The murder of Charlie Kirk
Can we all admit that the majority of extremism is coming from the left over the last handful of years?
Apparently they j
Would you agree that the 3 biggest causes of the increase in murder rate were: Dems successfully fighting for school closures, Dems successfully shutting down as much of the economy as they could and Dems fighting to reduce the amount of police officers?
If you really want to play the “which party caused the spike” game, the actual sharp, synchronous shock before murders took off wasn’t school closures or police staffing; it was Trump’s stimulus checks. The money hit in April, gun sales spiked, and the homicide surge followed. By your own causal standard, that makes Trump the proximate cause.
What your 3 causal factors and the studies promoting such completely ignore is the weapon profile. Glancing at St. Louis zip homicide data, the rise wasn’t in knives, blunt instruments, or shotguns/rifles. Those stayed flat or fell off. The entire excess was handguns. So explain how your 3 biggest causes produced that effect?
Would you agree that the 3 biggest causes of the increase in murder rate were: Dems successfully fighting for school closures, Dems successfully shutting down as much of the economy as they could and Dems fighting to reduce the amount of police officers?
The pandemic itself was the problem. How Trump handled it was excruciatingly bad. In that he did basically nothing and let each state handle it. In 2020 the US had 18% of worldwide Covid deaths and only 3% of the population.
So basically the choice of all states to close schools was to save lives. And it did. But it also raised the number of poor young people who had to stay home. In retrospect schools could have stayed open for young people (without issues that would make Covid a threat like older or vulnerable parents, grandparents that lived with them, obesity, asthma, heart issues, etc.) and had Zoom meetings for those at home but all the facts weren't really known at the time and the poor didn't necessarily have laptops.
The economy going south was not something that Democrats had anything to do with. Businesses had to change the way they did business in order to stay open. Keeping theatres open would have meant a huge increase in deaths. Same with bars and restaurants and most other types of public places. The other thing to note is that a lot of people stopped going to these types of places before they were shut down. So they wouldn't have been able to stay open anyway or if they could have, the number of workers would have been greatly reduced.
Part of the tanking of the economy had to do with supply chain issues which had nothing to do with Democrats or Republicans. Another part of the tanking of the economy had to do with the shutting down of the border by Trump. A lot of businesses failed because of the lack of immigrant labor. Something like 40% of farm workers are immigrants. So many US farms went under in 2020 due to lack of workers. Similarly there was huge inflation as a result. Which affected poor people significantly.
Some Dems fought for reductions in payments for police departments but for most of us that wasn't the issue. The issue was to hold police departments accountable for the mistreatment of people who had been arrested and to make them train their officers to handle arrests properly without racism or sadism. And by mistreatment I'm talking about beatings and killings of people in handcuffs. This way we would reduce the number of murders by police officers. It should be noted that Trump shut down these programs in all police departments once he started his 2nd term.
In the end the pandemic caused a huge number of deaths. By the end of 2022 there were over 1,130,000 deaths in the US due to Covid (there were likely many more that weren't diagnosed properly because early on there weren't tests everywhere...). The increase in homicides was likely about 4,700 in 2020 (it went up from 2019 by 1.43 per 100,000 people). The number of Covid deaths was over 400,000 in 2020. So if we had kept all schools open for everybody and all businesses open as well the number of deaths would have doubled to tripled (the estimate was over 1,000,000 deaths in 2020 alone and roughly 2,000,000 to 3,000,000 overall).
Democrats are basically pro life for people who are actually living. And we would be happy to help reduce the number of deaths by gun violence by making all gun sales subject to approval by the Federal government (which Republicans refuse to pass though 90% of Americans are in favor of). There are still many states that allow private gun sales without State or Federal approval. There are also many other ways to reduce deaths by guns but as long as the democrats don't have 60 Senators those laws won't pass federally. Instead if you are a Republican I guess you are happy to just send your prayers to the families of those who have been killed by gunfire.
That made me laugh. And so I looked up how many flu deaths we get each year
In 2018-2019 there were 28,000 flu deaths in the US. It went down to 22,000 in 2019-2020. And then there are no stats for 2020-2021. Which I think means there were no flu deaths. In 2021-2022 it was 6,000 and then up to 21,000 in 2022-2023 and then back to 28,000 in 2023-2024.
So yes the US saved 6,000 deaths in 2019-2020 flu season. Then 28,000 in 2020-2021 and 22,000 in 2021-2022 and 7,000 in 2022-2023. So we saved a total of 63,000 Flu deaths because of covid.
There also might have been a reduction in car related deaths during the pandemic, but I think suicides went up.
No, dont you get it, if you subtract 63000 deaths from 1219487 you get 1156487
checkmate
Man... whatever your news sources are man... burn them. Do yourself and your mind a favor and start listening to some people funded new sources, because the garbage you're putting in your head right now is not good for you.
I mean that seriously. It's warping reality for you to a point you don't live there anymore.
Don't kill the messenger. Mr rick's source said the uptick in murder was due to what dems fought so hard for - closing parts of the economy and schools. So it isn't my sources.
You do realize most of the people ITT lived in America during covid, right? It is a bit too early to be trying to change history and act like it was trump's idea to shut down parts of the economy and schools. Dems fought their butts off to shut down the economy and schools and trump/repub caved because of the optics.
If you really want to play the “which party caused the spike” game, the actual sharp, synchronous shock before murders took off wasn’t school closures or police staffing; it was Trump’s stimulus checks. The money hit in April, gun sales spiked, and the homicide surge followed. By your own causal standard, that makes Trump the proximate cause. What your 3 causal factors and the
As I said to LOL above - it was Dems who fought their butts off to shut down as much of the economy as they could and they wanted daddy gov't to throw money out of helicopters to cover every inch of this country. Repubs drastically reduced the amount of handouts that the dems were fighting for. This is something we all nearly all of us ITT lived in America 5 years ago.
Don't kill the messenger. Mr rick's source said the uptick in murder was due to what dems fought so hard for - closing parts of the economy and schools. So it isn't my sources.
But what you are ignoring is that what the Democrats and Independents and some Republicans did to save between half a million and a million lives in 2020 only cost ~5,000 more murder victims.
And you are blaming Democrats for a gun situation in this country that is literally causing thousands of people to get killed each year because of a lack of processing gun purchases (especially of used guns) and the type of guns that are allowed to be sold.
For the record I analyzed the CDC's state data in 2021 after vaccines were introduced and it became clear that the death rate in Red states was about 20% higher than the death rate in blue states. My guess is that the same was true for "red" rural areas vs "blue" suburban and urban areas. Because it was likely about people refusing to get vaccinated. So Republicans were causing thousands of deaths among themselves because of how they were handling vaccinations.
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As I said to LOL above - it was Dems who fought their butts off to shut down as much of the economy as they could and they wanted daddy gov't to throw money out of helicopters to cover every inch of this country. Repubs drastically reduced the amount of handouts that the dems were fighting for. This is something we all nearly all of us ITT lived in America 5 years ago.
I wasn’t arguing Trump caused the spike. The point was that if you want to frame it that way, his checks fit the timeline better than your 3 causes, which shows how inapplicable that framing is.
Some St. Louis zips hit a homicide rate of 300 per100k in 2020, up from 200 the year before, which puts them among the highest localized homicide rates in the world. (These are small areas, maybe 5–10k people.) But get in your car, drive five minutes and the rate drops to effectively zero and what little violence there is tends to be domestic. And when an area goes from 2 murders to 3, we don’t really treat that as a 50% surge. But in a way, going from 200 to 300 in a small zip isn’t that different, because it’s really just a multiplier of that community’s pre-existing homicide base. Multiply that across dozens of similar neighborhoods, and suddenly you’re looking at thousands more homicides nationwide.
That’s not to say the other things you mentioned or even the stimulus checks weren’t factors. But factors aren’t the same as cause; a cause is something we can isolate as the driver of an outcome. A stat guy I worked in direct response marketing with called these "anomalies," which he defined as not being paid enough for a longer answer. Outliers = hard.
Everyone also knows that sex offenders are more at risk of being targeted for what they have done. This is exactly why there are
of rapists who identified as male when they committed the offense, decide they don't fancy going to a male prison and change gender while waiting to stand trial.
People will note that in such cases, the identity is the effect, not the cause.
Everyone also knows that sex offenders are more at risk of being targeted for what they have done. This is exactly why there are
of rapists who identified as male when they committed the offense, decide they don't fancy going to a male prison and change gender while waiting to stand trial. People will note that in such cases, the identity is the effect, not tThe trouble with your example is that it takes a few high-profile cases and treats them as if they define the whole group. Saying “this person only identified as trans to avoid prison conditions” isn’t proof that trans identity is an “effect.” It’s just anecdote being used to explain away the bigger reality: trans inmates are disproportionately targeted, regardless of the path that got them there.
The trouble with your example is that it takes a few high-profile cases and treats them as if they define the whole group. Saying “this person only identified as trans to avoid prison conditions” isn’t proof that trans identity is an “effect.”
Except I very carefully mention that we are talking about individual cases and not groups. In this specific case, the weight of evidence suggests the individual changed their gender identity to avoid going to a male prison (or because they fancied going to a women's prison), hence why they were eventually sent to a male prison.
It’s just anecdote being used to explain away the bigger reality: trans inmates are disproportionately targeted, regardless of the path that got them there.
I highly doubt you can provide evidence to support this assertion, but I'm all ears.
(fwiw I think trans probably are disproportionally targeted, but 1, you can't state is as an incontrovertible truth, and 2, it's probably down to individual factors rather than group membership, as the data reported early itt suggest most trans people are not subjected to sexual violence in prison)
Except I very carefully mention that we are talking about individual cases and not groups. In this specific case, the weight of evidence suggests the individual changed their gender identity to avoid going to a male prison (or because they fancied going to a women's prison), hence why they were eventually sent to a male prison.
Anyone who would undergo a sex change operation for the sole purpose of avoiding going to a men's prison has mental health issues.
I highly doubt you can provide evidence to support this assertion, but I'm all ears.
(fwiw I think trans probably are disproportionally targeted, but 1, you can't state is as an incontrovertible truth, and 2, it's probably down to individual factors rather than group membership, as the data reported early itt suggest most trans people are not subjected to sexual violence in prison)
Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) / National Inmate Survey (2011–2012): Found that 35% of transgender inmates in state/federal prisons reported sexual victimization, compared to 4% of the general prison population.
National Crime Victimization Survey (2017–2018): Transgender people overall experienced violent victimization at more than four times the rate of cisgender people.
Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) / National Inmate Survey (2011–2012): Found that 35% of transgender inmates in state/federal prisons reported sexual victimization, compared to 4% of the general prison population.
National Crime Victimization Survey (2017–2018): Transgender people overall experienced violent victimization at more than four times the rate of cisgender people.
Right, so therefore,
and that data says say nothing to the point i questioned, namely:
Or when you said covid is the cause do you mean that the policies Dems fought so hard for during covid was the cause?
Herman Cain, an esteemed republican presidential candidate once argued that gays and lesbians have the same rights as hetero people because heterosexual people are free to marry those of the opposite sex and not free to marry those of the same sex, just as gays and lesbians are free to marry someone of the opposite sex but not marry someone of the same sex.
He was part of trumps circle, and died of covid. After he died, Trumps chief of staff said “we killed Herman Cain.” Covid deaths happened under Trump’s watch and were more pronounced in red states. You can learn more about this from a wonderful resource; the herman cain award forum.
Right, but then transwomen inmates are far more likely to be in prison for sexual offenses:This is important as prisoners in jail for a sexual offence are disproportionately involved in sexual assault incidents as both assailants and victimsSexual Assaults Reported in Prisons: Exp...The moral of this story is if you're in ja
You could’ve just stopped with the word right, rather than editorializing who should and shouldn’t be suprised when they get raped. The data that you supplied is heavily cherry picked and you offer no rebuttal to what I said or solutions to the actual problems. The point that trans women are sexually assaulted at extremely high rates isn’t something where we can just say that it doesn’t matter to us. Even Kathleen Stock would be appalled.
What about all the rapes of non sexual offenders?
Anyone who would undergo a sex change operation for the sole purpose of avoiding going to a men's prison has mental health issues. Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) / National Inmate Survey (2011–2012): Found that 35% of transgender inmates in state/federal prisons reported sexual victimization, compared to 4% of the general prison population.National Crime Victimization Surve
This is all correct. Also, by far, most sexual abuse of female prisoners is caused by Staff and not by inmates.
You could’ve just stopped with the word right, rather than editorializing who should and shouldn’t be suprised when they get raped. The data that you supplied is heavily cherry picked and you offer no rebuttal to what I said or solutions to the actual problems. The point that trans women are sexually assaulted at extremely high rates isn’t something where we can just say that i
Break out the violins for all the males who have raped women and children and as a consequence have a hard time in prison.
What about all the rapes of non sexual offenders?
Whataboutism.
Break out the violins for all the males who have raped women and children and as a consequence have a hard time in prison.
Elrazor, could you acknowledge that most cisgender male rapists and sexual assaulters aren’t in jail or prison? I find the rapists of women and children free to do whatever they want, even in your own data hundreds of times greater than the tiny number of trans rapists statistically much more concerning dont you? Like for example donald trump and most of his cabinet.
I’m not going to try and prove a universal negative just to counter another non-sequitur. Even if that were possible, that’s not my burden because I’m not making a universal claim.
trans inmates are disproportionately targeted, regardless of the path that got them there.
That’s not a universal claim; it’s a generalization about "a class" of people. That’s the non-sequitur I’m referring to. In other words, I’m not saying "all" or "every" trans inmate. I’m saying they’re disproportionately targeted as a class of people, which, with what little data we do have, clearly and overwhelmingly shows.
The moral of this story is if you're in jail for raping someone, don't be shocked and surprised when you get raped.
That, on the other hand, is a universal claim. You’re basically saying: If you’re in jail for raping someone, then you are disproportionately likely to be raped in prison. That flies in the face of common sense. I have no reason to believe that a straight male who raped a woman will then become disproportionately likely to be raped by what I assume is a largely hetero male population of inmates. More likely to be assaulted, sure, but raped? Nah.
However, I kind of get what you’re saying. I think what’s going on is that both rapists and trans inmates often aren’t in the general prison population but in protective custody. So there could be a contingent kernel of truth to what you’re saying, in that I would think anyone, rapist or not, going into a high concentration of sexual predators is disproportionately likely to become a victim of sexual assault. But that’s not because they’re rapists; it’s because they’re around a disproportionately large concentration of sexual predators. In other words, I would expect, say, an ex-cop or a rat to be more likely to be sexually assaulted because they’re more likely to end up in protective custody. Does that sound about right?
As to the example of a male rapist getting a sex change to avoid going to a men’s prison or to get into a women’s prison, I get how on the surface that looks +ev. But I’m thinking the women won’t care that he had a sex change operation and they’re way, way more likely to shank him - for raping a woman - than if he didn’t transition and went into men’s protective custody with other male rapists.
This is all correct. Also, by far, most sexual abuse of female prisoners is caused by Staff and not by inmates.
The only one I looked had staff abuse slightly lower but yeah what a bunch of creeps. Really wasn't expecting to see that. Then again, if some of them get convicted and sent to prison, they shouldn't be shocked or surprised....
