5/10: line check with 77

When I see a donk like this I usually think top pair like maybe A9. I might raise to take back the initiative, but I like your flop call fine.

When the flush comes in on the turn, I’d claim it and raise your $340 now, expecting a fold. But as played, I think you get the river fold.

However, with no description of hero, I’m less confident. If you come off as an aggressive player, V might know you will bet if he shows weakness and pick you off with his monster.

Fold turn

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Pre and flop fine.

It's maybe a mistake, but I think I just fold turn. Relative hand strength is pretty high with two bets into a multiway pot on this heavy of a board, non-broadway 4-flush isn't worth much and a 4-straight on a flushed board ain't worth much, and I don't think they'll be polar enough in this spot for our made hand to be worth much. It doesn't take much to call B35 IP in what is at this point a HU pot, so maybe all that adds up to enough for a call but anytime someone's betting multiple times into a protected pot, I'm looking for the nearest off-ramp.

River doesn't seem good. Other than the hands we already beat, this feels like a spot where they're only probably folding the bottom of their range. I'd just cash in the SDV.

Actually this line from V doesn't look polar at all to me, rather condensed around 9X and some 2p.
I don't see V donking flop with a set, a FD or a SD here, but maybe I'm wrong.
Imo, my hand has close to 0 SDV already otf, and even more so ott; therefore I decided to call on both streets because I got decent odds and thought I could bluff on quite a few rivers.
V being so obviously capped (in my mind at least), I thought for a second about raising both on flop and turn, but then decided that my hand was not polar enough. Actually, I would have probably raised flop if V2 had folded.

I'd be now curious to know which range you assign to V in this spot ...

What are you representing on the river? It is hard to believe you have a flush.

In this configuration, I'd just call ott with a flush fairly often. Admittedly though, I'd probably raise quite a few nfds otf.

OTR, I would bet also Q9s for value, fwiw.

solver seem to really like raising your hand with heart otf. is a pain in the ass to sim because i only have 3 way solver but i gave v1 basically bb call range without some offsuit stuff, gave ep limper a bb range, and u hj range. i dont have a guy behind u in the sim. will pure call 77!h though. sim not worth much as v1 supposed to basically range x turn but vs this size you call with your hand and fold without a heart. pure bluffs your hand for an overbet like b200 but u gotta be careful because you're supposed to have trace combos here. you are not supposed to valuebet q9 here which should be fairly clear. worst hand it bets is JT and it uses like a 2/3 sizing along w some flushes for that, other than that its flushes (i dont really see what u could possibly get value from w q9 if you think he is decent, and being deeper u need to worry more about reopening the action)

unsure how relevant any of this, he probably just has a good hand when he leads this texture 4 ways into a fish lol. if i got to river with your hand with a heart combo without sdv (i think you have effectively 0) i would bluff. most surprising part of sim to me is we pure peel q9 vs this action otf (occasionally raising bdfd combos) which i think is probably a recipe to lose alot of money in reality despite the odds and maybe changes with another guy behind us. river int sizing wise and seems to split b65 and i guess all in. when i simplify sim to b65 / all in / x, sometimes 77 starts checking as neither size really makes a ton of sense for them but i think the hand is wp by you. in theory at least you just call turn with a flush overwhelming amount of the time (85%)

allegedly turn peel is worth about 2.5bb vs this size / action

i really doubt v has 9x (or 2 pair for that matter, but at least thats mildly conceivable) ott if your only read is he knows what he's doing

I agree that they're somewhat condensed, but I think the floor is harder than the ceiling. Donking 38% pot into a 4-way protected pot just makes no sense with air on this board.

B33 OTT makes me weight their range away from the nuts, but 1) It's possible they're inducing (even if that's discounted) and 2) I think there's a large swath of hands with good absolute strength hands that didn't like this turn.

I mean, I'm probably just flat wrong about folding turn, so I'm not going to fight this too vociferously. Again, I think each of the sources of our EV are pretty crappy, but there are a lot of them and you don't need much to justify calling B33 in position. Still don't think folding is a 2.5bb mistake, I think that's assuming villain has some amount of balance in their range, which makes folding any made hand with any redraws obviously terrible against this size and position.

Honestly I might raise the flop against this sizing - calling is sort of meh even when you make the straight you're probably not getting paid. As played on the turn raising is probably the way to go to set up an aggressive river bet - his sizing is very suspect the whole way here, so you need to play this aggressively at some point.

I actually have a good sim for this spot (HJ open, BTN CC, SB CC, BB defend), and it only calls flop 21% vs B44 (folds remaining 79%) and continues less than 50% even against B22 (raise 32%, call 12%).

Turn is mix call versus B22 flop, B33 turn; it's pure fold versus B44 flop, B33 turn.

I had to run subtree configs inside of subtree configs, and I still couldn't get it to say anything useful about the river on this node. I just can't get it to use OOP's turn sizings enough to get a workable river range, and constraining the sizing options will defeat the whole purpose of our conversation about condensed ranges.

Thanks all for the feedback, particularly to RaiseAnnounced and submersible for their solver-work.

Some further comments from my side and hand reveal (in spoiler).

About solver work:
It is quite interesting how two similar simulation setups led to very different conclusions. This kind of supports my impression that multi-way pots are an extremely complex and unstable system (perhaps even close to chaotic in the mathematical sense ?), and I genuinely have no clue how much currently available multi way solvers can be trusted.
I must say though, that this initial setting

doesn't seem very accurate to me. This is quite different from HJ limps and BTN (H) isos. If BTN CC, his pf range is capped, and this will have an impact on the rest of the hand, won't it?

About V1:
As mentioned, V1 is basically an unknown, so I don't have any proper read on him. He has been very quiet and playing TAGish so far, hence my impression that he somewhat knows what he's doing, but that's about it.
In this specific hand, most likely he shouldn't have a donking range in theory, with all the caveats about theoretical solutions in multi-way pots. So, in a vacuum, we cannot assume his donking range is balanced.
Well, if V1 is capable of including a donking range 4-ways into a somewhat balanced overall strategy, then he plays in a different league and deserves to get my money anyway 😀 .

Then, which hands are you targeting with your bluff? Or do you bluff with 7h7x purely to balance your value bets with a flush?

Preflop standard
Flop: V donk is an odd line multiway. Raising him seems optimistic. Call is fine, but V is often ahead with combo draws (T9/87) and sets.

Turn: this is the decision point I think. H has way more NF and QQ/99/88. V has JTs and combo draws and Ah9/8 etc. I think he has to bet bigger with his sets.

I basically view V's turn bet as a blocker. I would much rather raise turn than bluff at the river.

AP River: brick, V x. I don't think he's trying to induce because his good hands have to bet the turn bigger and we have the NF more often.

V has SDV but how much? If we bet, it has to be bigger than this. We have to fold out a bunch of random crap like A9/A8, QJ that he could get to the river with. I don't know how sticky he is. I hate giving him ~3-1 to call down with marginal stuff.

PS: yeah, looked at spoiler and we need to go bigger or x behind and take our SDV against his Ahx that missed.

rekt

guess turn peel worth alot

would conclude he doesn't understand how multiway changes things

Pre: Good open.
Flop: Flat is fine multiway, raising over the donk and call is ambitious.
Turn: With the heart draw now live, calling’s reasonable but you’re already in trouble vs V1’s range.
River: Not loving the bluff.. when he check/calls flop + barrels turn, he’s weighted to strong one-pair+ that aren’t folding for half pot.

Well, in a way I feel bad taking advantage of your work, while I do nothing (besides proposing the topic).
But if you are interested in this spot and are ok sharing the results of your sims, that's of course very appreciated.
In case, take your time, no hurry from my side.

Just ran this overnight, and I don't think you'll find the results any more satisfactory, either in terms of its judgment of your play or the convergence.

Versus B22, it mixes raise and call with 77hx OTF and pure folds the turn. Not sure how much stock I put in turn play as it folds some straights too and it's showing the same equity for 77hx and 77 wo a heart.

Versus B44, it mostly raises 77hx OTF, with a sliver of folds.

This is a very generalized sim for all boards, etc. I'm sure I could improve convergence by running a sim for this spot specifically, which 1) doesn't seem like a good use of my time, 2) still probably won't produce results you'll be thrilled with, and 3) I'll probably do anyway because I'm a dirty lil slut who's horny for sims.

I think the much more useful takeaways are at the very macro level: this isn't a spot with a ton of opportunity for EV, and I'd expect the passive/play-for-showdown lines to be even lower in practice given villain's lack of balance.

Okay, ran a custom sim just for this specific spot, and finally got it to converge well.

First thing I'm gonna say is that probably the biggest difference between my sim and sub's sim / general expectations is that SB starts with a very narrow range that is very heavy on the cards that hit this board.

If you instead have BB (who I have a 21% range for vs SB's 4% range) lead out and MP call, then I get very similar results to sub's: mostly raising the flop, pure calling turn with folding being a 2-3bb mistake, betting river as played.

Otherwise, my custom sim didn't change much from the general one for 77hx specifically facing action from the SB. Mix raise/call flop, pure fold turn. Some straights do still fold turn, so that wasn't just a convergence issue.

Of course real-life preflop ranges are probably closer to the 21% range than the 4% one, then again I think flop leading ranges are less balanced. BB is leading both streets with AJo, which I don't really think you're going to see realistically, and the value range is much narrower than what I'd expect from the population (as validated by results).

So again, I think this all suggests the passive/showdown lines are performing worse in practice.

the guy donking overcalls from the bb no?

honestly think he will be >21% given how people play, esp w 2 fish in the hand (sb and limper, i cast no aspersions on op!)

Yes, lol.

Well IP ISO vs two limpers and BB is also on my to do list so you COULD standby for another bump a week from now…

Or just consider the important point demonstrated: if the donker has 20%+ pre and has bluffs like AJo in their lead range and a lot of sets+ checking turn and basically no single pairs 9x+, then folding turn is a mistake.

The donker’s range here is probably wide pre but their postflop range is much more merged.

Thanks again for your work!

I still think equilibrium ranges in a spot like this are very different from reality; for instance, I would be astonished if any human BB had AJo in their donking range otf.

The most interesting bit for me is probably the flop raise from H, which now both sim approaches seem to agee upon. In game, I thought about raising but I decided against it because of V2 already calling the donk bet.
However, solvers do not seem to consider this a valid argument against raising, or perhaps that's even an incentive to raise (?).

Interesting hand.

I think we might be able to raise flop, or raise turn. I think raising turn is probably better than calling, but folding may be best.

I don't know what to do on the river. I don't think we have showdown value, but I'm not convinced V isn't trapping. If our plan was to call flop and turn so we could bluff river, then I guess bluff.

No idea about the size. I guess at this depth, a 60%-ish pot bet is okay.

Yes, I believe the fact that villain has a merged range with none of the bluffs the solver has and a ton of polarity errors (like the hand he showed up with) makes raising the more favorable option for continuing.

yep

i mean results make it clear this is very bad line vs v

would also guess v is unintentionally splitting range ott sizing wise and act accordingly in the future