UK Poker Championship - £560 Hand Analysis
Hi Guys.
This is a hand I played yesterday on Day 1A of the UKPC Main Event.
I'm in the CO. Blinds are at 800/1600 with a
a) In general, I wouldn't rely on anyone in the entire world to unwaveringly follow one strategy, even if engraved in one's mind, because of ever-changing conditions (which may call for intentional adjustments) and disruptive factors as shifting affective states or unpredictable thoughts (which may unconsciously lead to adjustments).
b) we can think of our opponent as an average through all possible opp's (of certain kind) in field to account for the fallibility of the profile that we generate of him out of a finite and incomplete sample of reads and plays. the field as a whole will have unpredictable randomness of nonzero degree in any situation.
c) how capable is our opponent, what strategy is he going to play...
1) vs fish
2) vs topreg
3) vs unknown opponent?
the aforementioned idealized ABC strategy leaves him open to severe counterexploitation.
is he capable to play in the most optimal way vs us and not be outplayed? if we're sure about him fastplaying his strong value and passively playing his draws, we're able to take full advantage of it.
I dont think there's too many people who are always 3betting AJ
I 3b over 30% more often than the population and I'd flat AJ often there.
And there's a lot more aces he can have besides AJ
Also disagree that he'd always raise two pair
I dont think there's too many people who are always 3betting AJ
I 3b over 30% more often than the population and I'd flat AJ often there.
And there's a lot more aces he can have besides AJ
Also disagree that he'd always raise two pair
I personally think AJ from BTN vs a CO open is a 3b, but that's just me.
I have to say, given my line and the board, his two pair and sets raise either flop or turn - call, call, bet on this texture doesn't make sense to me (please consider making it make sense by all means haha).
Thanks again.
If you're going to call river I think it's better to jam for value.
As played I think this is generally an under bluffed spot. He would have to be turning weak Ax into a bluff to make this a call IMO, which certain players are certainly capable of. He likely calls preflop with all the weaker Ax, definitely calls flop and probably calls turn. On the river in villain's shoes if you arrive with a weak ace it's fairly intuitive to put you on AK or something when you check, and jam a weak ace to try to get you to fold.
As stated by someone else he should have more Ax combos than flush draws so if you plan to call anyway it's likely better to just jam yourself. That's because most players in villain's spot snap check back an ace.
I think handwringing over how much AJ in particular he has is a distracting red herring. There are more important, higher level things to consider planning river action.
I'm struggling to reconcile "he's aggressive enough that he would always 3-bet AJ" with "he never has anything but a flush when he jams the river."
most decisions have advantages and drawbacks related to outcomes and actions on subsequent streets across different parts of your ranges (draws, value, air, ...).
positives for calling two pair in villain's shoes without pure balancing considerations:
you allow your opponent to barrel off bluffs like KQ that simply miss in most cases
you make sure you dont isolate yourself vs potentially only stronger two pairs or sets or high equity draws
you may represent missed draws on river yourself and be paid by bluffcatchers
you may even get away and save chips on really bad runouts
you may think about folding if both opponents show significant strength
and so on ...
nothing absurd. that's a bunch of thoughts that may be floating through opponents' minds at any time and subsequently lead to them playing their hand carefully if they're not feeling like going full throttle.
