DBBP: A9 on 966 // NFD + Wrap on K52
Double board bomb pot, 50 each
Hero has 3k
BTN is a solid pro with 10k
Everyone else is a fish with 1-2k
Hero is in the CO with Ah 9h 4c 3c
Pot 300
Flop 1: 9d 6d 6s
Flop 2: Kh 5c 2h
SB checks
BB checks
MP checks
HJ checks
Is this hand good enough to bet?
What is the correct bet size?
Is this hand good enough to call a pot-sized check-raise from a 2k stack?
9 Replies
I would check, our draws on bottom are nice but not all to the nuts, and our equity on top is probably low. Facing a check raise would be terrible and we probably have to fold.
Also worth noting the top board has two of our outs.
With 4 fish at the table I wouldn't bluff/ stab too much.
Against somewhat competent/nitty opponents and 6-handed, I think trying to take this down can work. Bare Kings shouldn't x/raise you and you block 99xx/96xx/A6xx. So you won't get x/raised too often if players know what they are doing. If bare KK calls you OOP and you play this heads up on turns and rivers, good things can happen.
However, fishy players will check/raise all their KK and some shitty 6xxx, though, and you can't continue against that as you have very little equity on top and only a draw on the bottom.
So versus Kings you only have 20% on top and flipping the bottom. That's almost exactly 33%, so if villain was 1200 deep, you would be break even against KK.
Vs 6xxx you have less than 10% on top and 66% on the bottom, so again only slightly above break even if villain moves in with 1200$
With a 2k stack that will always go in on turns, you don't get the right odds.
Regarding OmahaDonk's important observation, I agree and would add that not only are two of your outs spoiled on the top board, you might also get into the scenario of making your straight on the bottom and then facing someone who made a higher straight with their 6xxx hand (if a 3 or 4 were to come on the bottom)
Edit: You could of course also argue that fish would bet out their sets/ trips more often and good players would do more range checking from the earlier positions, so it kinda depends.
I'm betting flop $100-150. 6h we're gonna get thru everyone a fair bit if no one has a 6 on this board. We also have a 9 blocker which will keep BTN from raising us much ever even if he has a 6. We also have enough going on the board to call a c/r. And we get some hands like dry JJxx to fold
If we get c/r here, we are most likely drawing to half the pot which is not what you want to be doing in bomb pots. I think we take the free card. Against several fish as you describe, we may even get some value out of 2nd nut flush type of hands on the bottom board by checking back the flop.
Good point on the top board blocking two of our outs. I didn't even see that.
I'm betting flop $100-150. 6h we're gonna get thru everyone a fair bit if no one has a 6 on this board. We also have a 9 blocker which will keep BTN from raising us much ever even if he has a 6. We also have enough going on the board to call a c/r. And we get some hands like dry JJxx to fold
My first instinct was to bet half pot. I agree that we would get this through fairly often. Then I started to think about what a disaster it might be if someone check-raised for full pot.
I like a bet of 100-150. While donβt want to get c/r you have to consider frequency, and any desirable player at your table is often either leading a dry six or check/calling with it. I dont see c/r with it but ymmv
I also donβt consider getting c/r a disaster, you might have won half the pot. But just fold and move on to next hand.
I also check. BTN?