NL50 river turn "2 pair" into 3x pot bluff shove

Well, ask yourself what you are trying to accomplish with your hand and whether or not you think that is going to happen.

Your opponent donked the fct and continues otr when it pairs. You are repping primarily a boat. You beat all bluffs and mostly are just losing to flushes which is (probably?) the main hand your opponent is representing by donking the turn.

Do you think an opponent that is donk betting the turn is going to fold at a frequency that justifies you bluffing for this size? You're risking something around $50 to win ~16.50... he needs to fold ~75% of the time for you to breakeven. Do you think he is doing that? Do you think you win ~20% of the time if you simply called?

I'm trying to fold all his flush even some 22, Call is OK, maybe I'll win 20% of the time, but not sure if this is the max EV action.

Verse this size shove seems too extreme, But obviously I miss read the pool.

I think the main lesson is that verse the line and river size I should recognize V cold not read the story

V snap call with his AA

This is pretty well played by both players tbf. But theory aint reality and they probably have a much wider river calling range than a solver.

I think we'd get better EV raising the turn donk really. I doubt this player is playing a GTO donk and that makes them more vulnerable to either bet/over-calling a highly condensed range or bet/folding in a spot our hand loves a fold. Only then I think we have any fold equity otr, and it wouldn't be much. Whereas just calling caps us to our polarised flop range, which means we're repping literally the ultranuts and expecting our likely averagely skilled opponent to find some next level GTO hero folds. It all seems very unlikely IRL.

I think trying to make a fish that is donking into you fold a strong hand (flush) is going to be a mistake and thinking he may fold a boat (which he should never have) is sort of insane. Here you have villain snapping off with an overpair, so hopefully that provides you with a little bit of information for how to navigate vs. a whale in the future when deciding to make very big bluffs.

Probably raising turn is best and then on the river I'd default to a call. You're very likely to win >20% vs. this size against some middling hands (88/TT) and some bluffs (AK/AQ/AT/AX with spade). He's really likely a fish, so I wouldn't even be surprised to see hands like 76 of hearts.