Should hero bluff this river?
Hi all,
Had this hand in a tournament last week. It's a €350 live tournament and four players remain out of about 300. The chip leader has around 30bb, two players have around 20bbs, and hero has around 15bbs. It's a mystery bounty, and most of the large bounties are gone, but there are still bounties of at least €300 for knocking out players.
PREFLOP
Folds to villain (20bbs) in the BTN, who opens to 2bbs. Villain is clearly no expert, but apparently quite a thinking player, with some experience. SB folds, hero (15bbs) is in the BB with K♠J♣ and calls.
FLOP (5.5bbs)
7♥5♣3♠
Hero checks, villain checks.
TURN (5.5bbs)
7♥5♣3♠5♦
Hero's range is all over this board, and he very much doubts villain is checking overpairs on the flop. In other words, villain likely has overcards that he'll fold to pressure. Hero bets 3.5bbs, villain thinks for a moment and calls (WTF, was not expecting that)...
RIVER (12.5bbs)
7♥5♣3♠5♦A♥
Hero...?
6 Replies
I'd probably just jam pre. I'm fine with the turn bet - he should have a lot of Ax but on the river we need to x/f.
I would also jam preflop. And Villain may have called with a big Ax type of hand. Still we get a lot of folds and don't have to play it OOP
I like the turn bet and sizing. On most rivers we can bet like 60% pot and get a fold.
But here the A hits and it doesn't look good. Even if Villain doesn't have an A we are in trouble because its the perfect card for Villain to bluff with after we check (because we continue betting with hands like A7/A3/5x) and it is unlikely we have A high and bet the turn though we could have A4/A6 type hands.
In theory we can bluff the river but I just think Villain will mostly call with Ax hands which should be a large part of his range. It could be a value bluff if Villain has hands like 98/86/96s. And Villain could fold if he really thinks we have 5x. But here I would check/fold.
I'd probably just jam pre. I'm fine with the turn bet - he should have a lot of Ax but on the river we need to x/f.
For me 15bbs is a little too much to jam pre. There are some significant jayjumps, and bounties in play mean that I'm gonna get called wider than usual.
Agreed that on the river we have to check-fold - and that's what I did; never got to find out what he had.
I would also jam preflop. And Villain may have called with a big Ax type of hand. Still we get a lot of folds and don't have to play it OOPI like the turn bet and sizing. On most rivers we can bet like 60% pot and get a fold.But here the A hits and it doesn't look good. Even if Villain doesn't have an A we are in trouble because its the perfect card for Villain to bluff wit
10bbs or less I would certainly jam pre. 15bbs is a little too much imo.
Agreed that on most rivers we can bet pretty large and get a fold, and that was my plan until the ace appeared. Any argument for the ace giving us additional fold equity?
Also agreed that Ax is a large portion of his range, and I need to be careful on this river as a result.
Yep, had to check-fold, and never found out what he had.
With 15BB you have more fold equity, and you're facing a button raise so there's a solid chance you have the best hand. I'm not sure at this stage the bounty outweighs the pay jumps (what are the payouts here, BTW?), but being called wide for a bounty might mean you have the best hand more often when you're called.
But I'd suspect if there's 4 left out of 300 that the ICM effects tighten button's calling range significantly, since you can threaten nearly his whole stack. Getting a weak Ax to fold preflop is a nice win for you.
With 15BB you have more fold equity, and you're facing a button raise so there's a solid chance you have the best hand. I'm not sure at this stage the bounty outweighs the pay jumps (what are the payouts here, BTW?), but being called wide for a bounty might mean you have the best hand more often when you're called.But I'd suspect if there's 4 left out of 300 that the ICM effect
Yes sure, those are good points. Payouts are:
1st: €9,101
2nd: €5,686
3rd: €4,070
4th: €3,140
The big bounties had all been won at this point, average remaining bounty was around €450.
