do people fold to this river bet?

The stacks would have to be shallow for a turn check. Just seems like a great spot to semi-bluff maybe bet 60% pot. Now you can consider bluffing the river brick with a believable story if he calls the turn. At any point, likely folding to aggression.

Checking back the turn makes the story unpredictable. Villain is more likely to call the river now with weak hands, because it looks like you missed. You probably have to bet big to fold out small pairs now. Don’t think there’s enough equity in the flush draw to warrant a check.

I mostly agree with freecard. In my experience live players will hero call the river much more and a turn bet would generate many more folds, since they have to worry about facing another bet. That doesn't mean I hate the check back at certain stack depths, especially if you think this player would just call the flop with a lot of Jx.

Anyway on the river A9 has a little showdown value. I would just check this combo and use combos without SD value for your river bluffs.

I also vote for a turn semi-bluff. If you have to bet on two streets, it is better to bet on turn instead of river when you still have outs to make the nuts, and option to check or 3 barrel depending on the board/V's action.

Would assume limper has a small pair a lot.

Would often bet turn big.

As played I mostly give up river, assuming V calls a lot, but we maybe win sometimes when he has A7 or QT or something.

Stack sizes? Reads?

How much did you bet pre?

Is the board Js or 6s?

Check flop: you’re 3-way against calling stations without a made hand or a draw.

AP I would bet the turn but don’t know how much hero has behind.

I never bluff the river without a read. Too many Vs call with medium pairs.

All of this.

everyone is at least 125 bb deep

i cant see checking flop being correct it only has to work like 30% of time and their ranges have a lot of unpaired junk.

I play a lot and think betting flop is a leak.

Turn is a bet. I, or any winning player understand you can have Kx in your range with this line but this is lol live poker. When you bet the river a 6 is going to call you a lot. I think you can just do something like 1/3 again OTT and get all the 6x to fold. And you can still call a raise.

Take this FWIW...

I think most, if not all bad low-stakes recs have evolved to the point that they expect the PFR to auto-c-bet the flop, so they've gotten into the habit of floating too often, with too wide a range. This makes our flop c-bet bluffs less profitable overall.

As a corollary, I think they view it as weakness whenever the PFR checks, and as a result they tend to over-stab with too wide a range, with too many bluffs, and too many weak value hands, and their bet sizing will very often telegraph their hand strength, particularly on any board where an opponent might conceivably have a draw.

Also, not all paired boards are equal. As the PFR, we can blast away on some paired boards, but not others. I think we can blast on low-paired boards that aren't likely to hit anyone's range, like 322, but it's hard to balance when the board is JJ6. Because most low-stakes recs are going to slow-play Jx here, a big chunk of our value hands would check, so it doesn't make sense to bet with our whiffs.

Even if we're folding out someone's "unpaired junk" - what does that do for us? So what if we let 98s get a free card, and it makes a pair. It's not like 9x or 8x is going to love it if we make a delayed c-bet on the turn, when all they have is 2nd pair, crap kicker, on a board where we could have an over-pair or better.

Lastly, if we do bet the flop on a rb board, it's hard for us to credibly rep any value hand on the river when we check back the turn on a card that adds a BDFD. Like, what value hands would we have that bet JJ6rb, then check back on the K that adds a flush draw? Maybe we've filled up, but otherwise it just looks like we picked up the BDFD or we're trying to pot control with a hand that will be happy to check back brick rivers.

If we go bet 1/3-check-bet here, we're probably getting looked up a lot, when the BDFD missed. A better line would be check-bet-bet, where the turn bet is larger, at least 1/2 pot.

The turn check back looked so weak

Good answer.

Yeah, I think that's either correct or a good working start. Maybe a general heuristic would be to c-bet whenever the possible trips combos anyone could have seem fairly unlikely, and check whenever the possible trips combos seem reasonably likely.

I'd think that means the lower the pair on board, and the more bets that went in pre, the more often we get to c-bet, and probably the larger we get to c-bet. Like, no one should connect with 322 in a 3BP, but we need to be wary of 887 in a SRP.

I'd expect any board that's JJX or higher pair on the board is going to be checked through a lot, regardless of how many bets went in pre. But it would also seem like the PFR would get to c-bet those boards fairly often when IP. Maybe the variable is whether or not there are any likely draws in the PFR's range, or what that third card is, and if it connects with our range.

Thank you. It's a nice change pf pace from people telling me I'm either FOS or an idiot.

I think flop is fine, if only because GTOwiz 100bb CO vs. BB ... CO bets like 90% of the time, mixing range.

To be fair A9s/A8s/A5s are the biggest checks at around 45% (although EV for all actions is basically the same, and it's roughly 50% for the suit that isn't on the board). Then ATo/A7s are next at around 20% check.

These are robot ranges, for robot sizes, so include K3s etc. ... but eh.

Also it's not bad if V calls a lot of cbets, just like it's not bad if we have a tight range pre. and V limp/calls a lot.

FWIW after b33/call flop, when turn is JxJy6z Ky ... Ay9y is pure b75.

Ps. Kind of a lol robot thing, but when you b33 flop 98s from BB is supposed to fold without BDFD but raise ~75% of the time with one and never fold. Dito. K9s/KTs/QTs/Q9s/T9s/T8s. KQs also mixes raises, and more than 50% of the time with BDFD. Even 97s/75s does the same thing with the BDFD matching the 6. KTo/QTo basically fold pure, which is also likely unrealistic for humans.

results: i checked back river and he won with 64o

in retrospect i dislike my turn check. if he has trips and CR's me big, i guess i just have to fold my fd.

Lol, your thought process is more sound than the NLHE players'.

Your reasoning for checking back turn is good, though NFD specifically is strong enough that it doesn't fold to a raise so you can just go ahead and bomb with it. You are correctly playing the rest of your range, though, so nice work there.

OTR, A9-high is right on the cusp as a bluff candidate for CO vs BB on a paired, 2-BW board. I probably bet in game, but NGL I had to double check myself to make sure that's correct in this particular config.

Looks like A9 is indeed a bluff candidate here but without the King on board, it'd just be a check-back for SDV.

Yes people fold here but not always. At lower stakes, population overcalls rivers. If you bluff, size small (1/3 pot) repping Kx. Still, checking back is fine with A-high showdown value.

The only way you get V off that six ott is bet big and then possibly barrel on the river. I called it earlier but the check on the turn was pretty weak so you would never then fire on the river and expect a six to fold unless it’s a pot bet and even then i V is a calling station good luck. By then your A high has showdown value. If he has 7’s-9’s hes simply not folding the river after the check back ott.

Keep in mind you can’t win every hand and even titan pros shut it down at some frequency and give up and choose to spend their money in better spots.

Have to bet the turn - checking is really bad. Even if you didn't have the FD you should be betting - force him to fold all his 6x. After checking the turn I think the hand is really over - you can bet but think you get called a lot.

I disagree with everyone. It doesn't matter what's in your range, it doesn't matter what cards you have. We can be nearly 100% certain V doesn't have a J and it really is that simple. People say that low stakes players don't fold, but thats because people make baby bluffs with 50-75% pot bets and players will frequently call small bluffs. It's NL, bet 2-3x pot which I think we have and V is folding everything. It isn't logical, it doesn't make sense, a high-stakes pro would snap you off, but you aren't playing Alan calling station Keating, you're playing Bob, and Bob thinks $200 is a huge bet and Bob didn't even like his hand enough to bet $20 OTR.

If somehow Bob does call your 200%-300% pot with 6x, great. Congratulate him, top off, and next time you have value against Bob, bet huge. (And get Bob's number cause you want to play his home game)

If you had KK, there's no way your value size would be 2x+ when he checks two streets, because you know he would never call. If he's never calling, use that to your advantage and lay a price only a nut would call.

Your opponent's got to be pretty bad for this to work. I'm not saying there isn't a time and place for this play, but even many low stakes opponents will recognize that our line makes no sense betting 2x pot after we checked back turn. It almost has to be a bluff, and I would expect to get hero called a lot.

Now let's say we had made even a small turn bet as an exploitative line. In that case we could similarly rule out trips from his range as he would be raising turn almost always. Then I would be more onboard for a river overbet bluff as our line looks much more credible repping trips + ourselves and I would expect to get hero called much less often.

Good board to bluff, bad player type to do it.

Our opponent already told us they are really bad when he limp-called pre, failed to check-raise on the flop, and then failed to either value bet or bluff the river. That's a line that should be taken around 0% of the time.

The kind of player who is going to hero call us for a large size on the river is the kind of player who would x/r the flop, recognizing that it likely didn't connect with us, and if you are going to have a limp call range, that range probably has a lot of Jx. Or failing that, is going to stab at the river either for thin value or as a bluff when we show weakness.

If we're playing $1/$3, there's like $75 in the pot, throw $200 at it, and yeah, villain is not calling anywhere close to 25% of the time. I'd be surprised if you're called down 5% of the time. Even a ton of low-limit regs are going to talk themselves into folding, convincing themselves they have better spots. Limp call, check call, check, check, hero call a massive overbet is a line that I'm not sure I've ever seen. Have you?

In a passive game, I'd feel worse about it with a small bet on the turn because there is that species of fish that will check-call with QJ or JT here on the flop and the turn, thinking they are trapping. At a reasonably aggressive $2/$5+ you can count on people to raise you for value, but at $1/$2 or $1/$3, there's a species of fish that will win the minimum with their nuts because they will try to trap if they think you are going to bet. That's a species I've gotten bit by in the past jamming when they really should have been capped to find they check called with second or third nuts three times.