QTs OOP 3! v TAG

His range is very strong(LJ vs UTG). You basically only beat AK. And he can easily have a lot of pot control hands QQ–AA. Your HH only proves that.

x/c

I think we’re supposed to have flop leads on this texture and we have the perfect hand to donk with. As played I’m probably check raising turn and following through unless the river is a non heart JQKA.

Fold pre

When villain checks back the flop, he seems weighted toward QQ+/AK. JJ/TT should bet with a set on the wet flop. Some light 3! that missed should also bet. If he made a good draw with AKs/AQs or some light 3!, he would probably cbet that. I would tend to think your flush should be good, as he probably isn't checking a higher flush draw.

Yeah his 3-bet range is super strong here.. I’d just check/call turn and not get fancy since you’re mostly up against overpairs or AK.

You are 57% on the flop, 38% on the turn against black aces. There really isn't much point in betting though. It is possible, you could have donked the flop. On the flop, you were a favorite versus overpairs and a bigger favorite against his range.

given this equity the best play would probably be to just c/shove flop, no?

I'm probably folding pre against this guy. But here we are in an interesting spot.

The flop is the decision point because we have range and nut advantage and good draws. V has 16 AK combos against 15 overpairs and we have more JJ/TT. We have redraws against his 6 AQ/KQ.
So I agree with Omaha that it's a good spot for a donk to fold out all his AK except AhKh. V cannot blast off here given the board, so a donk cannot be terrible.

Ap: when we x flop I don't think we have many delayed turn donks except maybe 99. It's too thin. If our read is right that V doesn't make a lot of thin value bets, we might see the river for free. I prefer to x and evaluate

I fold preflop the first time cuz I doubt weak suited broadway is profitable for me in this early of position.

I also fold preflop the second time cuz with no other significant dead money it is only possible (at best) for one of us to be profitable in a raked game. I'll let you decide if you think that's going to be us raise/calling the 3bet OOP with a troublesome dominated hand or the solid pro in position with initiative and most likely a dominating hand.

I'm assuming we were going for the check/raise to start applying some pressure, so I'm fine with the flop. Him exercising his option of checking back is partly why he is going to destroy us long term thanks to position.

Most people don't 3bet preflop to check back a flop to then fold on later streets. It is mostly a method of pot controlling / inducing spazztards (like us). About the only exception is AK, and even AK is going to cbet this overs + gutshot flop a decent amount of the time. So if we're going to get him off the hand, we'd better prepare to make some massive overbets (and would we really go for a turn check/raise with a monster knowing that he might check it back again?). So I just check again and try to realize my equity.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I fold pre-flop. If I called, I'd go ahead and donk the flop. He can't like this flop very much -- it crushes us -- so he'd be crazy to raise unless he has AhKh or JJ or similar?

Now that we are here, I just check/call and maybe check/raise depending on how much he bets and how he acts (you obviously know him pretty well).

I thought about donking flop in hindsight but it didn't occur to me at the time.

I will add - he sees me as very punty and aggro but he's still a fairly ABC player - he's going to bet his thick value and premiums at high frequency IP, he'll bet some draws IP but also knows I check-raise light a lot. When he checks back flop I give him a very linear range capped at AA.

Also to those advocating a donk, what size are you donking? Are you donk 3-betting? donk calling? or donk folding?

Small bet turn

What does betting small accomplish? I would just x/c. There is no value bet, bluff, or semibluff here.

never lead flop. looks like basically pure geo leading ott and giving up bricks. if you check, mostly c/c which makes sense to me (you forgo attacking most of his misses / pot controls when he decides to reopen ott and probably just pile in money vs a too strong range that will feel compelled to call down bc he induced or top of range or whatever)

interesting flop note if u x and face cbet, this is actually the qt combo that raises the least (the others basically pure x/r)

this type of hand vs reg is mostly worthless to discuss here imo and really really needs to be solved to understand how combo and range plays

Thanks a lot for this eye-opening analysis. This makes me think I'm (and possibly a lot of us are) over-donking on nut/range-favoring boards like this as preflop 3b caller. I would have never guessed that you cannot GTO lead some % of flops in this situation.

It also makes me think that folding preflop is even better than I thought. If we cannot GTO lead a flop this good for our hand and our range, we probably cannot play marginal suited broadways profitably oop in general unless we have very high confidence in exploit reads on V.

eh id probably call pre at least some of the time. its a very small 3b and you have the dead 5 from the limp so its even smaller effectively.

i dont think the flop is great for our range or our actual hand. 2 broadway boards make his range have a ton of equity and i dont think you have a notable nut advantage here (2p+ for oop around ~10% but going to be super range dependent, and 2p+ for ip around 7.5%, but hes a fairly large equity favorite 55vs45 and going to handle board changes except maybe a 7 reasonably well). our actual combo is weird intersect of good equity vs anything but great equity vs almost nothing that continues deeper into the hand, and decent sdv.

the boards u want to lead are the ones where he doesn't have anything > 1p and overpairs are devalued, along with a bunch of kind of meh equity hands in his unpaired broadways. think even swapping the Jh for 7h here changes the strategy considerably

i also just dont see much reason to lead our actual hand. ip going to play fairly well vs our exact combo on probably every turn except a T and i guess a 7

This flop hits our range more than his, I would think? I guess it depends on how wide he 4bets, but if it's QQ+, he can't like it too much. We have all the sets, JT, straights, etc. -- or at least we should.

Turn 80 - J♥ T♣ 8♥ 6♦

Check, V thinks 30-45seconds and checks back

River 80 - K♠

H checks, V bets 45...

id fold, very value heavy, its hard for me to find any bluffs here that havent bet already

i honestly think vs 3bets at 1/3, when OOP we're better off asking ourselves if our hand is good enough to 4bet (or set mine deep). if neither than muck.

I think it was played fine, including calling the 3!. Would fold the river. TT+/AQ+ beat you. That is pretty much all value 3!s. He could have some light 3!s even with the tight configuration. However, some of those that missed might have bluffed before the river.

No comment about river play. Turn check is bad unless you have some kind of thought process about why betting small turn for value is too thin.

IMHO, if you think that betting small on turn for value is too thin, you should be folding QThh preflop to the 3bet.