A99TJ

I would probably fold to the x/r - we really just have clubs and a gutter, but we're probably not getting paid on a turn club. As played would check behind - I would think he's only x/potting 6 way with QQ/JJ, or maybe QJKT.

Do we have any indication that he's gonna fold top set on this turn if we pot it with these stacks? "A fish that overplays hands" I'm gonna guess we don't and since stacks are terrible for us to bet turn big and be able to have any kind of stack to fold out top set on non board pair river it seems pretty tough to get him off a set here. Seems best to take a free card and realize our equity and pray he has some kind of KQJ65 2nd NFD hand

I'm fine with pre and flop. I check behind turn.

FYI - He is OED with his nut flush draw, protected to the nut str8 on the top end. No issue with flop call.

Two ways you can play this. Checking behind as the turned set shouldn't be good the vast majority of the time, or betting 1/3 pot to set up a big river bluff on an unpaired river that doesn't make your hand. Either way 99 should be behind. Agree with LD that you probably can't make the big bluff on the turn.

Well the big issue with that is that even tho fish can't always logically hand read, if they play enough poker they do get a sense of when a line just "feels off" and betting 1/3 on turn we are not repping a straight. Stacks are just awful for us to run any kind of bluff. Sometimes the advantage we get in a hand is when a "scare card" comes on the turn we get to fully realize our equity for just the price of the flop call.

Hand is an OK bluff candidate, the issue is awkward pot sizes reduces fold equity. Smaller bet with plan to blast all non-pair rivers is def not a bad line.

I'd check back and consider turning our hand into a bluff on some rivers. Presumably villain range is very qqxx heavy.

Oh you're right - missed the 8 completing the Q high straight. I don't think we're deep enough to set up a bluff/bet the turn - I think it's clear he is QQ heavy, and I think if we bet even 1/3 pot we get jammed on a lot with like a 1.5 SPR OTT.

I've played a lot of live and played with fish of all types, some that are just looking at their own cards and board interaction and others that play 80%+ and are action junkies but more sophisticated and have a clue what's going on

I've heard plenty of fish say stuff like...."you didn't bet that big so I didn't put you on a strong hand". Now they're not exactly breaking down ranges but they're paying attention to some of the nuances of the game

If I turn 2nd nuts I'd just go 2/3 with the intention of folding to a raise and chk'ing back river