UK Poker Championship - £560 Hand Analysis
Hi Guys.
This is a hand I played yesterday on Day 1A of the UKPC Main Event.
I'm in the CO. Blinds are at 800/1600 with a BB ante at 1600.
Folds to me - TdTc - open to 3500.
BTN calls. BB calls.
I start the hand with approximately 220k. SB has approximately 75k. BB approximately 125k.
Flop comes Th Ah 4c
Checked to me. I bet 5500. BTN calls. BB folds.
Turn is 8s. I bet 17500. BTN calls.
River is 6h
I check and BTN jams all in.
Thoughts?
BTN stack?
Entirely opponent dependent live. Is this an old nit type who never bluffs and would never value shove worse than a flush here?
Without that information and generally speaking I would call. Calling with a flush draw to that size on the turn shouldn't happen often unless it's like exactly KQs/KJs. In some situations I would just value shove the river. And I think you're just way too high in your range.
Not sure if postflop line is optimal, but it doesn't seem bad. I wonder if it's valid to go for a flop check-raise, or then overbet the turn if it checks through.
Entirely opponent dependent live. Is this an old nit type who never bluffs and would never value shove worse than a flush here?Without that information and generally speaking I would call. Calling with a flush draw to that size on the turn shouldn't happen often unless it's like exactly KQs/KJs. In some situations I would just value shove the river. And I think you're just way
No, opponent seemed pretty capable tbf.
That said, what else do you think he could take this line with and jam river? KhQx maybe? Some sort of AxXh?
A6 imo on that board after your check. He’d be 3betting A8 pre and raising A4 post. Unless I’m completely wrong and had like 97 but he wouldnt just call ott then or a complete bluff which would be odd after not leading before and on a board like that
Ill handle him as some kind of recreg:
after your big turn sizing he'll arrive on the river with hands that were pair + draws or combo draws, if he did not send some of them into a raise or jam earlier:
45hh, K8hh, KJhh, KQhh, QJhh, J9hh, 97hh, 89hh, 78hh
and maybe a few more depending on the wideness of his live range. all became flushes.
that's around 12 combos at 50% frequency -> 6 combos
he wont oftenly have any empty hands on the river, but let's give him the occasional 2 combos (for example QJ that was a double gutshot on the turn)
he will have hands we beat though:
AToff, A4s, A8s, 44 in case he did not raise them earlier,
so around 3+2+2+3 = 10 combos at 50% frequency -> 5 combos
occasionally 88 if he continued on flop and A8off if it was in his preflop range:
around 3+7 = 10 combos at 33% frequency -> 3 combos
A6s at almost 100% frequency in that line -> 3 combos
after your river check all of these hands are likely to jam assuming you'll oftenly be weaker and may call off,
so we're winning against a total of 11 combos (worse value) and 2 combos (air), so 13 combos which jam at 80% frequency, that's around 10 combos, while we're loosing against 6 combos.
since he jams a bit less than pot we only need around 33% equity but estimate to have over 60% and hence we call.
a river jam from you with TTT will be much better though,
he can put you on KQ QJ KJ J9s ... and pay you off with bluffcatchers that would check behind to showdown, and you make sure he doesn't find the occasional check behind with a rather strong holding.
with TTT, there's no checkfolding and getting away vs flushes here bar any live actualities
And, what did he have?
I folded mate. Went into the tank and folded.
I figured he wasn't putting in nearly 70% of his stack by the turn and then jamming that river with anything but a flush. He was playing pretty solid, ABC poker so I gave him some credit.
I discounted AT and sets due to him not raising and blockers. His felting range by the river for me had to be weighted towards flushes pretty much only. If he found a bluff with something like KhQs then fair play to him.
BTN only put in 35% of his stack through the turn.
The turn bet sizing was good at 17,500. That is close to 26.5% so not pot committing.
I actually think the fold was good on the river. BTN can have a bunch of KXs hands as well as other SC's and almost SC's (like J9s/J8s/etc.). I also think that had BTN had a set or two pair he would have gone all in on the turn at least some of the time. So odds are he has a flush.
The BTN jam is close to 84% pot. I doubt Villain would overbluff here though because the main draw got there. I also doubt Villain calls the turn with a gutter. If Villain has Ax he will check back the turn most of the time probably. Especially because the flush got there.
The one bet sizing I don't really like is on the flop. On an ATx flop with a possible flush draw out there my sizing would have been about 8400 because the flop smashes our range. Assuming BTN calls and BB folds it gives us a choice on the turn. We can size our bet at about 18,000 or we can jam. Now BTN may call with hands like QJs/J9s/97s or even KQs/KJs but even so we are at worst like 65% favorite to win.
Good fold. Played fine all the way. Like you said, if he can find a way to play A4 or KhQx that way in that situation, God bless him.
Was it a rebuy tournament?
we can change the variables a bit and check if it will make us lean more toward a fold:
if he plays his pair+draws and combodraws passively and rarely raises them earlier,
we can give him 12 combos at 80% frequency -> 10 combos
if he always raises his stronger two pairs and sets on flop or turn,
he will only have A6s on the river: 3 combos at 100% frequency -> 3 combos
after your river check he'll still see your range as rather weak overall and may go for value with A6s at 66% frequency -> 2 combos
so we're winning against 2 combos and loosing against 10 combos of his river jam which gives us
16% equity < required 33% equity
here, if we were winning against 5 or more combos, our equity would be sufficient for a call
Guys, this is early in a large field, $750+1 rebuy tournament. H, who is not going to rebuy, has 55 orbits, V, who is observed as competent ABC, has 17. V is not going to the river with ace rag or a gutshot, or set mining on the flop with 88.
Sometimes it can be that simple. V’s by far most likely hand on the flop is a gutshot royal. He jammed rather than bet 25K to make it look like a bluff, figuring H was strong and would crycall with a set or aces up. If he had 44 he raises the turn, if he has aces up he checks behind thinking AK won’t call a bet.
If he somehow found a bluff 5% of the time, he’s entitled to do that once in a while, as Bob Ciaffone once said.
Yep, +1 to above - sometimes, if it looks like a dog and barks like a dog - it's just a dog!
That fold actually gave me a boost in confidence and I played some good poker the rest of the day. Probably misstepped a few spots but squeezed through to Day 2 tomorrow with 15bbs.
Off tangent a but, but with 14bbs and the BB ante at 16000 (I'll be putting in 1/8th of my stack in the first orbit when BB) would you suggest shoving a little wider? I have no idea when the pay jumps start but I would imagine they'd be close. Currently 61 through out of 360 with 1 Day 1 to play and a turbo, so I would think there would be maybe 100 to 120 starting Day 2.
Looking at the chip counts, average is around 625k. I have 220k. There are currently only around 6 players with shorter stacks than me - the lowest being around 8bbs.
either villain is competent or he doesn't have ace rags. you can't have both.
Hero's river check isn't strong at all, his strong holdings, that don't have to be flushes, will win a lot more by outright jamming themselves and being bluffcaught or called by worse value.
He will so often be capped toward weaker Ax pairs and Tx pairs.
A fair question is what villain will think about how often these hands will pay him off.
one consideration is that villain may simply think that hero is always weaker since he capped himself with his check and thus try to go for value no matter what.
in that regard, a consideration that carries far more weight is if villain can have empty hands that turn into bluffs on the river.
natural ones that come to mind would be QJ and J9s that were a double gutshot and openender on turn.
we dont know if our live opponent would continue with them against our big sizing.
I had a look in wizard and the solve surely does, even against a large overbet. It folds gutshots like KJoff and KQoff though, and continues with all Kx and Qx flushdraws (what our opponent might also not do).
If we check river it does turn QJ and J9s always into a bluff no matter if one card is a heart or not. Blocking flushes wont matter since we'll never check a flush. With the bluff it tries to make us always fold king highs, Tx, JJ ... and at a low frequency Ax.
Only QJ are 15 combos already (without the flush QJhh).
He doesn't need to end up with them as often as solver does on the river and bluff them what he'd likely do to increase the profitability of a rivercall in any of the scenarios above
(the solve is headsup, not threeway, what could somewhat alter things a bit, considering it uses a smaller flop cbet sizing too. I guess J9s wont continue on flop through a call at all, and QJ maybe only continues with a heart, Ive no idea though about how it would really look threeway vs half pot cbet)
the above doesn't factor in any intuition, live reads and 6th sense perceptions of course
@b'eyelash
I contemplated "competent ABC poker player" now,
yeah guess he'll check behind scary flushboard on river with nonflush value holdings.
Would ABC players call flop threeway with QJoff (with a heart)? And then also call turn when QJoff became a double gutshot?
If they'd somehow arrive on river with QJoff, they prob wouldn't bluff though, right?
Well if he's ABC of that kind, then it's a clear fold. As you said, he may even fold A6s on turn,
and for hero river is a clear check too for the reason of same characteristics of (extreme) ABC opponents
Just of interest, the villain in this hand went on to finish 3rd in the overall event, cashing for £42,000.
This looks like a huge miss.
There are few universes where he simultaneously has too many flushes and too few aces. That would mean he frequently folds Ax on the turn but rarely/never folds flush draws. That's not unreasonable to assume, but you'll go to the turn with a lot more aces in his range than flush draws
- its relatively more rare to flop a flush draw.
- the prior probability on the turn of having an ace is much higher than having a flush draw. It's probably close to 3:1 aces vs flush draws.
- no matter what he does on the turn, he almost always have more aces than flush draws
- river flush completes, this necessarily further reduces the number of flushes he can have
So mostly he has an ace, and the problem becomes which value bet sizing choice is optimal. Its the one he gets too stubborn against when he has an ace.
But you don't even necessarily need to be winning >=50% of the time if you ship and he calls.
This looks like a huge miss.There are few universes where he simultaneously has too many flushes and too few aces. That would mean he frequently folds Ax on the turn but rarely/never folds flush draws. That's not unreasonable to assume, but you'll go to the turn with a lot more aces in his range than flush drawsSo mostly he has an ace, and the problem becomes which value bet si
Thanks for the input.
In my mind, would he just not check back his Ax hands on the river? Given my line and given the flush draw and back door straight come in?
What do you think he would do with 44 on the river?
