77 vs Blind Jam

Well first did he actually go in blind? Second I probably fold with half the table left to act. I think it's close though. Obviously if we play its a shove.

EDIT

Napkin maths.

Say it's 5 to act and we're roughly top 10%. Chance that no-one has a better hand is ~.6 so chance someone has a better hand is 40%. Say we always get one caller with $500 and they have top 10% if they call.

Just us, our EV:

Our EV is our equity of 77 vs. random x $250 x 60%.

Get called, our EV:

Our equity of [(3 way of 77 vs. random vs. 10%) x $250 + (2 way of 77 vs. 10%) x $250] x 40%.

Take all that and factor in rake when we win.

That’s good analysis except you’re not including the fact that they will fold better hands possibly up to queens and AK. At least 88-TT usually folds.

OK I messed up the calculation method above, but I'll do this again with same napkin math assumptions, throw in the caveat that we likely get the profitable heads-up more than this implies but when we go 3 ways, we're in worse shape. Also factoring in $10 capped rake on pots when we win.

1. Heads-up 77 vs. random

[(66.24% x $240) + (33.76% x -$250)] x 40% = $29.83

2. Get called by $500 at 10% range.

77 vs. random vs. 10% for $240 (rake on this one) and also 77 vs. 10% for $250.

[(32.61% x $490) + (67.39% x -$250)] + [(42.14% x $250) + (57.86% x -$250)] x 60%

= (-$8.69 - $39.30) x 60%

= -$28.79

Total +$1.04

On this basis I fold but it's closer than I expected.

On this close result, rake makes a big difference - with no rake its +$5.65 and a loss at $15 cap.

For me then I think 77 is the inflection point. 99 is a clear shove at +$52.14 and AQ at +$44.14.

So after this exercise I shove 99+ and AQ+. Which I think I probably would do in real life, in real time.

I probably just fold.

LOL. I laugh like a maniac then and shove without thinking much.

Might be worth taking a quick look left, before we do it, to see if anyone else is getting ready to shove.

Assuming a full 9 handed table, my guess would be MP is a little too early as too good a chance someone behind wakes up with something better (which would suck if our much larger stack size then becomes the effective stack size).

Course the real question is where the line in the sand is, and it's probably pretty close to around here?

GcluelessNLnoobG

Stuffing it all day. Unless you see some nit loading up stacks I’m jamming and feeling pretty good.

Easy call with 77 here. He’s tilted and jamming blind, so his range is literally any two. You’re way ahead of that, snap it off and live with the flip if it comes.

Result: Hero jams and holds vs Q2o

not enough info, # of uncapped ranges behind us for ex

Obviously we're doing fine against the maniac. The general question is what's the minimum hand we should be considering this with from each position given the fact that each person behind us can wake up with better.

Gprollycloseinthisexactspot?G

People play terribly as an over call here. 77 is an easy call.

Assuming you are getting called by TT+ and not worrying much about AK/AQ, which you are slightly ahead of, I calculate this a slightly $EV+, but of course a huge gamble. It would be unrealistic to assume higher pps are always calling.

Make a speech like "Time to gambool" or "I guess it's time to go home, so I might as well get it in!" while standing up and then shove pocket 77.

We have good equity versus the tilted shoving blind, so we might as well do something to scare off the players behind us. I think that speech play will give us a little more fold equity versus the hands behind us. Hopefully, a guy sitting behind us with pocket 88 or pocket 99 or AQ offsuit will get spooked by our speech.

It just depends on our fold equity against the guys behind us.

You can’t do that, standing up saying it’s time to go is always JJ.

That's the idea. Want to get 88-TT to fold.