Ace Magnets

I think we need to flop bet KK 1/3 pot for protection. Maybe I like betting the turn anywhere from 1/3-2/3 pot. Reason why I bet turn and possibly so heavily is because I expect live low stakes population to over estimate the amount of pocket pairs lower than Aces and bluffs that bet the low card board pairing turn, and therefore call turn here inelastically with their own pocket pairs. The only issue with this line is we are going to see lots of weak Aces and face weird river bluffs where people decide to rip it with hands like 99 or even JJ because they don't know what to do. Again, these are just patterns I think I've noticed in my own experience at live low stakes. But as far as flop goes can't go wrong with 1/3 pot sized bet at a baseline, then adjust according to your own reads.

just cbet flop 1/2 PSB and get it over with. You get value from non-believers, sometimes an inexplicable fold from A4cc, maybe even a brutal cooler with a set, and this is a better line than x/f when he stabs with JJ. If he calls your cbet it's pretty certain he's going to check down anything less than the nuts so at least you get to see showdown.

Yeah, cbet. Whether or not he has an ace, he will be afraid of AA/AK/AQ and will not put a lot of pressure on you.

I'm fine with preflop.

I'm fine with our WA/WB flop check. ETA: Not really sure if WA/WB is just an old skool concept or what, but there is very little reason to bet this flop with this hand, imo. We're not getting 3 postflop streets of value against worse (so mixing in a check somewhere is fine). There's not really any draws to charge. He's likely never folding better. If he's behind he likely has all of 2 outs (and preflop suggests this is his most likely hand). Our hand needs zero protection from overs (would much rather bet TT here). If we're worried about balance then just check AA/AK here too (which I would a lot against a capable player).

Still doesn't seem to be much of a reason to bet the turn. Prolly have to lean to gritting our teeth and calling down against someone who is likely capable of applying pressure.

GcluelessNLnoobG

You're not going to get an ace to fold, especially against the table LAG. At 2/3, not a lot of players are going to take a stab at it. Happy to check it down. If the villain would take a stab at it, I'd bet whatever you would be willing to call on the river.

A LOT of live players monkeystab when checked to, it's the classic valuebluff line. They look down at JJ and think to themselves "it just doesnt feel right to check a hand this big" because they dont think in terms of what calls them, they just think in terms of how good their hand was and how often they get to play it. They dont understand the zerosum concept, to them a hand is like scoring points shooting pool. You dont get anywhere if you dont take a shot.

Yeah, flop and turn are tricky.. betting flop gets value sometimes, but checking is fine too since he’s probably not folding top pair. Just brace to call down if he stabs.

Which is exactly why we check/call the flop, right?

GcluelessWA/WBnoobG

absolutely, i dont think there's anything wrong with it, I just dont like guessing what their range is. I just think if we x/c we run into TP a lot, but if we cbet we run into stations w/underpairs & sometimes get TP to fold. Sunday night I get into the unicorn game and the punter gives me a disrespectful fold with TP on a A high flop. I show him a deuce (was going for value with A2). He's just never won a hand off me and is tired of paying my rent. Thats why I like just continuing with a cbet any time we 3bet, initiative is very important in LLSNL.

Grunch:

PRE - I probably would have gone larger with the 3B, at least $80, but $70 doesn't seem terrible.

FLOP - I'd mostly check from OOP when HU as the PFR.

TURN - I'd probably check again, and see what V does. If he checks back, I'd probably come out and bet river for a large, bluffy size.

Result: V checks back. River Ax Hero bets 75 and V folds.

Too big. Bet $25, they'll auto call with all their PP's hoping to beat some middling PP of your own.

River bet might be a smidge too big but it's still a rather small 40% PSB targeting pocket pairs who get to call one smallish bet to showdown, so I'm cool with it.

Gnicehand,imoG