2/5ths of a royal flush faces river decision
1/3 NLHE 9 ways
V - Young asian station. Have hundreds of hours with him and he has several tendencies. He's slowly become more aggressive pre and post, he 3! K9ss in CO vs HJ earlier and showed. He can run a bluff but not multistreet. When his value or even thin value meets aggression he gets very sticky, he had Q5s he limp called pre earlier OOP he x/called down on A-J-5-blank-5 where he x/raised river. His aggression is 90% value. 900$ CO.
--- V eff at 900 ---
One limp in EP, H in LJ to 15 with K♥ T♥, V calls, BB fish calls, EP limper fish calls. 4 ways 3rd to act.
Flop 60 - T♠ 9♣ 3♥
Check, check, H cbets 20, V calls, fish fold. HU OOP.
Turn 100 - 8♠
H barrels 50, V raises to 150, we tank a bit and call
River 400 (715 back) - 6♦
H checks... what are you doing here if V bets?
4 Replies
i would do the opposite on every street postflop except checking the river
of those the only one that i think is close evwise is betting vs checking the flop, i think betting turn probably a small error, and i think b/c turn is generally a massive mistake vs almost everyone. more so when you decide to add the read "90% of his aggression is value"
i would fold the river probably regardless of size and assume k is negative to have in our hand and t is neutral - slightly positive (he shouldnt bluff with (m)any tx, though unclear to me that any of his valuebets have a t in them)
do think his sizing is somewhat small / suspicious for what hes representing ott (2p+?, maybe sets+) but a lot of people will only ever raise ~3x a bet
edit: didnt see flop was 4 ways the first time. makes turn signif worse
I would bet the flop, maybe bigger. I would check the turn, as it becomes connected and he could have lots of draws. I would fold to the turn raise as played, but you could very well still be ahead.
He’s not bluffing here. If he bets, fold.
Would probably follow this line in position, but not OOP. Would go bigger pre-flop to thin out the field, but checking the flop with top pair. Not a big mistake cbetting the flop, but this hand is too vulnerable to bet for protection. One pair hands are usually no good when the money goes in.
Wonder if V bets the flop if you check. Your hand should try to get to showdown cheaply unless you improve. I do think it is a big mistake barreling the turn, don’t think villain hangs around with QT or A9. Again when raised on the turn, it’s probably not QT or A9, so I’m folding.
I’m always wondering about your image banana. If villain’s aggression is 90% value, how can you call the turn or river? Any value villain has is stronger than you. Even with AT, I want to win a small pot or give up.
It seems unwise to jam and try to run him off a hand when you describe him as a station.
