River sizing? Or just give up? (KTo)

Turn I would bet on a heart or T+, give up on 9 or lower. As played give up river. If we’re gonna bet it’s gonna need to be huge.

I’m guilty, but I don’t like barreling with nothing. Would not have raised or played it this way. Sometimes you kinda get trapped into it, but I’m guessing if you bet, you get snap called & lose more than necessary.

We need descriptions of villains, but we also need image of Hero in these posts. You’re winning, but what kind of aggression have you shown? Could V be letting you bet his hand for him?

Some passive little devils are content to call down with monsters & never raise & let you know you’re in trouble. You probably have to raise big and I wouldn’t want to lose my stack to a weak player like this.

Give up & check it back

I would fold preflop.

Check back the flop. It is a bad flop for your range. If you 3!, it would be OK to represent an overpair on this flop.

I'm fine with preflop.

I would bet far less on the flop. ETA: Even though this is a poor flop for our range, a bet could fold out A high / better Kx, so I'm cool with cbetting, but I just don't think we need to go so large.

I would give up on this turn card. I would go for it had I added equity or if this card smashed my range, but it did neither.

Pretty horrendous river card to continue attempting to bluff a guy that might not have a fold button, imo.

Gwedon'thavetowineverypotweplay,imoG

betting $200 should fold out random 6 or 4 or even some stupid Ax wheel draw. He might call with 77/88 just because those hands feel like AA to a fish's limping range. I wouldnt give up though, king high should never be good.

Much smaller on the flop (feels like a solver might check back here but I'm not sure and didn't look - really bad offsuit cards tend to be bluff candidates IIRC). As played, check back the turn and give up the river UI as we've isolated to hands that won't be folding much.

Getting to the river like this, I might bet $50 or so to get folds from Axhh that missed. But his range of heart draws is so wide that it might be better to just win by showing down King high, so check back might be better actually.

Probably needed to overbet the turn if you really, really wanted a fold from all one pair hands on the river but the board pair is going to make made value even stickier.

I might go a little smaller on the flop -- you get the same result w/o the expense, then you can size up the turn. However, I might just check the turn. Doesn't sound as if he's folding. Doubt he's folding on river, either, so just check / give up. If he's folding, our K might be good, anyway.

On the river, he probably just made 2-pair, so he isn't folding.

I think I do the worst thing. I thought about it a bit and think now that check back > bet small to fold A-high > bet massive to try and fold one pair > betting medium size like I did.

Result: I bet 125 into 180 OTR and he calls fairly quickly with 4♠ 5♠

I told you he wasn't folding 2-pair.

River’s a brick and V isn’t folding pairs here. You got no equity, no blockers to nutted stuff, and his range is just sticky one-pair hands. Just check back and save the chips. Betting here is just burning money.

So then we're going allin with overpairs every time right?

sizing scheme seems bad to me

hard to model but did co vs bb bc had to pick something

flop is weird board where if he doesn't donk you dont really want to be doing much / any betting but if you do bet you want to bet small. flop size really impacts a huge amount of later street strategy and even if you dont understand the implications of that, should be obvious they need to defend a wider range (and play nut hands more aggressively) vs a smaller bet, so you get a lot more leeway to bluff if you size down vs up otf. i think its probably significant enough to give up with alot of your low equity bluffs (i am saying turn barrel if u b30 otf is good but not when u b85). is also probably better if he's the bb as opposed to ep open limper

turn sizing i think is alright given flop sizing (not rly sure you can go pot overbet jam w overpairs without signif overplaying your hand in theory world)

river looks like a jam though given how you got here

exploitatively fd bricked and board paired and u r going to get way over called esp if you don't make it hurt

your line is great with 88 though

If I were trying to triple-barrel here, and I think I might (especially with the River card, which means 2p loses to an overpair), I would go like 30% Flop, 80% Turn, 110% River. This would mean, let me check...

Flop is 30, I bet 10

Turn is 50, I bet 42

River is 134, I bet 150.

Total investment is 202, your line has exactly 200, so almost identical (this wasn't intentional!), but I think the above line would get more folds.

Flop cbet is fine. But checking back is also fine.

On the turn, I would start giving up.

From villain's point of view, you raised from the BTN HU and are aggressive, so you probably have a wide range and mostly high card. He has clear calls on the flop and turn with a pair plus gutshot. The river is a brick. How often are you doing this for value versus how often bluffing. He probably has a call with pot odds.

You know this guy is a station. You raise maybe 40% of range and 3 barrel a high proportion of boards. Not sure that is profitable. This is an OK board to represent as a 3-better, but villain probably has a range advantage is this situation. What are you representing? A overpair?

Villain has huge range and nut advantages on this board. He can have a straight, a set that became a boat, trips, and lots of pairs that became 2-pair. I don't know what you are representing. An overpair or maybe that you hit this board with low cards?

Grunch:

PRE - I really think you need to consider increasing your raise size.

With one limper in the pot already, even if he's terrible, he's limping from UTG, so he has to have a hand that *HE* thinks is playable enough to risk having to call a raise.

The point being - he's probably not folding to a $15 raise. He might fold to a $20 raise. He'd almost certainly fold to a $25 raise. If you raise bigger and he calls, the pot will be bigger, as will your c-bets and barrels, putting more pressure on him if he wants to continue, and forcing him to continue with a stronger range, one that doesn't really connect with this board.

FLOP - why are you c-betting almost full pot on this board?

We didn't connect, at all, beyond having 2 over's and a BDFD to the 2nd nuts. Why not c-bet small, and see what he wants to do? If we're going to bet-fold to a x/r, why not save ourselves a bit of money by betting smaller, which gives him a chance to x/r with all his 2P+ that doesn't want to see any more cards?

I'd probably just c-bet $10, or just check it back to see what he does on the turn. We can always make a delayed c-bet if he checks again. If he checks turn, THEN we can size up with our c-bet, to make him fold.

TURN - why are you barreling for this bad-reg size of 2/3 pot? What does this size accomplish?

If you want to make him fold, over-bet. If you want to give him a chance to tell us he has a strong hand and we should stop bluffing, bet smaller, like 1/2 pot or less.

All this 2/3 pot barrel does is bloat the pot and put us in a tough spot getting to the river, because if he calls, we really don't know if he's chasing a draw or has a hand he really likes.

RIVER - Brother I have no idea what to do here, because I don't get here the way you did.

I doubt our hand is good enough to take to showdown. I doubt he's folding 9x or better if we don't bet huge. He's obviously not folding any sets, or a straight.

I guess maybe we could bet $80 or $90, just trying to make him fold ace-high or something like 77, 88, 55 or 33 that doesn't love calling three streets. Maybe a 2x pot over-bet just folds everything, but we're going to feel like a dunce if he hero-calls with 9x or worse.

I don't understand why you're trying to make this guy fold anything with a small raise pre, when his limp-calling range is apparently ATC when we open for 5BB's and he's getting almost 2:1 coming back around. With a range of ATC, this is his board, not ours. Good luck making him fold.

Your whole intro is "Villain will never fold any piece of this board" and then proceed to try to get him off some piece of that board. You

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Check back the turn. On the river, gather chips together in the hopes that Villain thinks you're betting and instafolds a naked Ace.