Opponent's tank-fold-reveal has me wondering what I'm supposed to have in this line.

Sounds like you correctly spotted him as being FOS and so did he. But he also correctly surmised that you're probably not triple-barrelling without something good.

I mean...maybe sort of?

I don't know why he's raising to $15 pre with KJo. No one in this game was folding to that amount pre, and his hand isn't strong enough for him to WANT someone to 3B so he can 4B.

I thought he was FOS pre. I wasn't sure when he called my 3B, but thought he could be calling light because I didn't go very big with my 3B size, and he had position. I definitely thought he was stronger than he actually was when he called flop AND turn. I figured he had to have at least AX, and probably had the Ad in his hand, which was why I was shocked to see him turn over KJo.

Like I said, I got to thinking about it the next day, and realized I couldn't think of any "good" bluffs I could have on that board, so I'd have to be over-playing a value hand like the one I had, or taking a hand with some SDV and turning it into a bluff, or I'd have to be tilt-spewing with air.

If he thought I was tilted, I could see why he had to think about calling. I really struggled to come up with hands that he could beat that would play that way and were NOT total air.

I dunno. At first I thought he was out of his mind to tank as long as he did. But the more I thought about it, the more impressed I was.

Next time just make up the ranks instead of saying some low to mid rank. He probably should call river if he calls turn, but I’d fold turn in his spot.

I think the river is an example of Bart Hanson's 5th Street chicken concept. It looks like he's got a hand that's going to call my river jam when he calls turn, so that should cut down on my bluffing frequency, if I'm a typical low stakes player, and he can thus over-fold.

The hand is interesting to me because we both can have much stronger hands than either of us actually had. I was OOL and got very lucky. I think he played the hand okay until the turn. He could have ejected at that point. If he's not going to call off a river jam, it does seem like his turn call is overly optimistic.

Concur. Also because I think Doc has more aces and offsuit aces here than stated. At least when I'm facing an OOP 3!, I expect to see plenty of aces in that range.

"H" only has 2ndP, 2nd kicker, and no redraw. Why continue when from H's perspective, Doc may be bluffing with the best hand, like some Ax, maybe semi-bluffing Adx, regardless of the flush?

As "H", I can see peeling, & part of me wants to raise flop, as H has plenty of Ax too, but by the turn, I'm just shutting it down. Doc's turn size looks like he's setting up for a sigh-call, 66% river shove, and IP, H would wait until river to jam if they had the nut flush. Can't bluff jam turn, probably face a river jam: fold turn.

Why squeeze so small? I'd go 55-60, but yes, fold pre.

I think BTNs hand is a fold on every street (initial raise is marginal, but don't screw up the size and trigger BB to do things). So it's not like I'd be thinking about my bluffing range when he eventually finds a fold on the river.

Maybe we are supposed to bluff KKd/QQd here ... but lol.

To be fair I probably don't bet turn + shove river with your hand.

So V is definitely not a winning reg. His iso sucks, his KJo defend sucks, and his call down sucks. He's a fish. He might just be a marginal winner out-flopping the absolute mongoloids in this game but thats it. Whatever read you think he has on you, scrap it because who knows what he's thinking at all. Also if you're sitting with anything less than the max buy you look like a rec, so at a minimum he shouldnt be thinking you're a strong player sitting on $375.

As for the hand, your read was right preflop but just because you know he's making a mistake doesnt mean you make an even bigger one 3betting junk. You want to at least have a smidge of blocker potential (Ax or Kx) or something with SDV like 77+. 95s is just off the reservation, you know you're instantly behind when called and can pretty much never make a good hand.

Hard for him to call a shove with 2nd pair on an ace-high flush board. You 3! expecting he was weak, and then expect to get paid off.

His raise of limpers in position with KJo seems OK, but there was a sizing tells which you tried to exploit.

If Villain calls vs 3bet with KJo, what's the use of widening our 3bet range exploitatively to trash no less?

On the whole we check OOP a lot, but this is a 3bet pot in a board favoring our range, so this should be a bet, especially with our holding which has no showdown value unless it binks.

In the OP, you say you are only 3betting AT+ and maybe not KQo, but in the hand you 3b... 95s?

If you are widening your 3b range to attack a weak iso, you are going to have a lot of one diamond hands that can bluff with here. You're telling us that you really fold KQo facing this action, but just decided to go for it 95s??

Also would make it at least $65 pre.

I may be confused.

You agree V should call the river, or you just agree he should fold turn?

I agree I have enough off-suit AX in my range pre that he could fold turn, but if he's folding because I have too much AX in my range, then he should just fold flop. I mean, even if he makes 2P on a K, I could still have him beat with AK, or AA, or KK, or AJ, etc.

So, while I would have folded his hand well before the river, I think I sort of see the logic in considering a call, if he gets to the river the way he does, which would seem to suggest he thinks I have too many bluffs in my range.

As for my squeeze size - part of it was that I wasn't starting out very deep. But mostly it was because I thought his raise size could be an indication he was FOS, in which case he's just folding to my 3B, even to a 3X size, or he was deliberately raising small hoping to induce so he could 4B, in which case I'd just fold.

Really? You're not barreling the turn when you bink after semi-bluffing the flop? What's your plan for the river? Just check-call?

He can be a winning reg and still make mistakes. We all do.

His ISO with KJ on the BTN over a couple limps from fish seems fine to me (ETA - other than the sizing being too small, which I can't explain). If he's able to see that his sizing may have induced a light 3B from me, then his defend is fine. When we're HU and he's IP, I think his flop call is okay.

The turn is where things get interesting. If he's good enough to figure out I'm unlikely to take the line I did with the nuts or marginal value, then his hand becomes a reasonable bluff-catcher, when he blocks AK, AJ, and JJ.

As for my starting stack - I was on my second buy-in, and he'd just seen me lose a big pot after my opponent sucked out. There wasn't any reason for him to think I was a weak player simply based on my starting stack size in this hand.

I mean...it's not like I knew he had KJo.

I think my 3B'ing range from the BB is going to be somewhat polar. Not that it needs to include 95s. It doesn't, obviously. But I saw an opportunity to 3B light and steal the dead money in the pot when he raised to a suspiciously small size.

My 3B range in the BB is going to be polar, because I can otherwise defend the BB pretty wide. I'd 3B AT+ and A5s, and balance with some bluffs, which would usually be better candidates than 95s.

KQo is too in-between, and so I'd mostly just flat with it, not fold it. But, for the sake of argument, if I were to 3B KQo pre, I think I'd mostly be checking the turn, with plans to fold if he bets big, and probably only call a small bet if I have the Kd in my hand. But even then, without a draw to the nuts, I'd mostly c-bet the flop and give up on the turn with KQo, with or without a diamond.

I was only starting the hand with $375. The only reason I 3B was I thought his $15 open over 2 limps was FOS. If I'm right, he should mostly fold, even to a smaller 3B size, when I'm 3B'ing out of the BB, and could otherwise just flat call. I don't need to make it $65, because I'm just torching either way if he actually calls.

this wasnt just a simple mistake, it's indicative that he has fundamental mistakes in his game overall. I'd be totally on board if he did this with K5s and made it 60+ to actually isolate someone. Instead he might as well have just minraised because all his sizing does is build a multiway pot.

i really dont think anyone is deliberately making a bad iso in the hopes to induce you to steal, and if he glanced to his left and saw you reaching for chips before he acted and predicted you would do this then he would just 4bet pre. There's no sense in trying to play KJo postflop vs an airball range (that he's just guessing at) and would be better served to use HIS blockers and resteal from you. But I digress.

not trying to attack you, all I'm saying is who cares if you get stacked, if you dont buyin full people tend to notice.

With the benefit of hindsight and knowing what he had, we can debate what he thought he was doing pre.

I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt that he may have lost focus temporarily, leading to a mis-click. Like, maybe he didn't see there were two limpers, and thought he was just opening over a single limp, or maybe he noticed one or both of the limpers was starting short-stacked. I'm also willing to accept he may have been trying to "split the baby" by raising to a size that would push the blinds out of the pot but not bloat the pot to the point that he'd have a hard time navigating a low SPR situation post against somewhat short-stacked opponents.

Obviously, when we know he has KJo, I don't think he was hoping to induce. But I didn't know that pre. I have seen low-stakes players get creative with their raise sizing when they know there are players capable of 3B'ing still to act. So it seemed at least possible he was raising small to induce.

And, yes, obviously if he was hoping to induce, he'd have 4B, but clearly that wasn't what he was doing. But, in game, I didn't think that was the most likely scenario. I thought his raise size was most likely just an indication of a playable hand that wasn't premium. It could have been J9s or 66 for all I knew.

When he opens to $15 and I only 3B to $45, he might think I'm FOS for the same reasons I thought he was FOS. So, in that scenario, I think it's debatable whether KJo is better as a 4B or as a flat call, but I'd lean towards flatting, if only because he's going to hate life if he 4B's and I jam on him. If someone posted this hand from his perspective, and he 4B, everyone would say he was just torching.

I don't think you're attacking me. I also don't think he's forming judgments about me based on my stack size, rather than forming a judgment based on his actual observations of how I actually play.

Like, if you had 10-12 hours playing against someone, and you just sat down at their table, and you see they have over $650 in a $500 max buy-in game, and then you see them lose a big pot when they flop trips and their opponent sucks out to make a straight, after they got their money in good, are you really going to change your opinion of them, based solely on their stack size after that hand, rather than how you've actually seen them play up to that point?

I don't think preflop is that bad. You almost always have the worst hand and are OOP. However, your range is uncapped, and included a lot of JJ+/AK. Villain's range is capped by his small "iso" sizing and from flat calling the 3! button versus blind.

I think he (tried to denote his action via the "H" vs regular H) should fold turn to your action. I think you've more aces than you stated previously in your 3! range. While you're not Banana, I think you're 3!'ing more aces vs a FOS BU small raise over limpers, than merely calling, and while I don't think you're going as wide as a solver might (despite what you actually raised with, lol), you've more than like ATo/A9s or what you stated. Your villain has second pair, no redraw, and you could easily be bluffing with the flush ace, which still beats him. So I agreed with Omaha that "H" really needed to eject by turn.

Aside, reading the Omaha forum here, they really take pains to set up geometric SPR sizing in their play. I might be MUBsy, but I don't think we often in the LLNL forum, take as much care to recognize when a V is leading us down the B33/B60, setting up the B75, "Oh poop, I have to call this, don't I? Damn...,"primrose path. The Omaha forum is very aware of those things.

(Let's see, what else did you say...) i see your point about folding flop. But, and this was said i another thread, our Vs are used to floating widely now. You have other things besides Aces, and pairs are hard to make. Currently (this may be different for many of you, and I don't know what a solver does mostly) they float wide vs x-raise, or just raise with middle pair. I.e., they don't yet demonstrate/bluff they have something, but then call it a day after one act of aggression. So, TL;DR, they float flop way wider than they should.

On the turn, the flush card and your bet just adds to the, "I'm f@*@ed." It further devalues their pair. I disagree with calling turn = must call river. I haven't gone back to look at stacks, but I don't think commitment was hit yet.

I apologize in advance for not explaining my logic more clearly. Thanks for the threads. They're fun to read.

Quoting, because I love this. Yes, position, but so many steal/resteal hands seem like they would play so much better with a resteal vs a call, in an LL, shorter staked environment where everyone is expecting DOOM! with a 4!

How much does flat-calling the blind, IP, when it closes the action, isn't MW, and has insufficient odds for setmining, capping their range? Change any of those, and yep, agreeing.

Pre- I'm not going to criticize. You read a situation, the read was partially wrong, time to make lemonade.

Flop- Can get lots of folds, have equity just in case.

Turn- why so small? You don't have Ad or Kd, he could. Adx is calling anything, Any 2 broadway with one d is calling anything, if he has a made higher flush we're felted anyway. I think you can seriously consider jamming. It's 2x pot but looks suspicious and he has a few inelastic single diamond hands, slow played sets, 2p. He could even talk himself into hero calling with KJ thinking you were jamming with KdQx or something. I think at least big $100, and maybe just go absurd and hope you rep gets you paid.

On the river, your line looks suspicious, but it's really hard to find bluffs. The A kills it, if the flop was Q high, then you could be barreling off with any naked Ad. Are you doing that with Kd? Probably not. Maybe KQ with one diamond is a bluff that could take this line. Maybe a frisky low pp 22-77 with one d would be a reasonable bluffing candidate but it feels like this line in general would be a terrible bluff running into brick walls. If V had Ad, he's had no reason to raise all along. So it isn't clear what your value is, but if you're bluffing on this river it's a terrible bluff.

sizing is conceptual error pre imo - would go 65-70? when you're in bb youre at least supposed to be polarized as opposed to linear (your hand choice is kind of polar candidate) so you want to size bigger. your size makes more sense from the sb if you're playing 3b or fold - linear. is debatable what we actually want to flat here given 5x and people behind so would likely still just play linear strat and copy like co open btn facing sb action (basically will flat axss and pairs iirc and not much else) and then 3b whatever that 3b range looks like. regardless though you lay him way too good of a price when you make it 45.

rest of the thread is still 5th level thinking while playing random at 1/3 lol

to expand on this really quickly i dont think you're going to be able to play a polar strat from the bb here when he makes it 15 and you have 2 people behind you - i just cant imagine you're going to be able to flat too many hands profitably, and if thats the case you're likely much better off 3betting something like KJ as opposed to 95ss both from blocker / equity standpoint. the implication to me of 3betting 95ss here is either you're 3betting like 20+% of hands or you're making a ton of likely losing flats or you're just choosing objectively worse candidates for 3betting range for no real point (board coverage is not a thing really at spr 3.5 or w/e)

if exploit is i am going to 3bet everything because he is weak i would just size up the 3bet to make him fold all of the trash

kind of like b10 otf