NCAA Football 2025
Not sure who will win this year, hopefully Arch goes nuts and UT can kick the door in after making the quarterfinals the
TCU says "Hello, Karma!"
This is awesome for digging my way out of crap games:
But...as far as I can tell you are using "vs" where "at" should be, which is killing me like a Castellanos floater
what if some games are at neutral sites?
I picked a hell of a day to not watch football
at least I am going to see the Cal game (until I fall asleep)
JKS starts 10/11 for 120 yards and a TD and about 5 absolutely insane completions
Unreal catch in the tcu game
Wow what an all time cover...(for an early week +6 guy)
Does Cal have the best QB in the nation?
imagine the furor if ilp was a fan of oh idaho eastern oregon truth serum or rough and tumbleweed panhandle texas
I will say this. I'm not an inherent hater of rankings. I think all those people who say, "Rankings are ridiculous, we shouldn't even have them til such and such date" are dumb. Sports is not a serious venture. Rankings are for entertainment purposes.
Which is why the marble game is teh nut-nut hogger.
Honestly if your a fan of a blueblood team, there is absolutely no reason to ever pay attention to rankings. It's all about going 10-2 or better. Do that and youre in. Dont do that, youre out. Everything else is just noise. So as a Michigan fan I could care less what happens.
I'm a Nebraska fan which technically makes me a fan of a blueblood team but in no way are we going 10
Are the Weasleys the Nebraska of Potter world?
I'm not good at Harry Potter references. I did see the first one years ago but can't remember much now. My wheelhouse is more 70s/80s B horror movies. That said this is what I got from a quick google search:
The Weasley family is a prominent, pure-blood wizarding family from the Harry Potter series, known for their red hair, loyalty, and humble financial status. The family includes parents Arthur and Molly Weasley and their seven children: Bill, Charlie, Percy, twins Fred and George, Ron, and Ginny. They are characterized by their courage and strong moral compass, often supporting Muggle rights and fighting against Lord Voldemort.
Like the Weasleys Nebraska is a pure-blood. Red hair = red uniforms, so that works. Nobody is loyal in college football. Not sure if Nebraska has a humble financial status. Hopefully they don't or they'll probably never be relevant again. And they're definitely not the moral compass for anything and they haven't displayed any courage for decades.
Overall not the worst analogy.
They’re the poorest & most Muggle-friendly of the pureblood families but that’s all I remember. I think some of the other families have died out, which could represent the Callahan & Frost years.
Last week was supposed to be a dud on paper, and instead we got UCLA over Penn State, Florida over Texas, UVA over Louisville and Cincinnati over Iowa State (to be fair, they were -1.5).
Let's see if this week can top it:
WEDNESDAY
Missouri State 7:30:00 PM -2.5
Middle Tenn. St 7:30:00 PM 2.5
Liberty 8:00:00 PM -2.5
UTEP 8:00:00 PM 2.5
THURSDAY
Louisiana Tech 7:00:00 PM -6
Kennesaw State 7:00:00 PM 6.5
East Carolina 7:30:00 PM 7
Tulane 7:30:00 PM -6.5
The AAC race is funky, they only play 8 conference games so that they can try and get more high profile OOC games, and a bunch of the best teams don't play each other. The "big 5" right now is Memphis, Tulane, UNT, USF and Navy. ECU is the 6th team and can break through with a win here. If Tulane holds serve here, their matchup at Memphis is likely to be for a CCG berth.
Southern Miss 8:00:00 PM -2.5
Georgia Southern 8:00:00 PM 2.5
Jacksonville State 8:00:00 PM -8.5
Sam Houston 8:00:00 PM 9.5
FRIDAY
South Florida 7:30:00 PM 1.5
North Texas 7:30:00 PM -1.5
It's not an elimination game, per se - USF plays Memphis and Navy and UNT plays Navy. But neither plays Tulane, so it will be awfully hard for the winner to get to the championship game. Huge amounts of playoff equity are on the line here.
Fresno State 9:00:00 PM -6
Colorado State 9:00:00 PM 6.5
Rutgers 9:00:00 PM 10.5
Washington 9:00:00 PM -9.5
Rutgers has actually shown some life so far this year, but doesn't have the wins yet. They lost close to Iowa and Minnesota. Washington beat previously undefeated but lightly regarded Maryland to get to 1-1 in the B1G. Washington is pretty good, and has an outside shot at the playoffs. They have 3 ranked teams on the docket - @ Michigan, vs Illinois and vs Oregon. If they finish 10-2, they'd be a lock.
SATURDAY
Louisiana-Lafayette 12:00:00 PM 17.5
James Madison 12:00:00 PM -17.5
UNC Charlotte 12:00:00 PM 17.5
Army 12:00:00 PM -17.5
Alabama 12:00:00 PM -3
Missouri 12:00:00 PM 3.5
More than half of the SEC games feel absolutely massive right now. Missouri has wins over Kansas and USCe, while Bama has beaten UGA and Vandy and Wisconsin, but as we know lost to FSU in the opener. A loss certainly doesn't eliminate either team, but really reduces the margin of error, and with so many ranked opponents left, margin of error is going to be needed.
Central Florida 12:00:00 PM 10.5
Cincinnati 12:00:00 PM -10.5
Houston 12:00:00 PM -13.5
Oklahoma State 12:00:00 PM 14
Pittsburgh 12:00:00 PM 9.5
Florida State 12:00:00 PM -9.5
Pitt was written off after back to back one-score losses to WVU and Louivsille, but they very much control their own destiny. They play @ FSU, @ Georgia Tech, vs Miami and have ND sprinkled in there for good measure. FSU took their second loss of the season, but they are still a lock if they win out.
Stanford 12:00:00 PM 18.5
SMU 12:00:00 PM -17.5
Ohio State 12:00:00 PM -15.5
Illinois 12:00:00 PM 16.5
Illinois recovered nicely from that 63-10 beatdown at Indiana, beating USC and Purdue. Ohio State is starting to round in to final form. Illinois remaining schedule is devoid of ranked teams, which means a win here would make them a huge favorite to playoff, but a loss (particularly a big one) means they probably don't get in at 10-2 unless Duke and USC turn out really well.
UCLA 12:00:00 PM 7.5
Michigan State 12:00:00 PM -7.5
You know you're going to watch
Miami (OH) 12:00:00 PM -9.5
Akron 12:00:00 PM 10
Toledo 12:00:00 PM -9.5
Bowling Green 12:00:00 PM 9.5
Washington State 12:45:00 PM 33.5
Mississippi 12:45:00 PM -32.5
Northern Illinois 1:00:00 PM 1.5
Eastern Michigan 1:00:00 PM 1.5
Massachusetts 2:30:00 PM 3
Kent 2:30:00 PM -2.5
Air Force 3:30:00 PM 7
UNLV 3:30:00 PM -6.5
Appalachian State 3:30:00 PM -2.5
Georgia State 3:30:00 PM 3
Old Dominion 3:30:00 PM -14
Marshall 3:30:00 PM 14.5
Oklahoma 3:30:00 PM 3
Texas 3:30:00 PM -2.5
The Red River Shootout has incredible stakes this year. Texas is on the brink of elimination (although they could certainly still get in to the SECCG at 9-3 since they'd only have 2 SEC losses), while OU faces their first real test without Mateer.
Iowa State 3:30:00 PM -4
Colorado 3:30:00 PM 4.5
ISU suffered their first setback of the season. One of the few B12 teams with a solid OOC win, they would be in good position to playoff at 11-1 even if they lose the B12CG.
TCU 3:30:00 PM -1.5
Kansas State 3:30:00 PM 1.5
TCU's in the same boat - the win over SMU might end up looking pretty decent, but they already lost a B12 game.
Virginia Tech 3:30:00 PM 14.5
Georgia Tech 3:30:00 PM -14.5
North Carolina State 3:30:00 PM 22.5
Notre Dame 3:30:00 PM -21.5
Wake Forest 3:30:00 PM -2.5
Oregon State 3:30:00 PM 2.5
Indiana 3:30:00 PM 8.5
Oregon 3:30:00 PM -7.5
A battle of the juggernauts. Both are fine with a loss, but a win would lock them in to the playoffs and put them in the driver's seat for the B1G championship game. Neither faces OSU during the regular season.
Nebraska 3:30:00 PM -5.5
Maryland 3:30:00 PM 6.5
Northwestern 3:30:00 PM 22.5
Penn State 3:30:00 PM -21.5
Ball State 3:30:00 PM 9.5
Western Michigan 3:30:00 PM -8.5
Navy 4:00:00 PM -7.5
Temple 4:00:00 PM 8.5
Arkansas 4:15:00 PM 13.5
Tennessee 4:15:00 PM -13.5
UAB 6:00:00 PM 5
Florida Atlantic 6:00:00 PM -4.5
San Jose State 7:00:00 PM -2.5
Wyoming 7:00:00 PM 2.5
Louisiana-Monroe 7:00:00 PM -2.5
Coastal Carolina 7:00:00 PM 2.5
Florida 7:00:00 PM 7.5
Texas A&M 7:00:00 PM -7.5
Is Florida back? A good UF is an SEC nightmare - they already lost to USF and Miami, so every time they win, it chips away at the notion of SEC supremacy.
Iowa 7:00:00 PM -3.5
Wisconsin 7:00:00 PM 3.5
Rice 7:30:00 PM 12.5
UTSA 7:30:00 PM -12.5
Georgia 7:30:00 PM -3.5
Auburn 7:30:00 PM 4.5
A loss here likely puts UGA one away from elimination. A win would make a 6-0 streak going into a season-ending showdown with Alabama very plausible for Auburn. So much on the line for both teams.
Kansas 7:30:00 PM 14
Texas Tech 7:30:00 PM -13.5
Clemson 7:30:00 PM -13.5
Boston College 7:30:00 PM 14
Michigan 7:30:00 PM 2.5
USC 7:30:00 PM -2.5
I think the B1G is very likely to get four bids this year, and the winner of this game will have a great shot at being one of those teams, while the loser will pick up their second loss and be on life support.
Purdue 7:30:00 PM 10
Minnesota 7:30:00 PM -9.5
South Carolina 7:45:00 PM 10
LSU 7:45:00 PM -9.5
Can LSU fix their offensive woes?
Troy 8:00:00 PM 10.5
Texas State 8:00:00 PM -9.5
BYU 8:00:00 PM -1.5
Arizona 8:00:00 PM 2.5
BYU is 5-0, but the back half of their schedule is a lot tougher than the front half
New Mexico 9:45:00 PM 16.5
Boise State 9:45:00 PM -16.5
Arizona State 10:15:00 PM 5.5
Utah 10:15:00 PM -4.5
The B12 is a big jumble after Texas Tech, but the winner of this team will be firmly in second place, while the loser will have to be perfect from here on out to even have a shot.
San Diego State 10:30:00 PM -6.5
Nevada 10:30:00 PM 7
Utah State 12:00:00 AM 1.5
Hawaii 12:00:00 AM -1.5
Top 3 can be in any order. Miami has the best resume with FOUR meaningful wins in the first five games. ND, Florida and USF wins keep looking better and better, and I still think FSU is very good. Ohio State's defense is insane and their offense is starting to come around. Oregon hasn't done anything other than that win at PSU which now looks a lot worse, but we'll know where they stand after this weekend.
1 Miami
2 Ohio State
3 Oregon
The next 4 can also be in pretty much any order. Ole Miss' win over Tulane and Indiana's win over ODU are also both looking like pretty reasonable assets at this point.
4 Ole Miss
5 Texas A&M
6 Indiana
7 Oklahoma
TT still doesn't have a "marquee" win, and it'll be hard to get one, but beatdowns over otherwise undefeated Utah and Houston are decent, and then they beat the crap teams by a thousand points like they're supposed to. Alabama picks up a second quality win.
8 Alabama
9 Texas Tech
The next four all have warts, but we'll know where they stand soon enough.
10 Georgia
11 LSU
12 Tennessee
13 Missouri
I don't know if UVA is that good, but FSU and @ Louisville are two extremely solid wins. Losing by 4 on the road to NC State is not great, but it was early enough to be overcome. GT should've lost to Wake and only beat Colorado by 7. Need to see more from them, and Duke and Pitt look to be decent tests. We'll learn a lot more about Michigan this weekend.
14 Virginia
15 Georgia Tech
16 Michigan
USF deserves better. They ALSO blew out Boise State and lost to Miami, and on top of that they also beat Florida. Why should a close loss to ATM put ND so far ahead of them? The North Texas game will sort this out.
17 South Florida
18 Notre Dame
BYU is undefeated against a light schedule. Illinois has a couple solid wins but also lost a game by 53 points. FSU's losses aren't that bad and they BEAT ALABAMA. They should be getting more credit for that. Vandy is still solid, nothing shameful about losing a hard fought game on the road to Bama. Memphis is 6-0 but feels a bit like a house of cards.
19 BYU
20 Illinois
21 Florida State
22 Vanderbilt
23 Memphis
A lot of teams could be 24-25. ASU/ISU/TCU/Utah/Cincy all seem pretty indistinguishable so far. Texas and Penn State are certainly top-20 teams in Vegas, but haven't beaten a single team with a pulse yet. USC, Nebraska, Washington or Auburn could all play their way in very soon.
24 Arizona State
25 Iowa State
The squad I trust more than any other is that tOSU defense. It's insane
I'm still not buying Ohio State. They haven't played anybody. Beating Texas without a QB is basically equivalent to Oregon beating Michigan last year. It's nice but it means nothing. Also, their Washington win is highly sus too. Washington, like Nebraska, doesn't have Big Ten quality lines rendering Ohio State's boa constricting victory over the Huskies to meh status. tOSU is still a team that lost a ton of talent from last year, with only a JAG at qb, their worst RB room in decades, an OL and front 7 that is nothing special, and the same shaky kicker that's guaranteed to cost them at least 1 game.
We can make fun of Penn State all we want (and I love it) but I still have them winning @Ohio State. It's certainly the most winnable Ohio State game Penn State has had since McSorley was their QB. Don't be surprised if Illinois takes them down this weekend (altho Illinois' OL actually got manhandled by Duke so idk). And I said it preseason and I'll say it again: Ohio State is absolutely drawing dead at Ann Arbor. If they are not exposed by then they will be that day. Their version of Cade McNamara is no match for Michigan's goat level QB. Our defense is gonna destroy their pedestrian offense, but they won't have an answer for Underwood (becuz nobody does). And even if I'm somehow wrong about everything, Ryan day will **** the bed and save me anyways.
Hush you. Matt Patricia is the greatest DC since ever and he should be given at least a 5 year contract extension right now.
have a confession to make that i think is kinda funny but it's not
phởnetically i read your name as booger wolfbox and immediately think of congealed soup in a to-go container
Rutgers 9:00:00 PM 10.5
Washington 9:00:00 PM -9.5
Rutgers has actually shown some life so far this year, but doesn't have the wins yet. They lost close to Iowa and Minnesota. Washington beat previously undefeated but lightly regarded Maryland to get to 1-1 in the B1G. Washington is pretty good, and has an outside shot at the playoffs. They have 3 ranked teams on the docket - @ Michigan, vs Illinois and vs Oregon. If they finish 10-2, they'd be a lock.
They did this before the conference shift. UW just loves to make Rutegers play at 4am EDT.
Oh wow, I did NOT realize that NC State / UVA was a "nonconference" game
UVA, Duke, GT and Miami are the most likely contenders (SMU and Pitt and Louisville all still have a shot as well)
UVA is 13% to win all their ACC games and they'd be in
14% to lose 1 to not-duke. That eliminates Duke. They'd need Miami or GT to lose 1 (94%), and then to win the tiebreak (???). GT is the more likely to lose 1, and if GT loses it's most likely to Duke, so UVA is more likely than not to win that tiebreak. Say they're 90% in in this scenario.
26% to lose 1 and it's to duke. So they'd need Duke to lose 2, which is tough bc that usually means Duke loses to GT which means GT probably gets in. But they could also win a tiebreak against Miami if Miami loses to Louisville or something. Call it15% in in this scenario.
So UVA is something like 29% to be in the title game
GT win out is 12%
lose to not-duke is 18%, also probably something like 85% in this scenario
losing to Duke is 16%, and they'd be drawing slim. Maybe 5%
So GT is something like 28%
Duke is easier, most of their equity is either win out (8%) or beat GT and UVA (both at home) and lose 1 other game (24%)
So they're at like 32%
Miami is a flip to win out, and 19% to lose to somebody other than smu/louisville and 17% to lose to one of those 2. Louisville already has a loss, so something like 86% to lose again even if they beat Miami.
Although Miami could get hilariously left out if 2/3 Duke/GT/UVA go undefeated. But proably something like 85% to go.
Then the remainder 15% is Louisville running the table, Pitt making a miracle run, SMU going 7-1 or 8-0 and knocking Miami out, and other random backdoor outs for Duke/UVA/GT, and then some insane chaos with massive multi-team tiebreaks with 2 losses
wild - in expectation, we will see 8 top-25 teams and 3 top-10 teams lose this weekend
7 Indiana / 3 Oregon gives us a guaranteed top-10 loss
8 Bama / 14 Mizzou gives us a guaranteed top-25 loss and 42% chance at a top-10 loss
1 OSU / 17 Illinois gives us a guaranteed top-25 loss and a 14% chance at a top-10 loss
Four top-25 teams are underdogs to unranked teams:
6 Oklahoma is 52% to lose to Texas
21 ASU is 65% to lose to Utah
24 USF is 51% to lose to UNT
15 Michigan is 56% to lose to USC
Three others are close:
10 UGA is 40% to lose to Auburn
18 BYU is 47% to lose to Arizona
22 ISU is 42% to lose to Colorado
And then there is an 80% chance that AT LEAST one of these 7 teams loses:
5 ATM (30%), 9 Texas Tech (17%), 11 LSU (26%), 12 Tenn (19%), 13 GT (16%) 16 ND (6%), 25 FSU (23%)
Record 15-19. Superlocks: 3-3
Here's the LOCKS of the week:
Illinois +14.5 (-110)
Missouri +3.5 (-118)
Indiana +7.5 (-112)
Florida +7.5 (-122)
Georgia -2.5 (-140)
Michigan ml +118
$20 to win $907.99
Super lock: It's gotta be Michigan. USC has no defense. Illinois basically dominated them the whole game. Two ILL fumbles inside the 5 yard line dramatically altered the score. USC couldn't even stop Michigan State (but luckily MSU couldn't stop them either). Michigan is the real deal. A true national title contender. Our defense is elite. Our QB is goat-level. When you have that working for you, you are a legit threat no matter who you face, especially vs a field with no truly great team. Everybody's sleeping on Michigan becuz our coaches **** the bed in the Oklahoma game. This is a different team now. USC is still a JV team. They will not come close to matching our physicality. Big boy football is coming to town. Michigan 34 USC 17.
