Bluff catching series part 4
BTN: 48.19 BB (VPIP: 25.26, PFR: 10.67, 3Bet Preflop: 4.08, Hands: 497)
SB: 112.36 BB (VPIP: 26.28, PFR: 21.86, 3Bet Preflop: 11.83, Hands: 1,688)
BB: 101.79 BB (VPIP: 31.44, PFR: 26.09, 3Bet Preflop: 10.73, Hands: 631)
Hero (UTG): 166.23 BB
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 29.38, PFR: 23.64, 3Bet Preflop: 11.49, Hands: 1,530)
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Ad Jd
Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1 BB
Flop : (4.5 BB, 2 players) Ts 7c As
BB checks, Hero bets 2.25 BB, BB calls 2.25 BB
Turn : (9 BB, 2 players) 9c
BB checks, Hero bets 6.75 BB, BB calls 6.75 BB
River : (22.5 BB, 2 players) Jc
BB bets 18.88 BB, Hero calls 18.88 BB
BB shows Tc 6c (Flush, Jack High)
(Pre 36%, Flop 23%, Turn 32%)
Hero shows Ad Jd (Two Pair, Aces and Jacks)
(Pre 64%, Flop 77%, Turn 68%)
BB wins 57.25 BB
My read on villain is that he is overaggressive and not a winning player.
4 Replies
I think your betting-line is fine, but your sizings aren't. Flop I'd go with 75%, Turn and River with the board getting more and more wet, I'd go way lower than you. You'd still get some value from weaker hands but loose less when you are beat.
Tough river. Versus this type you’ll be right often, but here he just got there.
Flop is in your favor. You have got nut (AA, TT) and range (Ax, KK-) advantage, therefore, sizing up (B75) becomes valid, like FR-Nit wrote.
Turn is better for OOP (BB) because we don't open J8s, 86s, whereas BB defends them preflop. BB has nut (str8) advantage, however he will occasionally check-raise his gutshots on the flop, so we can discount them a bit. I think your sizing is fine and appropriate given the nut shift.
River is annoying. I don't think villain donks any worse for value, so that your hand is basically a bluff catcher (sometimes splitting vs another AJ tho). We do need more than
18.88 / (2x 18.88 + 22.5) = 31%
equity to justify calling. What's villains value combos?
flush
AQcc, A8cc, A7cc, A6cc-A2cc (8 combos, some check-raie on the river, discount to 4)
KQcc, KTcc (2)
QTcc (1)
JTcc, J8cc (2)
T8cc (1)
98cc, 96cc (2)
86cc (1)
str8
KQss (1)
A8hh (1)
T8ddhh (2)
98ddsshh (3)
87ddsshh (3)
sets (slowplayed with unorthodox line)
99, 77 (say 3)
In total that's 26 value combos. How many bluff combos do we need?
bluff / value = equity / (1 - equity) = 0.31 / 0.69 = 0.45
<=> bluff = value x 0.45 = 26 x 0.45 = 12
Bluff candidates are rather unintuitive on this board. I think that villain needs to turn something with showdown value into a bluff. Potential bluffs are:
K9ss, K7ss, K6ss, K5ss (4)
Q9ss (1)
76ss, Q7ss, K7ss (3)
KT, QT (2x 12 = 24)
A2hh-A6hh (5)
There is some room for over bluffing, but it's pretty thin. I think that most people will not find these bluffs, especially on lower limits. Without any detailled reads, I'd just fold to be honest.
Flop is in your favor. You have got nut (AA, TT) and range (Ax, KK-) advantage, therefore, sizing up (B75) becomes valid, like FR-Nit wrote.Turn is better for OOP (BB) because we don't open J8s, 86s, whereas BB defends them preflop. BB has nut (str8) advantage, however he will occasionally check-raise his gutshots on the flop, so we can discount them a bit. I think your sizing
Amazing analysis, thank you so much!
