Can hero call this river jam after the turn checks through?
Hi all,
Had this hand last week - it's the second level of a €350 buy-in live tournament. Not many reads on any of the pl
I will now typically fold to this small of a flop c/r without top pair or better and no draw. It is almost always a player with a really good hand that isn't a semi-bluff. Its like they want us to continue and not fold. The c/r sizing in this spot that represents semi bluffs and strong hands are typically at least 3x and often 4x (my sizing HU) or 3.5x. Where I will call or
Yes, it definitely feels like villain really wants action when he uses this size, but we also can't overfold vs it because we give up a huge amount of equity when we do, especially against bluffs.
There isn't that much difference here between what villain did and what you described in your second point; the only difference was that villain was out of position.
Personally, "reads" do not factor that much into my decisions, unless a player has an established tell that I know about, or it's glaringly obvious one way or the other. Some things obviously give the game away. In situations like this I try to think more in terms of ranges - where I am in my range, and how wide I have to call down to remain 'unexploitable.' I called down too wide in this case, but I have no problem doing that if something feels off in how villain played the hand, and I know that they're a competent player and can reasonably be bluffing with this river bet.
Yeah it's likely just bad, although sometimes it's funny how a play that a fish would make at low stakes can circle back to being a sick merge bet from a high stakes crusher. I think you could make an argument for it with the right set of assumptions (that you are always betting turn with your stronger hands when checked to, that you're generally sticky and prone to making hero
Yes that's a good point, it could be a crusher merging. But I think more likely a non-crusher spazzing out. I guess it's true that I'm betting many strong hands when he checks to me - but even then, I still have a lot of Kx in my range that are gonna check back and snap off any river bet, and most of my Kx beats his hand. This is what I mean - the bet and previous action really did not make sense.
I would fold, he could have a good pocket pair, flush, king or queen, A5 for a straight. he can have a lot because he called on the bb. if he's a crazy agro who bluffs a lot then maybe consider a call.
how do you like gto plus? can you do preflop and post flop? and can you do multiway? I have the cheap version of piosolver, and i used gto wizard and currently use octopi poker which isn't a true solver
So I decided to roughly run this spot in GTO+. I'm trying to do some additional solver study so my game doesn't stagnate. Anyway I used standard solver ranges for the LJ open and BB defend. Most of the hand was modeled pretty closely to as played with the exception that the flop raise from your opponent was to a bigger 10 BB sizing (I used saved bet size parameters tailored mor
how do you like gto plus? can you do preflop and post flop? and can you do multiway? I have the cheap version of piosolver, and i used gto wizard and currently use octopi poker which isn't a true solver
how do you like gto plus? can you do preflop and post flop? and can you do multiway? I have the cheap version of piosolver, and i used gto wizard and currently use octopi poker which isn't a true solver
It's good, but no preflop or multi way functionality. It's like a budget version of PIO. You can drill against solutions which is nice. I just use HRC for pre flop and they work pretty well in tandem.
I ran it through octopi poker and it said to call 51% of the time and fold 49% with your exact hand and if your pocket tens didn't have a heart you should fold 100% of the time. overall it should be a fold 59% of the time. mind you the bet sizings were a little off and I used the same stack size for you both which was roughly 35bb effective and octopi poker solver isn't really a solver it's a library of presolved gto spots.
I also ran it through piosolver. I'm not a pro and I only used piosolver like 4 times in my life so I'm no expert and I used piosolver in the most basic way.
it said TT is a negative ev and you should fold 76% overall
The solvers are pretty sensitive to the exact inputs. Like something as simple as the pre flop ranges you use can effect the result. When I was setting up the GTO + solve I posted I used pre-solved 40 BB preflop ranges from poker coaching.com. This was just for convenience, but I noticed that the ranges were somewhat different than another set of pre flop solved 40 BB ranges I have used. Poker coaching included some additional Kxs and Qxs for some reason compared to the other site.
Anyway I have compared some GTO + solves to GTO wizard and PIO solves in the past to check for accuracy, and I found that if you are careful to get the parameters exactly the same the results are typically "basically" the same. There might be some minor differences based on the accuracy you solve to or something, but no real material differences.
However, the differing results with the different solvers posted here goes to show that we shouldn't just try to copy solver outputs.
TT is ultimately a pure bluffcatcher and whether we should call depends on whether our opponent is over or under bluffing.
OP, not being facetious, but is it possible that V just had a really good read on you here and figured you’d be likely to call a big river bet with a Q or JJ-66?
The pot is 16.5BB on the turn. Betting 10BB is bad after his check? Tough call for KX no fd, and there’s plenty of hands you don’t want to give a free card to.
Well you guys got me curious so I ran a solve too. Found some things of note:
1. Hero is pretty much range betting flop.
2. Villain is indeed check-raising flop with KTo a significant portion of the time:
3. Hero has a plus EV call with TT vs the flop check raise.
4. The EV of villain betting/checking turn with KTo are pretty close when they have a diamond, but without one they should lean towards checking:
5. Jamming river with KTo loses significant EV compared to using a smaller size/checking:
6. The EV of calling with TT on the river is slightly above zero when hero has a diamond, and slightly below when they don't:
But of course this assumes that villain is playing like a solver and has enough bluffs when he jams the river. Personally, I don't think that's the case, and pure-folding TT is fine for hero facing this river jam. Here is how villain is meant to play the river:
It's just not realistic to expect humans to find all those bluffs, and of course the correct response is to reduce one's calling range, including the threshold hands like TT.
OP, not being facetious, but is it possible that V just had a really good read on you here and figured you'd be likely to call a big river bet with a Q or JJ-66
The pot is 16.5BB on the turn. Betting 10BB is bad after his check Tough call for KX no fd, and there's plenty of hands you don't want to give a free card to.
I really don't think so dude. We were on the second level of a tourney and had no prior playing history. My take is that it was an "I don't know what to do so I'll jam" bet. He might also have been in a rush to rebuy and get back to starting stack, etc.
Not sure what you mean with betting 10bbs after his check. After the flop action I think he's pretty much committed with his hand, unless the the turn and river are both diamonds, or either of them is an ace. For sure, neither player wants to give free cards here - but also, neither hand is really strong enough that they want to pile money in either. His river bet was the strangest part of this whole hand, and as we can see from the solver output, it's a lower EV move than simply betting smaller or checking.
