Semi-bluff or a value bet?
$1/$2
8 people at the table
My stack: $680. It's around the average for the table.
I'm in the straddle, $5 (everybody makes these bets so I do them too thought I don't really know whether it benefits me or not).
My hole cards: A♣️ 7♣️
5 people call the straddle, I check. $30 in the pot
Flop: 9♣️ 7♠️ 3♣️
I check. UTG+1 (LAG and a pretty bad player overall) bets $20. Two more people call (a tight-ish recreational player in the CO and a regular on the BTN). Two people fold. $90 in the pot.
I check-raised to $120. My logic was to raise 3x + 1 for every caller. And I suppose I miscalculated the size of the bet 😂. Everyone folded.
I was glad to take the pot but here's the question: with 14 outs, I guess I could be value-betting here.
What would you recommend in a spot like this: check-raise to a smaller amount to keep more people in the game or just call and bet for value with more confidence if I improve later on?
7 Replies
You probably had about a 35% chance of making a flush. It sounds like you stumbled into it, but you made a great play with a semi-bluff. Don’t overthink it.
A huge amount of your profit in this spot comes when people fold.
dont check raise this, you want them in, do you see why?
I understand that I’ll have a very solid hand (A-flush, trips or 2-pair) by the river more than 50% of the time. So since I’ll be winning it at showdown most of the time, I might wanna win it at showdown getting one-pair combos to pay me along the way. Right?
I’m not sure what would bring more money into the pot by the river - a check-raise on the flop or betting on future streets. You think it’s betting on the turn and river, right?
we're trying to 'cooler' someone here with the king high flush, maybe even 2 of them if theyre that bad.
If I don't donk to start building a pot, I like the check/raise. They will come along with a lot of hands, and we have a pair of 7s, so taking down this pot is not a bad outcome. I really don't want to flat vs. three players, see a bad card for me and have to fold on the turn to a big bet. I guess you could call a bet on the turn and hope to bink a club (or 7, which is probably good, or A, which might not be good), but will you even get paid with that line?
FWIW, I don't think the K-high flush is folding to the check/raise.
Another thing I’m thinking about is barreling again on the turn. The “flop aggressor” status should give me some extra fold equity when semi-bluffing on the turn.
Am I making sense with this?
