NCAA Football 2025
Not sure who will win this year, hopefully Arch goes nuts and UT can kick the door in after making the quarterfinals the
Penn State ahead of Indiana????
Alabama 8 spots ahead of Florida State??
Georgia Tech needs one of the worst missed calls of all time in order to beat Wake Forest, and they move UP a spot in the coaches poll. They are ranked ahead of Vanderbilt?
can put these in any order:
1 Oregon
2 Ohio State
3 Miami
very good undefeated teams with multiple good wins:
4 Ole Miss
5 Texas A&M
6 Indiana
7 Oklahoma
8 Alabama
TT is undefeated, has a bunch of NFL players that they bought, and won decisively on the road against a good opponent in their only real game. If they were in the SEC/B1G they would be top-10
9 Texas Tech
one-loss teams with good wins but warts. UGA lost at home and almost lost to UT as well. FSU lost to UVA in OT on the road which is not horrible but certainly isn't good. LSU has a couple solid wins, but their offense has been awful.
10 Georgia
11 FSU
12 LSU
good-on-paper teams who haven't beaten a top-thousand team yet and had a close loss to a very good opponent.
13 Texas
14 Penn State
3 undefeated teams with solid but not amazing wins and UT who should've beaten UGA but probably should've lost to cowbell
15 Vanderbilt
16 Iowa State
17 Tennessee
18 Georgia Tech
A mix of good and bad. Close losses to good teams, wins over mediocre but not horrible teams, etc.
19 Missouri
20 Michigan
21 BYU
22 Virginia
23 Notre Dame
24 Mississippi State
25 Illinois
THURSDAY
Sam Houston 9:00:00 PM -2.5
New Mexico State 9:00:00 PM 2.5
FRIDAY
UNC Charlotte 7:00:00 PM 27.5
South Florida 7:00:00 PM -26.5
Western Kentucky 7:00:00 PM 2.5
Delaware 7:00:00 PM -2.5
New Mexico 10:00:00 PM 2.5
San Jose State 10:00:00 PM -2.5
Colorado State 10:30:00 PM 5.5
San Diego State 10:30:00 PM -5.5
West Virginia 10:30:00 PM 18.5
BYU 10:30:00 PM -17.5
SATURDAY
Air Force 12:00:00 PM 11.5
Navy 12:00:00 PM -11.5
(first leg of the CiC trophy)
Army 12:00:00 PM -7
UAB 12:00:00 PM 7.5
Kentucky 12:00:00 PM 20.5
Georgia 12:00:00 PM -20.5
Kansas State 12:00:00 PM 6.5
Baylor 12:00:00 PM -6.5
Iowa State 12:00:00 PM 1.5
Cincinnati 12:00:00 PM -1.5
ISU is 5-0, Cincy is 3-1 (1-0) coming off of a wild win over Kansas. ISU has a very favorable B12 schedule, so a win here puts them in incredible position to make the B12 title game.
Boston College 12:00:00 PM 6.5
Pittsburgh 12:00:00 PM -6
Clemson 12:00:00 PM -13.5
North Carolina 12:00:00 PM 14
Illinois 12:00:00 PM -9.5
Purdue 12:00:00 PM 9.5
Wisconsin 12:00:00 PM 16.5
Michigan 12:00:00 PM -16.5
Ohio 12:00:00 PM -14.5
Ball State 12:00:00 PM 15
UTSA 1:00:00 PM -5.5
Temple 1:00:00 PM 6.5
Wake Forest 1:00:00 PM 6.5
Virginia Tech 1:00:00 PM -5.5
Campbell 2:00:00 PM 42.5
North Carolina State 2:00:00 PM -42.5
Western Michigan 2:30:00 PM -12.5
Massachusetts 2:30:00 PM 13
Oklahoma State 3:00:00 PM 20.5
Arizona 3:00:00 PM -19.5
Boise State 3:30:00 PM 20.5
Notre Dame 3:30:00 PM -20.5
If the MWC wants to have any hope of wrestling the playoff bid away from the AAC, this is probably their best shot at taking a stab at it. Notre Dame needs to win out, as we know.
Oregon State 3:30:00 PM -1.5
Appalachian State 3:30:00 PM 2
Louisiana-Monroe 3:30:00 PM 10.5
Northwestern 3:30:00 PM -10.5
James Madison 3:30:00 PM -19.5
Georgia State 3:30:00 PM 19.5
Florida International 3:30:00 PM 8.5
UConn 3:30:00 PM -7.5
Vanderbilt 3:30:00 PM 10.5
Alabama 3:30:00 PM -10.5
Vandy is 5-0 and already has two P4 road wins. Granted, those wins are against VT and USCe, but both of them were won this weekend. Alabama is coming off of a huge win over UGA. Also, lets not forget that VANDY BEAT BAMA LAST YEAR, so it's certainly possible.
Texas 3:30:00 PM -6.5
Florida 3:30:00 PM 6.5
Florida has had a rough start to their season, but they only have one SEC loss. Texas has just been playing scrimmages since the OSU loss, so it will be interesting to see how they fare against UF's solid defense.
Virginia 3:30:00 PM 7.5
Louisville 3:30:00 PM -7
With so few conference games, the ACC has a lot of teams who think they have a shot at the title. This is UVA's toughest remaining game. If they can pull another upset here, they can realistically think about the playoffs. For their part, Louisville is looking to move to 5-0 and a top-25 ranking ahead of the Miami tilt.
Syracuse 3:30:00 PM 16.5
SMU 3:30:00 PM -16.5
Washington 3:30:00 PM -5.5
Maryland 3:30:00 PM 5.5
Penn State 3:30:00 PM -25.5
UCLA 3:30:00 PM 25.5
Central Michigan 3:30:00 PM -8.5
Akron 3:30:00 PM 8.5
Eastern Michigan 3:30:00 PM 9.5
Buffalo 3:30:00 PM -9.5
Miami (OH) 3:30:00 PM -3.5
Northern Illinois 3:30:00 PM 4.5
Texas State 4:00:00 PM -13
Arkansas State 4:00:00 PM 13.5
Kent 4:00:00 PM 45.5
Oklahoma 4:00:00 PM -45.5
Michigan State 4:00:00 PM 11.5
Nebraska 4:00:00 PM -10.5
Coastal Carolina 6:00:00 PM 18.5
Old Dominion 6:00:00 PM -17.5
UNLV 7:00:00 PM -3.5
Wyoming 7:00:00 PM 4
South Alabama 7:00:00 PM 2.5
Troy 7:00:00 PM -2.5
Florida Atlantic 7:00:00 PM 4.5
Rice 7:00:00 PM -4.5
Texas Tech 7:00:00 PM -11.5
Houston 7:00:00 PM 11.5
Both teams are 4-0. If TT wins, they'll probably crack the top-10 and inch closer towards a playoff bid. If Houston wins, they'll be in the top-25 and will pop up on everybody's radar.
Mississippi State 7:30:00 PM 14.5
Texas A&M 7:30:00 PM -14
Cowbell is 4-1 with a win over ASU, and almost beat Tennessee last week. ATM absolutely dominated Auburn but somehow only won by 6. I feel pretty confident that MSU is gonna beat somebody they shouldn't this year.
Colorado 7:30:00 PM 13.5
TCU 7:30:00 PM -12.5
Kansas 7:30:00 PM -4.5
Central Florida 7:30:00 PM 5.5
Miami 7:30:00 PM -4.5
Florida State 7:30:00 PM 4.5
Miami can all but seal a playoff bid with a win here considering how light the rest of their schedule is. FSU will either be on the brink of elimination with a loss, or will be right back into the top-10 with their second top-10 victory.
Minnesota 7:30:00 PM 24
Ohio State 7:30:00 PM -23.5
Tulsa 8:00:00 PM 20.5
Memphis 8:00:00 PM -19.5
Nevada 10:30:00 PM 14.5
Fresno State 10:30:00 PM -14
Duke 10:30:00 PM -3
California 10:30:00 PM 3.5
JKS after dark. Both teams are undefeated in the ACC and dodge the heavyweights, so the winner will feel pretty good about their chances at a surprise run to the title game.
What are you talking about? They beat Nevada, FIU and Villanova at home - they deserved that #3 ranking.
A loss to Oregon should keep them in the top-5.
You'll see how right I am when they post back to back victories over elite B1G foes UCLA and Northwestern in the coming two weeks
snark attack, everyone get back to the beach!
Spoiler
and as always appreciate the information Galen
Record 11-11. Superlocks: 2-2Here's the LOCKS of the week:FSU -6.5 (-115)USC -6.5 (-112)Wash + 10.5 (-146)LSU ml (+100)Penn St -2.5 (-145)Georgia -2.5 (-132)$20 to win $688.20The superlock of the week is Penn State. At Penn State, whiteout at night, is literally the toughest sports environment on this planet. The only thing scarier than that is actual lions on the field. Do
Incredible
I have Alabama at 53% to playoff (Vegas is much higher)
If they win/lose to Vandy that goes to 60%/28%, so 32 points of playoff equity riding on the game for them
I have Vandy at 16%, which would go to 47%/11% with a win/loss. Included a 2 point team rating bump along with the win.
68 points of playoff equity riding on that game!
I have Miami at 93% (Vegas has been preposterously lower for 3 weeks), which goes to 97/84 with a win loss, so not a huge swing there. (Although I might be overestimating their odds in the worlds where ND goes 8-4)
But, it's an absolutely massive game for FSU. They're 50% in with a win - they'd have wins over Alabama and Miami, they'd be a lock at 10-2 even if they lose the ACCCG (and they'd be less likely to play Miami in the ACCCG anyway), and they'd even have lots of outs at 9-3 if their third loss is to UF, since they would be 6-2 in the ACC with a h2h over Miami so they would still have a shot at the ACCCG.
They'd even have like 1% chance of an at-large at 9-3 if they lose to say Pitt and @ Clemson, and then blow the doors off of NC State and UF to close out the season. If Bama is also 9-3, they might win that tiebreak if that's the final team they get compared against.
If they lose, it basically locks Miami in to the ACCG, so there's only one spot left and since they'd have 2 losses and don't play GT or Louisville (and probably don't win tiebreakers against them), they probably miss the ACCG. So, it's pretty simple - win out and they're in at 10-2, lose another game and they're out at 9-3.
Don't underestimate the importance of Duke / Cal
if Duke wins:
They're 5% to finish 8-0 in the ACC which obviously puts them in the CG
They're 20% to finish 7-1 but beat GT. This is like 99% to get them into the CG since Miami and Louisville play each other.
They're 5% to finish 7-1 but the loss is to GT. They'd still be ~25% to get to the CG
So something like 26% to make the CG with a win, and 5% with a loss (win out)
If Cal wins:
1% to win out and finish 8-0 in the ACC
7.5% to finish with 1 loss, which often comes to Louisville, but that's fine as Louisville is 75% to lose 2+ ACC games even if they beat Cal.
Also, if UVA pulls the modest upset over Louisville, they're 15% to win out (they already lost to NC State)
I imagine wins over UL and FSU will be pretty powerful tiebreaks vs GT
AAC title race is hilarious. 14 teams with 8 conference games makes for wild tiebreakers and lack of h2h. Smartly, they just use committee rankings as the tiebreaker, to ensure they have the best shot at getting teams in.
Three teams have gotten headlines so far: Tulane (beat Duke and Northwestern), USF (beat Florida and Boise) and Memphis (beat Arkansas).
Memphis (1-0) plays both of them at home - v USF, v Tulane and v Navy, and they miss North Texas
Tulane (1-0) plays @ Memphis, and misses USF, Navy and North Texas
USF (0-0) runs the gauntlet - @Memphis, @Navy, @North Texas, and they miss Tulane
North Texas (1-0) catches both key games at home - v USF and v Navy and misses Tulane and Memphis
Navy is already 3-0, but has their hardest games remaining @Memphis, @UNT and v Tulane.
ECU and UTSA are dark horses as well.
It's pretty likely that 3 teams finish 7-1 or better, since the bottom half of the conference is so bad.
It is crazy how down to the detail you think about each conference race and I say that in the most complimentary way possible.
Record 11-17. Superlocks: 2-3
Here's the LOCKS of the week:
Maryland +6.5 (-120)
Florida +5.5 (-115)
Vandy +10.5 (+100)
Mich St +12 (-105)
Texas Tech -11 (-119)
Fla St +4 (-110)
$20 to win $920.57
Superlock: Have to go with Texas Tech. I think they're gonna blow Houston out. What Texas Tech did to Utah even after they lost their QB tells me this team is on another level. The money being invested in their roster is showing. Houston is gonna get crushed.
No where to go but up ILP!
I really wish FSU hadn't choked. A top 10 matchup between The U and FSU would've made for compelling TV tonight. Still should be a great game.
Belichick should have stayed away from college.
This is pathetic.
ILP missed a clear superlock of the week.
#14 ISU currently their getting their **** pushed in. Hot damn
