NCAA Football 2025
Not sure who will win this year, hopefully Arch goes nuts and UT can kick the door in after making the quarterfinals the
While USC's defense does certainly suck and their lines are concerning against Michigan, I don't think Mich has the WR talent to put up 34 on USC. If Michigan wins it'll be forcing turnovers and a 24-20 type of mucked up game. I think USC wins here 31-20. Michigan's offense isn't good and their QB certainly isn't goat level (yet).
I can definitely see Oregon creaming Indiana at home. Oregon has a tremendous home field advantage and is loaded at the LOS. 38-17 wouldn't surprise me.
Lanning better have Oregon's full attention or it may get ugly early
Everything is fine.
LMAO.
No idea why he would ever want to coach again, let alone at the college level.
No idea, but it’s been a disaster. There’s more details in the thread. It sounds like incompetence all around.
bill and chick were guaranteed how much again?
Even Russell Wilson is shaking his head.
Multi bids:
ACC was in fantastic position a couple of weeks ago. Then FSU and Louisville lost to UVA.
I have Miami at 98% to playoff. Even if they lose 2 games, they'd still own wins over Notre Dame, USF, Florida and Florida State. And, it would be a blessing in disguise that 2 losses probably keeps them out of the ACCG and eliminates the possibility of a third loss.
GT is 3% to win out, 20% to finish with 1 loss. Of that, 8% includes beating UGA, so they'd be 11-1 with wins over UGA and Clemson
Another great irony is that if they finish 11-1 with a win over UGA, that means they lost an ACC game, which is usually next week @ Duke. That then often keeps them out of the ACCG, as the Duke/UVA winner will own the tiebreak (Duke bc of h2h, UVA bc of Duke as the common opponent).
If they finish 11-1 with a loss to UGA (the other 12%), then they are 8-0 in the ACC and locked into the CG, where they are obviously a lock with a win, and have a decent shot with a loss.
On top of that, GT has lots of outs at 10-2. Losing 2 ACC games but beating UGA locks them out of the ACCG, but ends their season on a high note. Depending on how the field shakes out, they have a great chance at being in.
10-2 with losses to UGA and not-Duke means they still have a great shot at the ACCCG. Win that and in, lose that and they're usually out at 10-3.
10-2 with losses to UGA and Duke means they probably aren't in the ACCCG, and are drawing very thin to playoff.
UVA has an incredibly soft schedule ahead and is 14% to win out. That would make them 11-1 with a so/so loss (NC State is mediocre, but it'd be an early season road loss by 4), and wins over FSU and Louisville. and Duke.
Similar situation to SMU last year who played in the ACCCG at 11-1. A close loss might keep them in, a blowout loss would boot them out.
There's also a 17% chance UVA finishes 10-2 while beating Duke, which probably also still keeps them in the ACCCG. Win and in, lose and out.
The 23% chance they finish 10-2 while beating Duke means they are on the fence, I think more often out than in.
FSU wins out and they're in. Tiny chance they make it at 9-3 (get up to 6-2, rise back into the top 10, lose a close one on the road at Clemson, then win 3 in a row finishing with a win @ Florida who themselves have just beaten several of the SEC's best teams. Florida getting hot means more SEC teams are 9-3 and also UF is a more solid win.
SMU and Duke need to win the conference, and have a reasonable shot at doing so.
The real question mark is Louisville, who has an excellent chance to finish 10-2 with zero wins over ranked teams. I think they're almost always out in that scenario, but #sortbywins might slide them in if there is a logjam of 9-3 teams. However, upsetting Miami gives them a clear path to the ACCG
It would be pretty interesting if Tulane, USF or Memphis runs the table then loses in the AACCG
Memphis would be 12-0 with wins over Arkansas, USF, Tulane and Navy
Tulane would be 11-1 with wins over Duke, Northwestern and Memphis, only loss @ Ole Miss
USF would be 11-1 with wins over Florida, Boise, Memphis and UNT, only loss @ Miami
Would they get a bid over a team like 10-2 Louisville, 11-2 UVA, 9-3 LSU?
I also wonder what happens to a team like Oklahoma if they:
win v Michigan
win v Auburn
lose n Texas without Mateer
lose @ South Carolina without Mateer
lose v Ole Miss without Mateer, then he comes back
win @ Tennessee
win @ Alabama
win v Missouri
win v LSU
That would be six big victories and three decent losses without their QB
I think 9-3 OU isn't a LOCK lock, but I have them at > 65% to go
By far the funniest outcome would be Florida ripping off 8 consecutive wins over Texas, @ Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Georgia, @ Kentucky, @ Ole Miss, Tennessee, Florida State...
Then losing in the SECCG.
What would you do with a 4 loss team (one of which was against USF at home!) that had won 8 of 9 against the hardest slate in the country? And would assuredly have been in at 9-3 if they hadn't had to play the SECCG?
Quit teasing me, GB.
Great work as always GB.
Just wanted to say that I find it amusing that a win over Duke is some sort of an accomplishment. They were a door mat for so long that it's hard to wrap my head around the fact that they are good at football.
Looking forward to more of your analysis.
Based on a cursory glance I think Florida should be a bubble team at 8-4 so 9-4 would be in.
But I highly doubt they get much talk either way
I think Oklahoma is a "lock" at 9-3 if any of the losses are without matrer, barring the bubble teams being exceptionally strong.
Based on a cursory glance I think Florida should be a bubble team at 8-4 so 9-4 would be in.
But I highly doubt they get much talk either way
I think Oklahoma is a "lock" at 9-3 if any of the losses are without matrer, barring the bubble teams being exceptionally strong.
I don't know the answer but if I had absolute power I'd say a 9 win Oklahoma or Florida team should always be in. Don't care if they make the title game and lose. 9 wins they should be in. Those schedules are so brutal.
I don't know the answer but if I had absolute power I'd say a 9 win Oklahoma or Florida team should always be in. Don't care if they make the title game and lose. 9 wins they should be in. Those schedules are so brutal.
It depends for each. Like Florida lost head to head to LSU, if they were 9-3 and 10-2 it'd be hard to justify Florida in over LSU. That's just one example. The same thing could happen with Oklahoma and their opponents. The difference with Oklahoma is Mateer is maybe out.
I can't imagine anyone having a better chance at 9-3 than Oklahoma though. Especially if Michigan wins 9 or 10 games.
Never but it's in the rules I believe and we're only in year two of this system
I don't know the answer but if I had absolute power I'd say a 9 win Oklahoma or Florida team should always be in. Don't care if they make the title game and lose. 9 wins they should be in. Those schedules are so brutal.
Based on a cursory glance I think Florida should be a bubble team at 8-4 so 9-4 would be in.
But I highly doubt they get much talk either way
I think Oklahoma is a "lock" at 9-3 if any of the losses are without matrer, barring the bubble teams being exceptionally strong.
The CCG is supposed to not be a penalty, but there are lots of teams who I think would prefer not to make the CCG.
9-3 Florida (1 loss in SEC) would be a lock for the CG, and I really think a fourth loss would be bad for them, whereas I think they are pretty much a lock at 9-3.
If I were 11-1 Virginia, I'd rather take my chances at getting in at 11-1 than having to play Miami in the ACCCG, risk losing by 30 and getting left out.
If I were 11-1 BYU, Iowa State, Arizona State, Utah or Texas Tech, I'd probably rather take my chances as an at-large than play in the B12 title game. At 10-2 for all those teams, I'd probably rather gamble on trying to win the title game.
Like, I think OU's chances at 9-3 as an at-large are better than their chances if they make the SECCG at 9-3 and have a shot at picking up a 4th loss. Thankfully for them, if they are 9-3 that means 3 SEC losses, so they very rarely play the SECCG.
That's an argument in FAVOR of Oklahoma's inclusion if they lose games without Mateer. The committee logic that kept 13-0 FSU out because Travis was injured would be consistent with putting 9-3 OU *IN* if Mateer is healthy and some of those losses occured without him. Of course the committee is ALSO bad at applying consistent logic, so who knows.
Can't believe Tulane nearly lost last night
They outgained ECU 7.4 ypp to 4.6. At halftime they were up 260-63 yards 16 to 4 first downs and were only winning 12-0.
I think they got inside the ECU 10 yard line on 6 different drives, and those drives resulted in 16 total points.
UNT / USF is absolutely huge tonight
UNT plays v USF and @ Navy
UNT skips Tulane and Memphis
USF plays @ UNT, @ Memphis, @ Navy
USF skips Tulane
Tulane only plays @ Memphis, and skips Navy, UNT and USF
Navy plays USF and Memphis and UNT
If UNT wins, their odds of making it shoot up, as they'll have the tiebreak over USF and Memphis/Tulane is guaranteed to produce 1 loser. If they also beat Navy, they're nearly locked in (can afford to lose a game probably)
If UNT loses, they very often finish 3rd and don't make the ACCCG.
USF has a tough path - they really need to scoop all 3 games (and could definitely afford to lose to a rando) to feel confident. If they lose this one, then they have to hope they beat Memphis/Navy then Memphis beats Tulane
Then, I have Washington as a great playoff dark horse. The books have them at +1200/-1800 to playoff but I have them at 12%
Rutgers 81%
@ Michigan 25%
Illinois 74%
@ Wisconsin 75%
Purdue 92%
@ UCLA 81%
Oregon 24%
I have them at 70% at 10-2 (and I am being pretty conservative there imo... true odds might be more like 85%) and 0% at 9-3.
10-2 would involve beating 2/3 of Michigan, Illinois or Oregon, so they'd have 2 ranked wins and 2 totally acceptable losses, which should put them ahead of most 9-3 SEC teams every 10-2 B12 team and every 10-2 ACC team except FSU
beating Michigan/Illinois is good because those teams are the main competition for the B1G's potential 4th slot (Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana are front runners for 1-2-3, Michigan/Illinois/Penn State/Washington/USC are fighting for the 4th (and I do think there is likely to be a 4th). But then it's bad bc Oregon would be the most marquee win and also losing to Oregon ends the season on a loss.
Losing to Mich, you need them to finish 9-3 or worse (62%), which means USC often also beats Mich, which makes it a little more crowded.
Losing to Ill, you need them to finish 9-3 or worse (60%), although there is some chance Washington pips them if they're both 10-2 and Illinois gets housed by OSU and has two absolute blowout losses.
Obviously the ideal 10-2 scenario is scooping ALL THREE of those games, and losing to like 6-6 Rutgers or Wisconsin or something. Losing @ UCLA in the 2nd to last game of the season might be OK too if UCLA rallies to finish 5-7, but obviously that's pretty late
