QTs OOP 3! v TAG
1/3 NLHE 8 handed
V - Good TAG. Plays full time for a profit. Has been running well against me lately. He is capable of b
Betting small on the turn for value is too thin, because you are only slightly ahead of his range. You are 37% against QQ+, which is a big part of his range, based on preflop and checking flop.
If Villain really has QQ+ and checked back the flop with an overpair, then why didn't Hero fold preflop?
It's just not logically consistent. If Hero is worried about QQ+ so much, then Hero should have folded pre.
I would say that there is a very good chance that Villain has a lot of AK in his range. That is why calling to the 3bet was fine.
And now that Villain checked back the flop, there is still a lot of AK in his range. If we bet small with QThh on the turn, we'll get value out of all the AK combos.
If you guys really think that Villain's range is very QQ+ heavy after checking back flop to the point that we shouldn't go for value at AK with a small turn bet, then that means that you are ranging Villain on mostly QQ+ pre.
QThh is super dominated by QQ+ pre, so folding pre would have been better if we're so worried about QQ+ and don't put Villain on much AK.
Hero may be ahead of villain's range on the turn, but maybe 60% equity versus his range. That doesn't justify making a small value bet.
On the flop, hero was way ahead of villain's range, so donking for value might be reasonable then.
I would donk 50, we have a nice nut advantage. If he raises we should ship.
Result:
Spoiler
I check river, V bets 45 and I fold, we both show to be friendly, he has T9♠♠
Betting small on the turn for value is too thin, because you are only slightly ahead of his range. You are 37% against QQ+, which is a big part of his range, based on preflop and checking flop.
Are you so sure about your opinion that betting small on the turn for value being tok thin?
Maybe you should check the results and then ask yourself whether you want to adjust your assumptions.
PRE - open larger over a limp, especially with so many opponents to get through.
FLOP - check in flow. Raise if he c-bets small.
TURN - I think I probably lead out for a large size, like full pot.
