$1/$3 — Unsure if River Bet is Value or Bluff (AK vs Weak Rec)

Why did you lead into the 3-bettor on a K-high flop? He is the one who is supposed to have AK. Plus you are crushed by AA/KK/TT and would be a in a tough spot if raised.

Would 4b or fold pre, depending on what "somewhat tight ... lacks aggression" could possibly 3b here.

Donking the flop seems silly; I don't think we are getting stacks in against any worse hand.

After the turn checks through, I think we have the best hand almost all the time. I would x/c the river hoping to induce.

I'm cool with our small open.

Are alarm bells going off when this guy 3bets us? I mean, this guy isn't caring whatsoever that this is a CO open vs Button config, right, he's just playing his hand? Prolly a you-had-to-be-there moment, but facing this large a sizing from this guy and OOP, I would actually consider a very nitty preflop fold.

Not sure what the point of the flop donk is? We even have the As so very unlikely he's on a draw to charge.

I'm also checking the turn. Highly unlikely we're getting 3 streets versus worse.

I think the river is a clear value bet (ETA: especially against a player lacking aggression i.e. unlikely to bluff) targeting QQ/JJ which is like 99.9% of his range at this point. Horrible runout for QQ/JJ, so I'd size down to like $50 or even smaller just trying to get sigh called.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Whats our plan with letting him take the lead?

Call all his bets? Check-raise at some point?

Standard play is to check to the preflop agressor.

Do you just lead when you have something and check when you don’t? Everyone can literally play perfectly against you lol

This flop donk is a huge mistake in overall strategy and far more important to fix than anything else in this hand.

To be clear, he already has the lead - we gave that up by declining to 4-bet pre.

Check-call the flop, check the turn and see what he does. Villain doesn't sound stabby or wide enough to consider a check-raise on the flop.

If he keeps barreling for three streets on this runout it's probably time to fold, maybe fold the turn depending on sizing. From description it sounds like this line would be very AK/AA/KK heavy.

4!/f pre, OOP, despite the "rec, lacks aggression," read. Bottom of my range for doing this, FWIW.

Why is H leading this flop when calling pre? If trying to lay the foundation for a Spade flush bluff with a blocking bet and NFD blocker, bet smaller. Otherwise, at a pot of 71, 265 back, H doesn't have to bet at this. Check, and see what V does.

AP, turn's a blank. 131 pot, 235 back, stacks are getting awkward. I guess H can bet 40 or so, preserving V's ability to fold (?) and charging draws.

When V x/b, I don't think they have much. I guess H can bet less on river, but betting 70 into 131 should get a lot of the same calls that betting 40 or so would when the flush card comes in. Stacks are too short to x-shove with FE, IMHO. And they never seem to fold to this move anyway. I'd classify it as a bluff from your choices.

I think you lost value by donking the flop. I would have checked called.

River bet is -EV. A flush was calling and worse was going to fold.

river bet is too big to get called by worse

flop donk is awful, you're lucky you got called by a worse hand at all, im guessing at least 50% of players fold worse to that bet.

He is going to bluff this board a lot when he missed. Tricky to tell if he is bluffing, has you beat, or you are chopping. However, donking the flop seems like a bad way to handle it.

Donking the flop was a mistake in the moment, but one thing it did do when combined with checking the turn and then suddenly waking up on the river was make your hand look very flushy. If he truly tanked for 2 minutes, then it was probably a bluff.

If you had meant to value-bet, then take GG's advice and size down to get hero-called by worse. Your bluff should probably have been a little bigger, if for no other reason than to save you two minutes of your life.

I don't think he folded a high set of an overpair to that sizing and I don't think he checks back the turn with better. He probably had QQ/JJ or maybe you were chopping or had him out kicked.

With your flop action I might suggest making 2 more smallish "pot sticking" bets. With the A♠ blocking most of villain's draws you are mainly targeting QQ-JJ for value.

Getting to the river this way we are monkey stabbing because we never gave V an opportunity to give us information.

Based on description, 3! is probably rare from this V. So he should have a strong range that connects with this board. Let him bet it. By donking the flop, we are in the dark. I think we do a ton better x/c flop, x/c turn, and if V is capable of a scared big fold, we can rep the nuts and jam river to get AA and lower to fold.

If V checks back flop or turn, then we can value bet the next street.

But as is, the only information we have on the hand is that V 3! and called a small donk. That could be JJ-QQ or any random two broadway. He could even have AA or KK and thought he was getting trappy on the turn though fd discourages that.

So V is anywhere from super weak to very strong. We are totally in the dark, and just stabbing and hoping.

It is always important to consider whether your line is giving your opponent the opportunity to tell you what they have.

Flop donk is terrible vs thinking villains. On the other hand if we are playing against a passive player who is just going to check behind hands like QQ/JJ, I am fine with the lead. By same logic, check on the turn makes sense vs an aggro opponent who could be floating you. However vs. the villain as described, after getting as safe of a card as you can on the turn, just bet another $50 on the turn.

I would consider 4betting pre, especially against a player with a fold button. This is game dependant but my personal experience of low stakes live poker is that 4bets are very nutted and players who have internalised this fact will fold up to AK/QQ here. YMMV. Snap fold if he comes over the top.

More low stakes observational stuff: If I am the villain, I read the flop donk as a bad player with a K or less often, a flush draw.

Villain has the range advantage on this board and also the nut advantage. I would check this and let him bet. We have the nutted bluff-catcher, block AA/KK and have to do some calling. Disaster would be to fold to AK.

as others mentioned, co vs btn, AK would just 4b, even vs someone that probably under 3b.

Flop: donk is bad, go for x/call or x/r.
Turn: x is fine I think. can also still bet small though after donk flop
River: you are definitely betting for value here, targeting Kx/QQ/JJ, maybe Tx. You are kidding yoursefl is someone at 1/3 is ever folding a flush here for a 1/2 pot size bet lol

I’d classify it as thin value turning into a bluff vs this type. Against an aggro reg, bet’s great. Against this nitty rec who folds anything but the nuts, better to check and win at showdown.

I love this. The whole point of donkbetting is to rep a range advantage & deny equity. Just because you see it on low disconnected flops doesnt mean it cant be used elsewhere. We dont normally arrive to a King high flop with AK after calling pre, so we're still in prime donking territory; range advantage and denying equity. A hand like QQ is much more likely to call a bet than bluff a King high flop. And when V just calls the donkbet we've successfully excluded AA/AK/KK from his range, so now the goal is to just bet whatever gets worse to call, which is gonna be something small.

Grunch:

PRE - seems fine. When we're OOP we might 4B at some frequency if we think our opponent is too wide and / or might fold, but flatting with AKo to keep the SPR more manageable is fine, especially when we're only 100BB eff.

FLOP - I'd check, not lead. We have the As in our hand, blocking some of his obvious bluff combos, and adding some equity to our hand if the turn is another spade. Just check and let him blast off if he wants. If he checks back, we can bet most turns.

TURN - as played on the flop, when V calls our 1/2 pot lead, I think we should barrel for a small size, like 1/2 pot again. If I think V is sticky, or he might have the same hand, I'd size up in preparation for betting big on a spade river.

RIVER - I like a bet here, and I'd probably take similar sizing. If we go too big we're just going to value own ourselves when he calls with his flushes and folds everything else. I think a bet here is sort of a value-bluff, in that we might push him off a chop or get him to call with some worse KX. It's kind of a free-roll when we take this sizing, so long as we can fold to a raise.

Seems like V had QQ/JJ or maybe folded AK. I think your flop-donk / turn-check line is weird and probably lost some value compared to just check-calling the flop.

its not a bluff, flush is never folding for a $75 river bet here . 2 pair is never folding. sets are never folding

you are getting value from QQ, JJ, AQ, AJ
I think he probably has qq,jj