Line Check - £125 Live MTT

I contemplated it mate. Thought maybe I could make it look like a missed flush (which it kind of was) but if he does have AA, KK, is he really calling a 75bb shove this early? I don't know.

I think shoving river is backwards personally. What really is he calling that we beat on that runout?

We lose to (which could take this line) AK, QQ, JJ, 77, 44, 98s, K9s, QJs. I don't think he's hero calling here with AA or KK and the only hand I can think he might do so with that we beat is JTs.

ah I misread your board, didn't have the jack in mind.

no, with the jack I'd checkcall river.

I thought it was a lowboard, then I'd checkshove.

yeah on JQT he may see many offsuit twopair combos for you and also never expect you to bluff.

still not many bluffs on xxxQT with xxx lowcards probably from you on average in an underbluffed riverraise, but he may not be aware of it and find a bluffcatch or call sometimes,

if he puts you on a sometimes overplayed queen or some bluff (hearts, 56, ...), or if he's jinxed by aces.

on xxJQT Id call river.

as it played out, his sizings bigflop bigturn smallriver, from threeway on flop on board J74QT,

I think it will be AA and KK almost always and the other hands will have prob around 0%,

except for 44 and 77, though I think he'll usually find a larger sizing with them on river.

so it's mostly AA and KK: 12 combos vs 44 and 77: 6 combos at 25%? frequency, so less than 2 combos.

I wouldn't shove on xxJQT though.

if I wouldn't have a read on him being some super local topreg, I'd probably clickraise him

you know what's good about the spot?

when you'll raise him on river, he will inevitably ask himself if you're pouncing on perceived weakness of his sizing, and that may be enough to justify calling to himself, when it's otherwise struggling through letting go of aces.

he can shift from exploiting to self-exploiting before realizing

I probably call river and feel like a nit. The problem is what is he really going to call a jam with that we beat? I guess AA, KK, KQ and maybe AQ, but do those hands call a jam every time? If he's taking that line with AQ then he's going to have all the AK straights too. He can also have other hands that beat us like sets, QJ.

Don't get me wrong. I think we're going to have the best hand the vast majority of the time here. I'm just not sure if we're good often enough when our jam is called. All the hands that beat us snap call and some of the hands we beat that we want to call might make tight folds.

The small river size could imply a weaker value hand, but on the other hand he could just have AK for the nuts and be betting small to try to get a call from Jx.

Very polar situation. Villain bet over 80% pot on flop and 75% pot on the turn. But on the river it was less than 50% pot. Which means to me one of two things. Either he has a monster like JJ/QQ/QJ/AK and wants to get called or bluffed. Or he has a hand like AA/KK/AQ and is concerned that we could have JT/QT/98hh/K9hh/QJ and wants to see if we raise.

If Villain were to continue betting at 75% pot it would be a 40bb river bet and we would have no Fold Equity if we jammed. So Villain can have a monster and wants us to bluff jam.

In this spot I just call. I just don't think he calls a jam much unless he has us beat. Even though we can have a missed flush draw.

Cheers guys.

I elected just to call, based pretty much on what has been said above. He mucked, looked a tiny bit shocked but never said anything. I'm guessing he probably had KK.

He would have turned KK face up after being called. Its an overpair. He could have the winning hand. I'm guessing he had AXs and you were lucky a heart didn't come.