ATo IP vs hot fish

Fold pre. We don’t have many bluffs here, but he might not know that. I’d jam.

Seems like a loose call. Maybe 3b and isolate fish?

As played, I think it's a fold on the flop. Middle pair seems to week to call MW, especially considering the villian raised pre. His raising range probably dominates your hand

Really thought this thread was going to be about a sexy Villain, not one that's running good. I feel tricked.

As for the hand, I might call preflop if the whale was behind us to entice him into the pot, but as it stands you have a decent equity hand HU but a crappy one for multiway action. 3! if you think your hand is better than his.

If you're not shipping the river, why are you even playing this hand? You probably should have made your move on the turn. You're potentially letting a one-liner to Broadway get there cheap. Clicking fourth street also gets the river SPR under 1, so V won't be able to fold.

i'd just opt to fold pre and find better spots. Dont forget, just because someone is making a bunch of mistakes doesnt mean you will automatically benefit from them. ATo is a super borderline hand best suited for isolating weak passive's, not LAGs on a heater. As played he's never checking value on the river so he's probably got here pretty weak, I'd bet 50 bucks to get everything under TP to call.

raise turn to ship river

as played bet whatever you think Ax will call. im guessing $100.

pre is better as a 3b

im not folding the flop to a 1/3 pot size bet

ATo plays poorly multiway so 3betting will be higher EV.

River is an easy jam and I think flop/turn are standard.

This is not a fold preflop in any universe ever.

Flop and Turn are good. River, he has a mediocre hand, so don't put him all-in. Bet 80$.

Grunch:

PRE - meh. I don't think it's terrible to flat pre with ATo on the BTN, but it's not super.

FLOP - we should probably fold, but if our read is that this guy is just slowly punting off his profits by monkey c-betting, I could see calling once, with intentions of taking the betting lead on future streets, depending on the run-out.

TURN - that 40% pot / 2x c-bet sizing is usually a sign of weakness. With so many draws available, I think we should start building the pot with a raise. It doesn't need to be huge. We could make it $100, and set up a less than PS jam on the river.

RIVER - ugh. V looks like he's either given up or he's sand-bagging. Just bet $120 and pray he doesn't check jam on us.

I do not like preflop. 3bet or fold. Probably 3bet.

I would be more inclined to call if we were suited but would lean to 3betting then too against the described player.

I think postflop is fine and I’d probably jam river. He is either trying to bluff catch or he is giving up, so don’t let his bluff catching hands off the hook. This is especially true since you think he’s on winner’s tilt.

Think I'd rather 3bet against the loose opener. With stronger hands that play well multiway (ex. AQs) there is more reason to flat to invite the fish along, but ATo ain't that hand, imo.

Think I just fold the flop. Even though dude is betting small, he's still betting into the world (which include fishy players that he likely has no FE against). Plus there's two to react behind. Plus our Ace outs brings in the most obvious draw.

For me the turn really depends on whether this guy stacks off with weaker hands here (such as somehow showing up with Ax). If he's a bet/folder, I probably just call in position to evaluate river (likely calling a decent bet, shoving over a small bet, or betting myself when checked to), but I have a much different image to deal with than you.

Think I shove the river, especially with a Banana image. It's unlikley he's checking better for fear of it getting checked behind. There's lots of busted draws to rep. It's only a bit over a PSB. Sounds like he's capable of making a call here with much worse.

GcluelessNLnoobG

calling is probably better than folding yes

Result:

Idk why you thought he had the Ace with how the hand went down? But I think the action indicates that shove was too large since he's probably not calling with a J then.

When the OOP PFR c-bets flop, barrels turn, and checks river, he's either got some SDV hand that isn't nutted, or he's checking to check-fold if we breathe on the pot, or he'll be trapping, hoping to induce.

When we jam, all his bluffs are just going to fold, and all his traps will beat us into the pot. The portion of his SDV range that we beat is likely to be somewhat elastic and over-fold to a jam, rather than over-calling when we bet smaller, and the portion of his SDV range that beats us probably isn't folding.

What worse hands take this line and call our river jam? Maybe A4s or A8s that was played very aggressively. Maybe AK or AQ if he's really bad or tilted enough that he just can't find the fold button. But A4, A8, and AK/AQ are frequently checking turn. His river check-calling range is mostly AT+, and our hand blocks a lot of the range we're hoping will call.

This is one of those spots Phil Galfond talks about, where we need to use small sizing or just check back when we lack natural bluffs and our opponent's range has a mix of some weak and some strong hands, but doesn't really have any bluffs.

From the innerwebz:

River Betting Strategy with Limited Bluffs
Understanding River Betting

When you reach the river in poker, your betting strategy can significantly impact your winnings. If you find yourself in a situation where your range has few bluffs, it’s essential to adjust your approach accordingly.

Key Considerations

Natural Value Bets: Focus on betting with strong hands that can extract value. If you have a strong hand, it’s often a good idea to bet for value, as your opponent may not have enough bluffs to call you.

Bluffing Frequency: If your range lacks bluffs, you should be cautious about betting. Your opponent will likely fold weaker hands if they perceive you as strong, especially if they have few bluffs themselves.

Adjusting Your Strategy

Bet Sizing: Use smaller bet sizes when you have a strong hand but limited bluffs. This can entice your opponent to call with weaker hands, as they may feel they are getting a good price.

Check-Backs: In some cases, checking back on the river can be beneficial. If you suspect your opponent has a strong hand and you lack bluffs, it may be better to avoid putting more money into the pot.

Conclusion

In summary, when your range has few bluffs, prioritize betting with strong hands and consider your bet sizing carefully. Adjusting your strategy to the dynamics of the game can help you maximize your profits while minimizing losses.

This is so overrated. Worrying about your range when you really need to worry about their range because thats all your opponent is worried about. These guys are playing the raw value of their 2 cards vs the board. They couldnt put you on a hand even if you showed 1 card. Honestly they probably have no idea what a range even means.

The general flow is this; if they are capped and you have value then you bet small. If you're bluffing you bet big. If all you have is SDV you check. 2 pair is a clear value bet, but shoving is crazy. You put him on AQ/AK for no other reason than you wanted him to have those hands to justify a jam and look what happened. If you had bet small then he'd jam and you could lol-fold.

An example of a poor call pre-flop costing hero his stack. I’m not sure a 3bet helps with this particular hand, but it’s a better move if you’re not folding. If you convinced yourself V’s opening wide because of his image, it calls for a 3bet. ATo just doesn’t cut it (too vulnerable to being dominated) in a multi-way pot. This is why the recommendation to fold pre.

As played it’s like a snap raise on the turn. I usually just double the bet $80 when wanting a call. Maybe with this bet, villain would have better defined his hand. The set is hidden, and you took the lead with your 2pair against all the ace hands that had you crushed pre. Those ace hands are another reason the recommendation to fold pre.

If villain shoves, do you call off with 2pair? This is a tough read as villain is betting small to get called, and it’s so hard to see a set here. You almost have to call the flop, but that turn ace ends up hurting you. You got trapped & that’s another reason for the recommendation to fold pre.

A gambling lesson is to never bet against a streak. You can go with it, but never against it. You don’t want to mix it up with someone on the rungood without great strength.

It's not just about our range. Also in the post, which you omitted from your quote:

"...Your opponent will likely fold weaker hands if they perceive you as strong, especially if they have few bluffs themselves."

V may not be consciously thinking on this level, but he'd have to be pretty terrible to not intuitively understand how a thin value hand gets downgraded on the turn and river. Clearly he does understand, when he checks river and then tank-calls the jam after flopping a set.

There's literally no amount we could bet on the river and then fold to a raise when there's 180 in the pot and we have 230 left. Even if we bet 50, if V jams we'll be getting over 2.25 to 1 on a call. How do we fold when our read is that V is on winner's tilt and it looks like the small bet sizing could have induced a spaz-raise?

I dont take his jam as a spaz raise, I take it as a misread on our part. We thought we capped him but he suddenly comes alive so we made a mistake and need to reevaluate. It's easy for me to say fold without being in the heat of the moment, and getting 2:1 I might just make an undisciplined call because I cant really put opponent on anything. V was supposed to call a small bet, never a large bet, and certainly never jam on us. Thing is I've honestly never seen a fish prey upon bet sizing tells. If they're weak they just universally call for a good price, if they're strong they raise. The only thing they seem to intuitively understand is that they can trap vs large sizings.

How did we cap him? V raised pre, c-bet the flop, and barreled turn. At most you could say he's capped when he checks the river. But is he?

If so, then why would we fold if he check-jams? As you said, "as played he's never checking value on the river so he's probably got here pretty weak."

If we bet when he checks to us on the river, it's either going to be followed by a fold, a call, or a raise. If he's trapping vs a large size, how do we bet large and then fold when he jams, laying us a bazillion to one?

If he's weak, and never checking value, but will call getting a good price, then we don't need to worry about him raising when we bet small, right? But if he does raise, how do we ever fold?

This just seems like a pretty ordinary situation where V slows down and checks because the run-out gets scary. His range is going to be thin value, sandbagged monsters, and bluff-give-ups. It's just a SRP. No one is capped on this board with a ton of straight draw combos that got there.

We can bet small to get called by worse, or we can just check it back because he could be trapping. I don't see how bet-fold is ever going to be the play here, when we get to the river with less than 1.5x pot.

Since we're not bet-folding, we should size a bet to get max value from worse. I don't think he's folding AK/AQ or A8/A4 for $120. I think a lot of those hands get snap mucked if we over-bet jam. We don't need to worry about him raising because we're not folding.

nobody who isnt drunk or on mega tilt is calling more than $200 with top pair on pretty much any river in my game or any 1/3 game ive ever played. take that info for what you will.

I get called by worse than top pair, and for more than $200, pretty frequently.

I'm not suggesting AX should call. I don't think it should. I hope I'd find the fold with all my TP combos here. But if the river was another club, and I somehow arrived there as hero, with KcTx, V checked to me, and I decided to go for it, I expect to get called by AX about half the time.

In fact, the board could be paired, with three flush cards, and three to a straight on it, and I still expect to get called about half the time, by AK, AQ, and maybe even worse AX on a board like this.

It's low stakes. They're not checking to check-fold top pair. They're checking to pot-control, and are planning to check-call. They may sometimes make a disciplined fold when we jam, but very often they'll tank for a needlessly long time, then flick in the call.

It's why I expect to get called when we have something nutted, and to a lesser extent, why I think it's okay to bet somewhat thin for value here. I wasn't expecting V to show up with a flopped set, but I also wouldn't expect V to take this line all that often with any hand better than ours.

I mean...if V doesn't have the nuts, what hands does he have that can call a 1.3x jam? If he's capable of doing mental math and figuring out the MDF $hlt in his head, in real time, under-pressure, yeah, maybe he quickly figures out he should fold AX.

But if he's just the typical low-stakes rec, all he's doing while he's tanking is hoping to magically divine the answer somehow, or debating if he wants to re-load or go home if he calls and loses.