NCAA Football 2025
Not sure who will win this year, hopefully Arch goes nuts and UT can kick the door in after making the quarterfinals the
Hilariously, despite their awful OOC performance, the ACC is in incredible position to get multiple bids this year.
8 conference games + having a bunch of awful teams + having your best teams win marquee OOC matchups = great recipe for multiple bids
Whereas the big-12 plays 9 conference games (plus arizona/ksu), has very few awful teams, and lost their marquee matchups.
I have Miami at 93% to go 10-2 or better. With their OOC wins over ND and UF, that'll get them in
I have FSU at 62% to go 10-2 or better. With their win over Alabama (and possibly UF), that should probably do it
If either of them lose, it will often be to Louisville, who I have 11% to go 10-2
Georgia Tech's forward looking ACC slate is absolute cake, and I have them at 62% to go 10-2, but I am not sure if they are a lock at 10-2. Their win over Clemson may not end up looking that great, and will likely have 0 top-25 wins. However at 10-2 that means they either beat UGA (which means they're probably in) or they lost to UGA but only lost 1 ACC game, which means they can still get in through the ACCCG
and of course with the ACC's ridiculous schedule of 17 teams and only 8 conference games there's a small chance that you could have like 12-0 Miami, 11-1 FSU and then something like 10-2 SMU slide in there and win the conference, and all 3 would go.
The bottom of the ACC is SO BAD, those free wins really pile up
Conversely, I think the SEC is in a worse position than people realize.
Two of their best teams (bama and texas) losing is pretty catastrophic, since the league is deep enough that it might create a 9-3 log jam.
Now, they might get in a team at 9-3! (several 10-2 ACC or B12 teams could get jumped)
Odds of going 10-2 or better:
UGA: 66%
Ole Miss: 52%
LSU: 42%
Texas: 40% (!)
ATM: 30%
Tennessee: 25%
Oklahoma: 23% (30% 9-3)
Alabama: 21%
Missouri: 17%
Auburn: 6%
Vandy: 5%
Keep in mind that Alabama or Texas ending up at 9-3 would mean only 2 SEC losses, so they'd still be very live for the SECCG.
I think 4 bids is still the most likely scenario, but I think 3 bids is a lot more likely than 5
Hilariously, despite their awful OOC performance, the ACC is in incredible position to get multiple bids this year.8 conference games + having a bunch of awful teams + having your best teams win marquee OOC matchups = great recipe for multiple bidsWhereas the big-12 plays 9 conference games (plus arizona/ksu), has very few awful teams, and lost their marquee matchups.I have Mia
My strong working hypothesis is a 10-2 B1G , SEC or ND team is NEVER getting left out, rendering all talk about quality wins/strength of schedule completely meaningless (except for edge 9-3 scenarios). My weak working hypothesis is the same applies to all other Power 4 teams too. If there's ever a year that could prove me wrong it's this year.
My strong working hypothesis is a 10-2 B1G , SEC or ND team is NEVER getting left out, rendering all talk about quality wins/strength of schedule completely meaningless (except for edge 9-3 scenarios). My weak working hypothesis is the same applies to all other Power 4 teams too. If there's ever a year that could prove me wrong it's this year.
10-2 Miami literally got left out last year, and they weren't even the first team out.
If Indiana had lost their last game to Purdue to also finish 10-2, they 100% would have been out.
If Cal goes 10-2 this year, I can guarantee you we are not getting in.
If Illinois loses to OSU big, they might have a hard time getting in this year as well.
10-2 Miami literally got left out last year, and they weren't even the first team out.
Oops. And I just noticed that BYU went 10-2. Forgot about that. So yeah, the weak hypothesis is dead on arrival in a 12 team playoff format.
If Indiana had lost their last game to Purdue to also finish 10-2, they 100% would have been out.
I agree with this counterfactual so damn, I guess I have to concede on my strong hypothesis too.
I still feel like I'm onto something tho regarding the strong hypothesis. I just have to move the goalposts a little. Like for example, I don't think a 10-2 Ohio State, Bama, Georgia, Michigan, PSU, ND, Oregon, USC, Tenn, LSU, Florida, Oklahoma......basically the big brands of college football (within the power 2 + ND)....is ever getting left out of the playoffs. I don't think strength of schedule/marquee wins/etc matter AT ALL for them. It's sort by wins. You go 10-2, you're in. The only relevant discussion is on the fringes of who falls under the "big brand" label.
If Cal goes 10-2 this year, I can guarantee you we are not getting in.
If Illinois loses to OSU big, they might have a hard time getting in this year as well.
Since I agree with the IU take, I concede this too. Basically, weak hypothesis is garbage, strong hypothesis just needs to be tweaked a little.
Byu even had non conference win at smu and didn't sniff consideration.
Committee seems to mostly sort by losses and head to head tiebreaker but power ranking/eye test also matter. But they break sometimes like byu they couldn't wait to drop.
But then there was Boise last year who was an outlier because of one good loss to Oregon and never dropped.
Still think nd will be left out some at 10-2. Already lost to two possible bubble teams. Also Michigan at 10-2 probably makes the big ten title a decent amount and then gets left out at 10-3.
Also Michigan at 10-2 probably makes the big ten title a decent amount and then gets left out at 10-3.
Idk it seems like the committee is willing to go out of their way not to penalize a team for making the title game. That at least translates to a 10-3 title loser getting in if they're a big brand like Michigan.
Oops. And I just noticed that BYU went 10-2. Forgot about that. So yeah, the weak hypothesis is dead on arrival in a 12 team playoff format.I agree with this counterfactual so damn, I guess I have to concede on my strong hypothesis too. I still feel like I'm onto something tho regarding the strong hypothesis. I just have to move the goalposts a little. Like for example, I
Ahem, their starting qb could get injured. Although I do expect them to lie about this moving forward, including deepfakes of them practicing while holding a copy of today’s newspaper.
1 Miami
2 Oklahoma
3 Ohio State
4 Florida State
5 LSU
6 Texas A&M
7 Indiana
8 Georgia
9 Oregon
10 Texas Tech
11 Penn State
12 Ole Miss
13 Iowa State
14 Texas
15 Alabama
16 Vanderbilt
17 USC
18 Georgia Tech
19 TCU
20 Tennessee
21 Michigan
22 Missouri
23 BYU
24 Mississippi State
25 Notre Dame
Illinois being ranked is unbelievable to me
Their best win is against Duke, who outgained them in total yardage and YPP but randomly lost 4 fumbles, and they just lost by FIFTY POINTS
Keeping Illinois ranked but only moving Indiana up to 11 is a joke. If the voters really think Illinois should be #23 then they should make Indiana #1.
Auburn has a better win (@ Baylor) and a better loss. Mississippi State and TCU both have better wins (vs ASU) and are undefeated! Insane.
Penn State at #3 is so stupid. They've beaten Villanova, FIU and Nevada, and they didn't even beat them THAT badly. Make teams actually play a game before you put them in the top-5. Oklahoma and LSU both have TWO solid wins while Penn State hasn't played anyone with a pulse yet.
Coaches are just a lost cause. Penn State at 2? Texas at 7? Miami at SIX?!?! Good grief
THURSDAY
Army 7:30:00 PM 5.5
East Carolina 7:30:00 PM -5.5
FRIDAY
Florida State 7:00:00 PM -6.5
Virginia 7:00:00 PM 7
UVA is off to a decent start at 3-1. FSU has completely nuked two teams without a pulse after beating Alabama in the opener. The cone of variance on FSU is huge right now, so a road game against a decent opponent will be a very useful barometer
TCU 9:00:00 PM 2.5
Arizona State 9:00:00 PM -2.5
Hugely important game in the Big-12. Texas Tech is in conference pole position after their dominating win at Utah, and the winner of this game will be the second most likely winner (along with Iowa State, who dodges Tech and Utah)
Houston 10:30:00 PM -13.5
Oregon State 10:30:00 PM 13.5
SATURDAY
South Alabama 12:00:00 PM 12.5
North Texas 12:00:00 PM -12
Notre Dame 12:00:00 PM -4
Arkansas 12:00:00 PM 4.5
Notre Dame needs to win out to make the playoff, while Arkansas looks to bounce back from fumbling the game away to Memphis.
Cincinnati 12:00:00 PM 5.5
Kansas 12:00:00 PM -4.5
Central Florida 12:00:00 PM 6
Kansas State 12:00:00 PM -5.5
Duke 12:00:00 PM -5.5
Syracuse 12:00:00 PM 6
Duke is actually decent, and has run terribly. Cuse had a pyrrhic victory over Clemson, beating them on the road but losing Angeli in the process. We'll see if his backup can keep it up
Georgia Tech 12:00:00 PM -13.5
Wake Forest 12:00:00 PM 14
Louisville 12:00:00 PM -4.5
Pittsburgh 12:00:00 PM 5
Louisville is, on paper, the ACC's fourth most likely contender. This is their first P4 game, although they did beat presumptive sun-belt champ JMU
USC 12:00:00 PM -6.5
Illinois 12:00:00 PM 6.5
Huge amounts at stake for both teams. A win moves USC to 3-0 in the B1G and cements them as a contender behind a much-improved Jayden Maiava and basically puts Illinois' dream season in the gutter before it even really got started. Whereas a win for Illinois would bounce them right back from last week's loss.
Rutgers 12:00:00 PM 5.5
Minnesota 12:00:00 PM -4.5
Two not-that-bad teams coming off of disappointing losses. The winner gets some momentum, the loser is pretty much cooked.
Bowling Green 12:00:00 PM 10.5
Ohio 12:00:00 PM -9
Utah State 12:45:00 PM 22.5
Vanderbilt 12:45:00 PM -22.5
Utah State actually has a little bit of firepower on offense so they might be able to hang with the undefeated SEC juggernaut for a quarter or two. Is Vandy for real? If so, they'll do what a top-tier team is supposed to do to a MWC opponent.
Eastern Michigan 1:00:00 PM 6
Central Michigan 1:00:00 PM -5.5
Georgia Southern 1:30:00 PM 17.5
James Madison 1:30:00 PM -17
Arkansas State 3:00:00 PM 2.5
Louisiana-Monroe 3:00:00 PM -1.5
San Diego State 3:30:00 PM -2.5
Northern Illinois 3:30:00 PM 3
Rice 3:30:00 PM 14.5
Navy 3:30:00 PM -14
Auburn 3:30:00 PM 6.5
Texas A&M 3:30:00 PM -6.5
Two good teams with tough schedules. Auburn feels like they got robbed last Saturday. A second conference loss put them on the brink. ATM looks to build on that huge win at ND.
LSU 3:30:00 PM 1.5
Mississippi 3:30:00 PM -1.5
LSU beat Clemson and Florida, a statement that meant a lot more a few days ago than it does now. Both of these teams are in the neighborhood of a flip to playoff. The winner will be a big favorite, and the loser will torch one of their mulligans with a lot of tough games still to play.
Baylor 3:30:00 PM -20.5
Oklahoma State 3:30:00 PM 21.5
Utah 3:30:00 PM -12.5
West Virginia 3:30:00 PM 13.5
California 3:30:00 PM 6.5
Boston College 3:30:00 PM -6.5
Indiana 3:30:00 PM -7.5
Iowa 3:30:00 PM 7.5
What will Indiana do for an encore? They absolutely annihilated Illinois last week in one of the most convincing wins of the season. Another solid victory here, and the B1G might become a favorite to get 4 teams in the dance.
UCLA 3:30:00 PM 6.5
Northwestern 3:30:00 PM -6.5
Ohio State 3:30:00 PM -8.5
Washington 3:30:00 PM 8.5
Washington is 3-0 by big margins against pretty light competition, and their offense has been on fire. OSU's offense has been completely dormant, but it hasn't mattered yet. An upset here could have huge ramifications down the line.
UConn 3:30:00 PM -3.5
Buffalo 3:30:00 PM 4.5
Akron 3:30:00 PM 21.5
Toledo 3:30:00 PM -20.5
Lindenwood 3:30:00 PM 20.5
Miami (OH) 3:30:00 PM -20.5
Hawaii 4:00:00 PM 6.5
Air Force 4:00:00 PM -6.5
New Mexico State 4:00:00 PM 14
New Mexico 4:00:00 PM -13.5
Tulane 4:00:00 PM -14.5
Tulsa 4:00:00 PM 15.5
Tennessee 4:15:00 PM -7.5
Mississippi State 4:15:00 PM 7.5
A lot of good SEC games this week! Cowbell is 4-0 with a dramatic win over ASU. Tennessee took care of business against Syracuse and UAB and really should've beaten Georgia.
Liberty 6:00:00 PM 16.5
Old Dominion 6:00:00 PM -16
Middle Tenn. St 6:00:00 PM 7.5
Kennesaw State 6:00:00 PM -7.5
Rhode Island 6:30:00 PM 7.5
Western Michigan 6:30:00 PM -7.5
Jacksonville State 7:00:00 PM 4.5
Southern Miss 7:00:00 PM -4
Memphis 7:00:00 PM -13.5
Florida Atlantic 7:00:00 PM 13.5
Western Kentucky 7:00:00 PM -4.5
Missouri State 7:00:00 PM 5.5
Arizona 7:00:00 PM 6.5
Iowa State 7:00:00 PM -6.5
Both teams are undefeated, have already beaten KSU and avoid Texas Tech and Utah. Huge B12 title implications here.
Virginia Tech 7:00:00 PM 10.5
North Carolina State 7:00:00 PM -10.5
Appalachian State 7:30:00 PM 16.5
Boise State 7:30:00 PM -16.5
Washington State 7:30:00 PM 4.5
Colorado State 7:30:00 PM -4.5
San Jose State 7:30:00 PM 2.5
Stanford 7:30:00 PM -2
Alabama 7:30:00 PM 3
Georgia 7:30:00 PM -2.5
With a win, Alabama is 40% to finish 10-2 or better and 73% to finish 9-3 or better. With a loss, those numbers drop to 11% and 40%.
With a win, UGA is 75% to finish 10-2 or better. With a loss, that drops to 40%.
Massachusetts 7:30:00 PM 44.5
Missouri 7:30:00 PM -44.5
Oregon 7:30:00 PM 3.5
Penn State 7:30:00 PM -3.5
Nothing complicated about this one - both teams are stone-cold locks at 10-2 and almost certainly out at 9-3 given their weak nonconference schedules.
Oregon is 93% to get there if they win, and 75% with a loss
Penn State is 92% with a win, and 62% with a loss
Kentucky 7:45:00 PM 6.5
South Carolina 7:45:00 PM -6.5
With Vandy and Mississippi State both surprising to the upside, the loser of this game will be dubbed "the worst team in the SEC"
Marshall 8:00:00 PM 1.5
Louisiana-Lafayette 8:00:00 PM -1.5
Louisiana Tech 9:00:00 PM -4
UTEP 9:00:00 PM 4.5
BYU 10:15:00 PM -6.5
Colorado 10:15:00 PM 6.5
Undefeated, ranked team playing a conference road game with a single digit spread - could do worse in the 10pm slot!
appreciated as always GB
Illinois being ranked is unbelievable to meTheir best win is against Duke, who outgained them in total yardage and YPP but randomly lost 4 fumbles, and they just lost by FIFTY POINTSKeeping Illinois ranked but only moving Indiana up to 11 is a joke. If the voters really think Illinois should be #23 then they should make Indiana #1.Auburn has a better win (@ Baylor) and a better
Wait four more weeks then start looking at the marbles imo.
Happened to see the clip of Arch flexing over the SH DB in the end zone. Punk move, kid's a less accurate Manziel minus the criminality imo.
I feel like the difference between Arch and Manziel is larger than the difference between me and Brad Pitt. Manziel was an historically great college QB. Dude literally moved mountains with that Bama upset in 2012. I've been watching since 1988. The only time TexAM was relevant in my sports lifetime was when Manziel was their QB. He is a true college football legend whereas I honestly don't know if Arch is a college level QB. Seems like high school is his ceiling or maybe some lower division.
Like Iowa
Some great games this week.
Preface: I am the worst sports bettor alive ... but I would hammer UGA -3.
Happened to see the clip of Arch flexing over the SH DB in the end zone. Punk move, kid's a less accurate Manziel minus the criminality imo.
I feel like the difference between Arch and Manziel is larger than the difference between me and Brad Pitt. Manziel was an historically great college QB. Dude literally moved mountains with that Bama upset in 2012. I've been watching sin
Sorry buddy, but this popped up in my feeds. 31 years ago today. At around the same time across the pond, Oliver McCall landed a miracle on Lennox Lewis, though it wasn’t a Hail Mary situation.
happy to be proven wrong
but if arch hasn't popped by now i don't think he's it
The problem with Arch and a lot of young players is the hype is so much bigger these days. That even the most average of games will set them back in the eyes of their detractors. If he's not throwing 400 yards and 5 TDs every game, then he's the worst.
Has Arch lived up to the hype so far? Nope, but it's still early.
didn't Peyton start halfway through his freshman year and Eli his sophomore season? They didn't sit as backups for two seasons to get better before starting.
didn't Peyton start halfway through his freshman year and Eli his sophomore season? They didn't sit as backups for two seasons to get better before starting.
Peyton began by sitting and only got to go because of an injury to the starter IIRC.
Cutcliffe sat Eli for his freshman year due to some stupid sense of starting a senior because of time served, loyalty, or seniority. When Eli finally got to play during the bowl game of his freshman year it was obvious that he was better than the guy who had been starting the entire year. IMO, of course.
