Turn Puke vs CRAI

What's his range? If we give him 22/33/A2s/A3s/AT/54s then we have about the right price to call. If we exclude A2s/A3s we're crushed. If we add A3o unsuited we snap call.

Older ABC guy never bluff-shoves here. You’re only ahead if he overplays AJ/AT, but most likely he’s got sets or A3s. Gross spot but easy fold vs this type.

Sorry, I have no experience playing this flop, but I say fold the turn.

I assume you went $20 expecting some folds? If not, definitely go $25 next time.

I hate the $40 on the flop. If they are going to continue, they are calling $60 -- get some value.

Turn is a gross spot. He has no capacity to bluff, but does he consider AK/AQ value? What about A2 or A3?

It comes right down to whether this guy has worse value in range. One thing I will say is that V calls last to act on the flop which leans me towards a much weaker range, maybe some 32s or T3s? If he has all 16 combos of straights and 6+ combos of sets thats going to be hard to overcome with the available 2p combos. We have about 10% when we are behind and we need about 33% to profit on a call here. Its really quite close. Given the info you gave me I don’t think its a big mistake either way, call or fold. Lean slightly towards fold.

I'll admit I tighten up my raising range after 3+ limpers, so I wouldn't hate an overlimp with this nice multiway hand (and especially if I'm sitting on my shorter stack where I rarely want to commit postflop making TP with this hand and I'm cool with creating a big SPR). This deep I think you could actually argue for a smaller juicer raise.

SPR is 6 and we've got top two pear where most sets (apart from 22) seem a little unlikely. Even though it is extremely multiway, I think you could argue for wanting to play for stacks here. So I'd size up a little on the flop to make this happen easier.

Yeah, kinda gross spot now that he shoves. 54 is possible but so is A2/A3, maybe even 32, a chopping AT, and some WTF spazztard with AK/etc. We have outs if behind. Pukey spot but probably have to make a crying call here... although ask me the last time I got in $700, lol (i.e. I'm actually not sure I could make this call for this much in real time against most opponents with my image).

GcluelessNLnoobG

What does he do with A2,A3,T3s? If he shoves those then snap it off, if he doesn't then fold. Think its a population play based on your experience in these games - hard to comment otherwise.

Could go bigger (or overlimp) pre, bigger on such a dry A-high flop, but these are minor things I think.

As said, it really comes down to his range. I think this line screams value made on the turn, so what of that range is he calling the flop? The key is probably how much 54/33/32 call the flop bet. T3s too maybe - overlimping that late from a "50% vpip" V is probably all suited cards. Does a "very ABC post" Villain chase a gutter for b33? Call a very low pair for one street? I'm assuming he has all 6 remaining combos of A3 here for sure.

Given that 54 seems the least likely of all those hands to get here, and that it's only a pot-sized raise, I think I lean call but it's a gross high-variance spot and we're probably good less than half the time. At least we should have 4 very clean outs to make the best hand.

dont mind a fold, also dont mind a call. These types will super overplay worse two pair. A2 and A3 are 100% in his range and he'll always think those are the nuts. Im not entirely convinced a straight jams because even the most dimwitted idiot knows a wheel is invulnerable here. It's the worse 2 pair that spaz because they dont want to get counterfeit.

Call and reload.

It was VERY unusual for a 20$ raise to go more than 1-2 ways pre.

Nobody has mentioned it, but I could see an old guy playing AK this way. Still, most of the players I face hit their hand and bet huge, so V may have A3 - but it could be 33 or 45.

So, it comes down to whether V is betting value that you beat or he has the nuts. He’s not bluffing you say, but is he overplaying a hand you beat?

This is such a close decision, but I would rather be wrong & save $500. I guess I would soul read & probably fold.

In general we don’t want to fold when we beat some value shoves.

Nice. Guessing javi was right about a spazzing lower 2p.

Grunch:

PRE - raise bigger. At least $25, if not $30. Or just over-limp. This $20 raise isn't accomplishing anything.

FLOP - the 1/3 pot c-bet multi-way is standard, but on ace high flops I prefer to over-bet or check, and AT is a clear over-bet here.

TURN - V has a lot of AX here, and shouldn't have a lot of 33/22, so I think we have to call.

Just read the rest of the thread. Surprised so many say it's a fold. Guess I'm jaded from seeing so many Banana threads where the reveal doesn't align with the reads.

V may have no bluffs, but he has a ton of worse value, and not much better value. Seems like a pretty straightforward call to me. If he drilled an ISSD, slow played 22, or floated with 33, so be it. I'm just paying him off when we get here the way we did, with this specific hand.

Doc why are we overbetting? A good player will just fold a weak ace. We need to keep in hands that have 0-4 outs.

Are they, though? I think the reasoning is that many players aren't going to fold an A on an A-high flop, so let's try to get more money up front.

Yeah, if we're comfortable playing for stacks with top two at this SPR then the the whole goal is to gently massage stacks in over 3 streets. With an SPR of 6, this can be done with 3 reasonable bets of about ~2/3 PSB. So we don't need to overbet the flop (especially one as dry as this one), although our 1/3 PSB bet was probably too small (unless we were thinking that this small bet would get a lotta calls to build the pot).

GcluelessNLnoobG

If Hero bets 150 into 120 6 ways I am always folding anything worse than AK and I think a lot of people on this forum would too.

FWIW my vibe although he didnt show, was that he called flop light with a hand like T3 or 23s and turned a worse 2-pair, he said "once you bet so large (OTT) I just had to go with it"

Hoping to not sound smug or argumentative...

It's a good / fair question, and while I wish I had a short answer, I mostly don't, but I'll do my best...

First, I wouldn't assume they're good players. I mostly assume the opposite at 1/3, unless and until they prove otherwise. Just based on the reads and action, I think it's fair to assume that they're not good players when they're limp-calling pre.

Secondly, based on reading all Banana's threads, I suspect he has a decent LAG image at best, and many low-stakes recs are liable to think he may be too LAG, bordering on spewy, such that I expect some opponents to "make moves" on him with worse value hands.

Part of my reasoning is that I play LAG, and opponents will occasionally play back at me. If I'm hero in this hand, I can't fold top 2P in this spot, because I include a higher percentage of BS in my opponents' ranges.

Third, the over-bet or check ace-high flops line is one I picked up from Marc Goone's Hungry Horse poker YT channel. Marc does a better job explaining it than I can, so I recommend checking out the strat playlist on his channel. That said, I'll attempt a condensed explanation...

Marc's argument is that opponents tend to play ace-high flops more passively. They're not folding many, if any AX combos to a single bet, so we can size up to target the AX portion of their range on early streets. I think a side-benefit is that this also allows us to play for stacks with our thick value on later streets.

Additionally, opponents aren't likely to fast-play their thick value on boards like this, so when we have thick value, we can't necessarily count on them putting the money in for us.

AT2rb is a pretty dry and static board. We're not expecting opponents to limp-call with AA/TT, and really shouldn't be limp-calling with 22, so there's not much for us to be worried about on the flop. That said, there's also not many hands we can expect to get three streets of value from, so I'd like to get max value as early as possible, and I'd love to make this a two-street game, with stacks going in on most turns.

In a 6-way pot in a low stakes game, someone is likely to have AX we can target for value. When our 5 opponents all either limp-called or flatted from the blinds, I also think there's a reasonably good chance we might be able to get value from some TX that gets sticky, and we could even see some T2 or A2 in here, that we can cooler the hell out of.

Additionally, I think too many low-stakes recs, but especially older dudes, like to limp-call with AK rather than raise with it. Likewise, they'll be in there with AQ and AJ, and a ton of suited AX combos, plus a fair number of AXo combos. When we're in a 6-way pot, with all our opponents either limp-calling or cold-calling, I'd be somewhat surprised if no one shows up with some trashy AX combo that just can't find the fold button after getting to the flop this way.

I don't think you or most other people here on the forums get to the flop with AK, AQ, or AJs, but, if we did get here the way all our opponents did, are we really going to fold AJ-AK to a single bet on the flop, even an over-bet? Wouldn't we peel at least once, to see if he barrels turn?

I mean, think about the logic of limp-calling with any AX combo, but especially AJ+, flopping a strong TP, and folding it to a single bet. Who does that? What's the logic behind limp-calling or cold-calling with a good AX combo, and then folding TPGK on the flop? I think the more likely logic is going to be something like, "I slow-played my big ace pre, and this guy is c-betting too much, and often FOS, so I can trap him."

I've frequently found myself arguing on this forum that it doesn't make sense for V to slow-play on the flop, then suddenly wake up and over-play a thick value hand on the turn. But so often, people here tell me it happens all the time, and I've come around to accepting that it does, especially since I've seen it happen often enough.

I wouldn't necessarily always take an over-bet or check line in a pot with 5 opponents, but I like it here, with this specific hand, on this specific board, with these specific opponents. I probably wouldn't over-bet with AA (because we have the board crushed), and probably not AJ-AK with so many opponents involved (because someone could have AT or A2), and AK being such a big part of our range, but I'd over-bet with AT, TT, or 22, for sure.

Marc's preferred bluffs here would be Tx or 2x hands that block our opponents' sets, for whatever that's worth. So he might over-bet with KT, blocking AK and TT.

What does V have here that can beat AK but doesn't beat AT? Has to be 2P. What 2P? I don't know, but whatever 2P combo it is, he called the flop when it was just a weak 1P, or it was 2P that he slow-played on the flop, and then decided to check-jam turn on a complete brick, for some reason.

My guess is V had A2 or A3, because if he's going to check-raise with T2, he'd probably want to do it on the flop, and I can't imagine he's getting here with T3 or 32, though maybe he does.

Whatever he had, I think it goes to show that our opponents are playing way too many hands as limp-calls pre, and check-calls on the flop (all the more reason to size up with our pre-flop open, and also with our c-bet).

I just read Banana say he thinks V had T3 or 32. That's possible, I guess, and maybe he folds out those hands if we over-bet the flop. If he does, oh well, we can console ourselves in the knowledge we got value from a dominated hand pre. But I'm not sure he does fold. I mean...he said he thought OP had AK. What the hell is he doing calling flop with T3 or 32 if he thinks hero has AK?

I dunno. I think V has a lot more A2 and A3 than T3 or 32 here. And like I said, if he limp-called pre, and slow-played the flop with 22, or floated with 33 or 54, he's just getting my money.

Also, part of my reasoning here stems from OP's small raise pre, and small flop c-bet. Opponents are going to show up with much wider ranges, and we're sometimes going to see a spaz frequency on later streets, both with worse value, and occasionally with some sort of bluff.

It seems counter-intuitive that someone would spaz-raise a large turn bet with worse value, but I think the fish-logic is sort of, "my hand is too good to fold, so let's jam and pray." I also suspect there's an element of "I shouldn't be in here with this hand, so when I make a sneaky 2P, I should fast-play it, because my opponent won't be able to get away from AK. If he has a better hand, oh well, it's just a cooler."

Bottom line - we're not playing against ourselves (good players who post or reply to threads on this forum). We're not getting to the turn the way V did, certainly not with AK, and probably not with AQ or AJ. But obviously our opponents in this hand are, so we can take a max-exploitable line in spots like this.

As a potential counter to all the above - theory suggests we c-bet small multi-way, and only for value, mostly just thick value, which means we'll be checking back a lot when we miss or just have thin value, and we'll just be giving up and folding when we've missed and someone bets turn. My counter to that counter is that theory also says that in spots where we won't have a high c-bet frequency, we can size up when we do c-bet. I think this spot qualifies.

It would be a disaster to c-bet 1/3 pot, and get called by someone with a draw that drills the turn. Sitting $760 effective to start, I don't like giving opponents good implied odds to chase their draws when we smash the flop with top 2P on such a dry / static board, and would prefer to charge their draws and their worse value the max to see another card. If we over-bet and get called, we can probably remove all the draws from their ranges, and proceed with the assumption that their range is going to be heavily weighted towards worse value.

OP's read was that V is loose-passive pre, VPIP's about 50%, and very ABC post, with no capacity to bluff. Just because he has no capacity to bluff doesn't mean he's betting better for value when he check-jams turn. If he's that loose-passive pre, I expect him to show up with a boat-load of worse value hands he really shouldn't have, many if not all of which could take this line.

Hope that all makes sense.

Doc your posts are too long, I have the attention span of a rat.

You say we want Tx to call and I would add we want gutters to call. We accomplish that by betting smaller. We don’t have to bet 1/3 but an overbet on the flop seems excessive. No one is gonna call with a ten and the fish might peel once instead of calling 3 times.