1/2: AQ on QT5 facing a $550 donkshove into $60
Okay so in normal circumstances, I’d just snap muck to this crazy overbet jam here but this hand happened immediately after V lost $700+ in the below hand:
I didn’t see flop action but the board is QJ93r, 3 way with V in the middle, pot is $50-100ish. Both check to BTN who checks back. River is Tx, first guy checks, V jams $700, BTN calls. V has K9o and BTN has AK. Super fishy of him to just overjam 7x there with the second nuts.
Another hand earlier: I open $15 UTG with AQs, he 3b $45 MP, I jam $300, he snaps with 99 and scoops.
So here’s the hand that happened immediately after his $700 river punt.
I have AcQs on BTN and make it $15 over 2 limps, SB calls, he limpcalls, CO calls.
Flop ($60): QcTc5s
SB checks, he snap shoves $550, CO folds, I cover (SB is ready to fold)
Wwyd?
15 Replies
Fold.
Just fold everything that isn't a set against this sizing. If you had QT, AKcc or KJcc we could talk about it.
The 700 punt is bad, but somewhat understandable ... Kx looks like the nuts to a lot of 1-2 players here, and he might have been confused about the pot size and/or decided that "nobody could have AK".
With the current hand, people are rarely tilted enough to make your hand a call from losing the previous hand IMO.
Like I'd guess it's something like 10-1 where people think the previous hand tilted somewhere to them actually being tilted and punting another 250bb off with a 10x overbet shove.
Also compare to the previous hand where he just shove 7x pot with 2nd nuts, oblivious to the nuts ... now consider that if he's playing the same mentally and has QT/55.
You even block NFD hands, which are the obvious tilt shoves. KcJc/Jc9c are basically flipping with your hand. QT or 55, is not.
If we give him "good" straight draws with a flush blocker and just the two obvious "nut" hands:
ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 P...
Holdem, Generic syntax
Board - QcTc5s
PLAYER_1 AcQs
PLAYER_2 Jc9,KcJ,QT,55
16830 trials (exhaustive)
All-in Equity
[table=head]|Equity %|Wins Hi %|Ties Hi %|Wins Hi Count|Ties Hi Count|
AcQs|36.8033%|36.7142%|0.1783%|6179|30|
Jc9,KcJ,QT,55|63.1967%|63.1075%|0.1783%|10621|30|
[/table]
...you are crushed and should fold.
Even if we assume he's tilted and is shoving any draw with a big flush blocker:
ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 P...
Holdem, Generic syntax
Board - QcTc5s
PLAYER_1 AcQs
PLAYER_2 Jc9,KcJ,Kc9,QT,55,9c8,(cc:30%)
31680 trials (exhaustive)
All-in Equity
[table=head]|Equity %|Wins Hi %|Ties Hi %|Wins Hi Count|Ties Hi Count|
AcQs|50.4545%|50.4072%|0.0947%|15969|30|
Jc9,KcJ,Kc9,QT,55,9c...|49.5455%|49.4981%|0.0947%|15681|30|
[/table]
...it's a high variance marginal spot. He needs to be shoving dominated hands like KQ/QJ, or complete insanity.
FWIW I doubt I'm ever folding AcKc/AcJc/KcJc, although I might mentally prepare myself before I put the money in.
Not folding TPTK to a possibly tilting player on the flop. Just reload if you don't spike the ace if you're wrong.
Yeah, not folding.
Snap call he’s never ahead. Probably has a combo draw a lot, maybe we’re freerolling vs AQ or he just has a worse kicker.
Snap call he’s never ahead. Probably has a combo draw a lot, maybe we’re freerolling vs AQ or he just has a worse kicker.
Snap call? He jammed 275bb into a pot of 30bb lol. How can you snap call with one pair?
Combo draw makes sense, but KJcc is so far ahead of AQ equity-wise on this board that the price isn't even right to call. I also don't see why Villain can't have two pair here. Based on the K9 hand, his MO seems to be "have good hand, go all-in." Maybe he has AQ but does he really have worse one pair hands than that? I wouldn't even be surprised to see Villain show up with something ridiculous like KK here.
Need more evidence that Villain is on monkey tilt to call off here, considering how much of a disaster it is to be against QT or 55. If he was down to his last $200 and this was more of a "F it, I'm going home" jam, I would be on board with calling.
That shove is always nutted or combo draws, I’m folding TPTK all day.
Snap fold.
From what we have seen so far, Villain is making these moves with a linear range that's too wide for the sizing, not randomly shoving with air or overvaluing second pair. He jammed the second nuts last time and GII pre with 99. No reason to believe he's doing this with worse than Q5s (maybe T5s if he limp/calls it), and honestly this kind of feels like 55.
If he keeps doing this too often for it to be 2p+ in this spot, or shows down worse judgment, we can reevaluate and his massive overbets will still be around to call later.
Just fold everything that isn't a set against this sizing. If you had QT, AKcc or KJcc we could talk about it.
The 700 punt is bad, but somewhat understandable ... Kx looks like the nuts to a lot of 1-2 players here, and he might have been confused about the pot size and/or decided that "nobody could have AK".With the current hand, people are rarely tilted enough to make your hand a call from losing the previous hand IMO.Like I'd guess it's something like 10-1 where people think the pre
Not folding TPTK to a possibly tilting player on the flop. Just reload if you don't spike the ace if you're wrong.
Snap call he’s never ahead. Probably has a combo draw a lot, maybe we’re freerolling vs AQ or he just has a worse kicker.
lol always???
The other night I was playing a fish was always overbet jamming flushdraws on flop
Snap fold.From what we have seen so far, Villain is making these moves with a linear range that's too wide for the sizing, not randomly shoving with air or overvaluing second pair. He jammed the second nuts last time and GII pre with 99. No reason to believe he's doing this with worse than Q5s (maybe T5s if he limp/calls it), and honestly this kind of feels like 55.If he keep
Thank you guys - I generally just fold here and get shown like KQ and beat up myself for making such a tight fold vs tilted villains - so I ended up calling here.
He shows 55.
It's an easy call against a maniac or someone obviously tilted.
It's a fold vs. someone who overbets when he has a very good hand that isn't the nuts.
Avoiding being results oriented here, but a fair amount of time, if someone is tilted and they have a strong made hand that is vulnerable, they will overbet jam, especially on a relatively wet board, because they just want to win one and not be out drawn.
lol at snap-anything.
If he keeps doing this too often for it to be 2p+ in this spot, or shows down worse judgment, we can reevaluate and his massive overbets will still be around to call later.
No, they won't. Sooner or later he'll go broke.
On the other hand, if we double him up, we have a shot of getting it back plus interest.
