AA in LJ on a Scary Turn
1/2. Rake 6+3 to 60. Max 500. Table has four transparent loose passives, two bleeding newbies, hero, and V. Most of the hands are limped pots multiway.
V (600+) is a socially observant gentleman. He forks his bets badly between limps, calls, and raises (no open-limping). He’s the only one at the table who has so far 3bet: Over 110 hands, something like 65/20/3. He has punished the limpers with his raises, once with A4s in the LJ. On later streets in the multiway pots, he has tank-called large bets on the turn and won four times, two of them hero calls against the newbies. When he tanked-called, I'm pretty sure he was correctly inferring his opponent's range. If he stopped limping so much pre, you might think he was a pro. He has run the table and built a huge stack. He also just won the $400 high hand and asked the floor if he could just put the four black chips on the table to make his stack 1K+. If only everyone could have such a great night!
Hero (325) is a nice person but now disliked on the table because he called no limps, only raised. For the first two hours, hero was completely card dead but binked good hands on two flops after checking pre in the BB. Five hands ago, hero went on a heater. Hero open-raised three times and 3betting once. Each time, everyone folded. The second time, people complained when hero scooped the blinds. This is the sixth hand in that series after the card-dead one. Everyone is now paying attention to the hero. During the tank-calls, hero is sweating, a long-Covid symptom. Fortunately, he's wearing an undershirt with armpit sweat-pads.
OTTH
V opens 12 UTG. Hero raises LJ to 35 with AhAd. V tank-calls.
Flop (61): 8h9cJs
V checks. Hero bets 50. V tank-calls.
Turn (161): Qs
V now tank-checks. Hero?
20 Replies
Check flop check turn. If everyone is suspicious of hero 3b huge.
Is V's preflop 3bet calling range around JJ-88,AQs-A9s,A5s-A2s,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,AQo-AJo,KJo+? Or is that too wide?
Given positions he’s probably flatting frequently with QQ and AK. I don’t think he has as many offsuit combos as you listed but it’s possible. I doubt he’s calling with A9s as well.
In the hand, I was thinking the opposite. After raising four times pre, V thinks hero is FOS and wants to look him up. I guess it matters that hero has not yet showed down a hand. In hero's wins in the BB, Vs mucked.
Given positions he’s probably flatting frequently with QQ and AK. I don’t think he has as many offsuit combos as you listed but it’s possible. I doubt he’s calling with A9s as well.
If QQ-88,AQs-ATs,A5s-A2s,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,AJo+,KQo+ is V's 3bet calling range, hero is way ahead on the flop, 68 to 32.
In the hand, I was thinking the opposite. After raising four times pre, V thinks hero is FOS and wants to look him up. I guess it matters that hero has not yet showed down a hand. In hero's wins in the BB, Vs mucked.
We’re not checking to trap, we’re checking because this board smashes his range. The hands that missed are mostly close to drawing dead, keeping them in is fine.
Against all Vs? I’m obviously biased by results, but I truly thought the turn was the inflection point. I thought V would call even with A9 on the flop.
In the hand, I was thinking the opposite. After raising four times pre, V thinks hero is FOS and wants to look him up.
I would bet this is the exact same thinking that made OmahaDonk suggest you raise bigger.
You've been opening a lot and 3bet once recently, people who have any kind of metagame aren't going to be opening A5s UTG here ... they are going to be playing hands that are fine if you call and/or can call a 3bet. If you make it insanely big he might still fold, but I'd guess he's _much_ more likely to call a raise to $50 now and might even go insane vs. $80-$100 when he never would have 20m ago.
Against all Vs? I’m obviously biased by results, but I truly thought the turn was the inflection point. I thought V would call even with A9 on the flop.
Again, I'd doubt he has A9s in range. He might even open fold it, and he's probably more likely to 4bet than call.
Even if he has it, I don't see him x/c flop with it unless he's tilted or has a very bad read.
AJs/ATs/KK/KQs/KJs/KTs/QQ/QJs/JTs/TT/T9s maybe even 87s/77 ... those are the hands you can maybe get value from on the flop (esp. for this huge size).
On the turn you are in the bad place.
V opens 12 UTG. Hero raises LJ to 35 with AhAd. V tank-calls.
Flop (61): 8h9cJs
V checks. Hero bets 50. V tank-calls.
Turn (161): Qs
V now tank-checks. Hero actually checks back
River: 4d
V quickly checks. Hero?
That 4 might look like an A if you squint, but it isn't.
I'd not be happy calling even 40 and I'd much rather call it than bet it.
The snap check could mean a lot of things, but my first guesses would be "my hand is trash now" or "my hand can't/shouldn't bet for value, but maybe AK bluffs or one pair bets and I can call" ... or maybe "lol, KT is still the nuts and I can't check raise if I don't check". NOT I've got KQ/KJ and am going to check/call, but that's possible.
Had a quick glance at GTOwiz and it pure checks the river with your combo. and 2 others. AsAd goes nuts ... saying that all the river bets and checks with AA have decent/similar EV, so maybe not as grim (vs. a robot).
One interesting thing is that robot V donks turn for 33% pot about 60% of the time, and then TT hands that check turn open shove river (along with bluffs that humans don't have) ... so the V range on the river is significantly weaker here.
Also worth mentioning that robot H checks or bets 50% pot on flop (75% pot happens 1.2% of the time, but would just ignore it).
Scary board for AA, but you’re still way ahead of most of his range. I’d lean to a value bet to charge his draws and weaker pairs while keeping some control.
Last question:. In most cardrooms, V shows first. In our family home games for a century hero always showed. If you made V (my father, brother, nephew, etc.), they tied the mean action to when you hit your brother. So 2025 MGM Springfield's rule is V shows first. Is hero a "gentleman" if he shows?
The question is not whether you are ahead. The question is whether you are ahead of his calling range. Given the recent history, I'd make a suck bet of 50. He's going to call you light because he's thinking you're stealing the pot.
I don't hate betting the flop although this size is too big. Probably a good spot for a checkback though.
Turn and river are clear checks IMO. On the river I would be afraid of a trap here. Even a hand like QJ might elect to bluff catch. I would just turn my hand over on the river but waiting to show makes more sense from a strategical point of view. At a random $1/$2 table I would rather just keep the game moving. I probably put too much value in being friendly at the table too.
I don't hate betting the flop although this size is too big. Probably a good spot for a checkback though..
In my excitement, on the flop, I forgot to subtract the rake. I was already thinking 2/3 pot is too high but “kinda just felt like” he’d call draws and Jx, and I can fold to a big raise.
At this point I was thinking, I want as much money in the pot. I guess the question is whether he ever calls with worse.
Action on hero. Who shows first at showdown?
Results in 24 hours.
I might say, "two pair is good" as I check or something similar ... but very unlikely to show first unless V twitches for a few seconds like he really doesn't want to show his hand, and even then it's probably worth knowing wtf he opened EP with and called your 3bet OOP.
Results
Hero bets 80.
V goes into the tank again. After 25 seconds, V asks hero, how much do you have? Hero puts out his chips. Hero sucks at counting chips. How much do I have behind? Only 135! Did I get myself pot-committed? ****. Hero asked himself, do I call a raise? Anyone on 2+2 help me?
V finally calls. Dealer says, “let’s see a hand.” Hero gets ready to flip his cards, looking at V. “Let’s see a hand.” Hero flips over AA. V mucks, bummed he lost the hand but amused by hero’s holding.
Table loved it. People complemented me on my boldness against the table bully. From this point on, everyone had a great time, betting instead of limping, happily still calling bets, only now bigger ones. V said, “I couldn’t figure out what you had. Why did you check the turn?” I said, “I wanted to know you didn’t have a T.” He did not ask, why bet the flop? I therefore thought I played it great, and the turn was the inflection point. Strat forum at 2+2 never ceases to surprise me. Who cares if Rembrandt should have checked AA on a coordinated board that smashes the Villain’s range? To Rembrandt and everyone else at the table but V, this hand just felt great.
Did V have AJ? I never asked because people are FOS. I regret not making V show first, if that is indeed the rule. How many people on this forum would make V show first?
How could it be that he has to show first if you bet river and he called? If it went check check each casino has different rules on who shows first, most make oop show.
I usually wait at showdown until something happens but if he says “You’re good” or announces a hand I can beat I just fast roll, unless there’s some negative history with V such as him being rude or slow rolling in the past.
