QQ vs winning weak-tight
1/3 NLHE 9 handed
V - Winning weak tight/TAG. Gets very FPS which costs him EV. He's a good player and makes some great folds, bluffs well and ranges people really well...but gets frustrated by the necessarily low VPIP required to be profitable and talks himself into calls he knows are bad. We have 100s of hours together, he gives me zero credit for having a hand and thinks I'm FOS regularly, in fact that's his default assumption.
HH w/ V (he's only playing this way because it's me) - I straddle UTG and see ATo, V opens 20 in CO (I know he's going to open all sorts of hands here), folds to me and I defend (we're 600 effective, maybe this is a raise or fold?). Flop K-9-4r I check he bets half pot I float. Turn K-9-4-Kr. I check he barrels 2/3rds pot, I x/raise 5x, he 3-bet shoves and I fold. He shows 84s.
----- We both have about 700$ to start the hand -----
UTG fish limps, I open Q♦ Q♠ to 15 in HJ, fishy stabby asian woman calls CO, V 3-bets to 65 from BTN, folds back and I just call, woman folds. HU OOP.
Flop 145 (~650 back) - J♥ 8♥ 6♣
check check
Turn 145 - 6♥
check check
River 145 - 7♥
H bets 125...
My reaction to the river bet is "Huh"?
He never gets to the river like this with AA/KK. He's never folding AK with a heart. And if you think he's willing to 3-bet you PF with a hand like AxTh, T9s, or a middling PP, I don't know why you wouldn't have 4-bet PF? It's like you're targeting exclusively AxQh on the river, which he still might not fold.
In fact, given how he views you and sometimes plays back at you, I have no idea why you didn't 4-bet PF.
PRE - I probably would have 4B, especially with the dead money in the pot.
FLOP - check seems standard. I wouldn't hate a smallish donk.
TURN - the 7h should mostly be a brick, if he's structuring his pre-flop 3B's and flop c-bets appropriately. Think it's time to bet our hand for value and protection.
RIVER - yuck. Our hand has been severely downgraded to a marginal bluff catcher. I'd mostly just check-fold at this point.
Is this bet for value, or are we bluffing? We're bluffing, right?
I don't hate turning our hand into a bluff at some (very) low frequency, if we're just trying to fold out some of V's better but not nutted hands. Bonus points if V calls with a worse 1P, which seems possible if he thinks we're always FOS. If he mucks and shows a better hand, make sure you show him that he made a bad fold.
I don't see the point in bluffing the river. He 3-bet preflop, so he probably he TT+/AQ+. In that case, if he has a heart, it is a good one he is unlikely to fold. A lot of his preflop bluffs, if he has them, are suited cards. If he had a flush on the turn, he would probably bet it. If he is suited in something other than hearts, QQ is probably well ahead.
Our exploit vs this player is not to check raise AT high on K94K, it’s to 4b pre with QQ.
i mean how weak tight can he be if he 3b jams the turn w 0 equity
dont really get turn x or river sizing, i think block is much better if you want to bet. is bad in theory it seems but i can at least see assumptions where its a bet
would be hardpressed to not 4b here and it seems like the at hand large spew
Flop/turn checks are fine. River bet is thin vs this V, I’d just check and take the showdown.
i mean how weak tight can he be if he 3b jams the turn w 0 equity
dont really get turn x or river sizing, i think block is much better if you want to bet. is bad in theory it seems but i can at least see assumptions where its a bet
would be hardpressed to not 4b here and it seems like the at hand large spew
You dont get that a board pairing K is the best x/r light card in the deck?
Is the river bet with QQ a value bet or a bluff?
Value to get hero'd by a J mostly.
4Bet $120 pre-flop - changes dynamics, giving you the initiative with a great hand. If villain never credits you with a hand, he’s coming along. Surely, you don’t mind shoving this hand pre-flop if necessary.
As played, you can’t expect V to bet your hand for you with that flop - donk $100
As played, you can’t expect V to bet your hand for you & a board pair is a good thing - pot the turn.
As played, check river
4 bet pre given your dynamic. Considering he clearly wants to battle with you I'm fine getting all in pre.
He isn't weak/tight based on all the info you gave. Tight players aren't raising 84 pre.
I'm usually betting turn as played, want to get value from all the heart draws and some protection from AK etc I don't see the value in checking here.
As played checking river.
You can't value bet QQ on the river. Hard for a worse hand to call or a better hand to fold.
4b pre, but especially bet the turn. Deny equity to random overcards and charge the heart draws.
As played, a big river bet seems terrible as you're going to get defended almost perfectly. Bet/fold for a small size seems attractive to try to cut down on a human's bluff frequency checked to three times.
A TAG who is "frustrated by the requisite VPIP" so can get impatient and out of line with thin value is really checking back top pair on this flop? And on the turn??
Sure, I can see AJ no heart calling the river if teleported there, but I don't think it's in range at this point.
Yuck. You become the aggressor the one time in the hand you probably aren't ahead and will get called only by better hands.
4bet pre -- perfect setup. Bet the flop.
How is someone who raises 84s and then 3-bet shoves bottom pair weak-tight?
because hes adjusting to meeeeee like I saaaaid ^^^
4-bet QQ.
And 3-bet the AT.
Result:
Spoiler
He calls with 78s and I win with better two pair.
Line looks okay, river bet is good for value. He never folds JJ+ but you get looked up by worse a lot.
i mean how weak tight can he be if he 3b jams the turn w 0 equity
dont really get turn x or river sizing, i think block is much better if you want to bet. is bad in theory it seems but i can at least see assumptions where its a bet
would be hardpressed to not 4b here and it seems like the at hand large spew
conceivable he never has a flush tbh depending how he plays ThTx and 9h9x ott. still think block is better when you're betting thin for value
