. I said, "Wow, do you really have two pair?". No Reply.

I then said "I have top pair". He then replied "That's a tough decision".

Im sure there must be a precise and unique way to read and interpret his live tell

"that's a tough decision"

maybe someone will read this and let us know

until then Ill see if I can come up with something

( and his other tell of "no reply" may have also some specific meaning in this context, though probably no unique one in general )

oh I just realised Ive completely forgotten T9s, T8s and TT in his range, sorry for that.

so villain will have a few more value combos that oftenly play this way (except for sometimes checking flop) that are ahead of us.

I’d fold with only 3,5bb involved voluntarily so far, but I’d also bet turn. Can anyone relate to that?

Yes, sorry my mistake when typing.

Hey bro,

Since you've been leaning toward a fold when you said you've top pair and asked villain if he really had two pair,

Villain stayed still to not give anything away and support your inclination while thinking how to react. He came up with the thought to induce a little doubt into your mind with his reply

"that's a tough decision".

He will have had confidence behind his words, it was a feint to make you secondguess

I think you did fold?

Call Me Maybe
Song by Carly Rae Jepsen

So, just to conclude, I did end up calling and he said "Good call" and showed 5s3s.

Put me in the blender for sure.

He did tell me afterwards when we spoke briefly that he would have taken the exact same line with KT, T9, TT, QJ and KJ.

hahaha

I quite liked the bluff in all honesty, I think if you have a few of those small suited connectors in your UTG range but have a plan in place for when you miss, I don't mind those kind of plays - shows some thought and execution. I think if an Ace drops on the river, I have a clear fold.

Also, CO said he folded KJ.

oh, you said "wow, do you really have two pair?"

that can show disbelief, so you've appeared to be leaning toward a call, I guess?

then it's the other way around, he wanted to induce doubt into your mind, but to make you fold instead.

same feint, different goal

sick call to make

Hmm, I'm not sure I have much practical advice to offer vs. a guy who's got 53s in his opening range off 17BB. Good call.

Blocking QJ probably helps and if you don't have the Qc that might help. But this is so non-standard it really just comes down to your reads and assessment of villain.

It's spew to open that hand UTG with that stack size. As played though yeah, I guess if he arrives on this river with that hand he almost has to bluff.

Your hand is effectively a bluff catcher. You're not beating any value combos so the question is whether he's bluffing enough? Considering he's showing up with 53 he almost certainly is, so nice call.

Yeah, having the Q and thus blocking QJ definitely helped my decision.

I once saw a guy call a huge AI river bet from a meek & mild fellow—who’d made a big turn bet—on a 87x7x board, holding 87, after announcing “I have a blocker”.

What do you do if CO had called on the river?

Clear fold if CO calls.

I should mention Announcer above didn’t get the chop he was hoping for with his 87 but he indeed had a blocker, two in fact!

Ive been blasted before on this topic but imo KQo is a clear fold preflop OOP with an 18 orbit stack and a long way from the money to an UTG raiser and CO caller (who could’ve won the pot on all four streets!) but you happened to catch the perfect pair of geese.