To hero or not to hero? That is the question...

Don't hero, as played. V's range has a ton of value Jx, Tx that beats you as he knows you don't have Jx given the check back on the flop. Lots of missed draws, but some 79/Q9 for value too. In an $11, I just don't think there are enough missed draws that bet turn and jam river. So I just think that without a read on V, it's a negative EV call. The fact that you can't win a bounty also is a factor towards folding. On the flip side, V can win your bounty and is incentivized to shove his nutted hands on the river.

BTW, I think if you are going to take a sticky line here, you're better offer c-betting the flop as you uncap your range, and as a result V will have a more difficult time finding bluffs. The flop is soaking wet, so you will need to bet all of your strong Js and better at 19 bbs eff.

Personally, I think I x back flop and fold turn (especially to 2/3 pot bet), as board smashes V's BB defend range.

Yeah I think turn is likely a fold. We're better off calling with draws that will connect on various run-outs. Those hands also sometimes will make a pair on the river that can potentially hero call.

I also agree that if we want to get sticky with this hand it's better to put it into our flop "bluff" range. That might not be solver approved as it's easy to over bluff on this board texture if you don't control your bluff combos somehow. That being said it plays pretty well against humans because when you hit an ace or three it often looks like all the draws missed, so your opponent will tend to hero call more and pay off.

As played on the river I probably still fold, but it's possible they could be over bluffing. Pairing the top card reduces value combos significantly and every draw missed. The fact that we're still not sure what to do against the river bet highlights why we should likely just fold turn.

I would fold turn, but agree hero probably should cbet flop. Even if the turn call will make bb check river we will be behind most of his betting range ott and it doesn't feel appealing to bluff catch a bet like this on the river on this board

Just bet the flop - anything that would check/jam the flop has good equity vs you anyways and you need protection. So on the river the board ran out as good as possible - every draw missed, Jack paired reducing combos. My only concern is he bet the turn somewhat large - either way I would call here.

I would bet flop for all the reasons people stated and to fold out low-equity trash that still has six outs against you.

You've put yourself in one of the situations you least want to be in in poker - calling large bets with a capped range.

Yeah, and what I want to add to this specifically is that villain's turn bet size seems specifically designed to set up a river shove.

Whether to check back or bet bottom pair depends on the specific board. Something like JT8 I'd be more inclined to check back - it's a board where we would more often be inclined to pot control, but also a board where checking won't risk a free card pulling random junk ahead of our top pair. Here, getting hands like 75o to fold the flop is a solid win for us.

Similarly, I might check back if there was a heart on board, since we can turn much more equity with a flush draw too.

Last, I'd bet more often the more often I expected to get called by ace high, so the times I make aces up I have the chance to win a big pot.

I have mixed feelings about a flop cbet. In general HU and in position I cbet this type of flop 100% of the time. However here we have a shortish stack problem. If the turn is a Q/K/A/J/T I typically would bet the turn. But given our stack I don't like the idea of betting two streets with such a small pair. And because the board has so many draws I would guess Villain won't fold to a turn bet if they call the flop.

The other thing I don't like about the cbet here is that if an A comes it might not be a good card for us.

So if I was going to cbet here it would be just to win the pot on the flop. If called I would give up unless we improve.

The turn does complete two straight draws (Q9 & 97) so I think I just let it go. Also Villain can have two pair as well.

The only way I call the river bet is if we have seen Villain overbluff a lot. It is a polarized pot sized bet. In this case Villain would need to be bluffing over 33% of the time for this to be +EV. But the other issue is that in a bounty tournament Villain is likely under bluffing because there is value in winning a bounty.

GWF, does the bet/check mix for A3s on the flop differentiate by suits?

Folding turn to a bet of that size makes a lot of sense; even if villain has a draw, you're going to be at a total loss on the river unless another 3 hits (and if it's the 3d, that may not be good for you). And with the board as is, the villain could bet 9x on the turn and we have no idea what his side card is or if it paired if the river is a blank.

I highlighted it so you can see on the left side of the flop screenshot. Solver is betting almost 90% with A3 diamonds (makes sense it's betting more with the pair plus flush draw), but is still betting 83% with A3 spades and A3 hearts bottom pair.

Re: Turn: Yeah, also we should have so many various draws that also potentially have additional pair outs. Many of those types of hands probably have similar raw equity to our hand but more and cleaner outs. So we've got plenty of better combos to defend with vs the turn bet. It goes to show that it's important to check back some flop draws or it will be difficult to defend enough against turn bets after we check flop.

Also I should mention I've seen scenarios where a massive flop overbet jam is used a fair amount on similar JTx flops, but I didn't allow for that in my sim. That could change a lot if some of the stronger draws and Jx were jamming flop.

I'm not sure if that is a thing button vs BB in this exact scenario though.

Where I most commonly see that kind of overbet jam on JTx is with AQ/AK where the SPR is low enough for a check-jam. Guessing we're indifferent to calling the check-jamming range because KQ is going to be in it (and on a board like this, maybe the nut flush draw, although our equity is not as good there), so we just strike first.

Interesting, thanks. Yes I felt there were so many missed draws here that villain can have a large amount of bluffs on this river. I will have some Jx after checking back flop - some of my weakest top pair hands, to protect the check back range (along with some other hands, like 99). I checked with a solver and you're right that it's a minus EV call on the turn, but my feeling was that after checking back flop and incentivizing villain to bluff, I need to get sticky. Note that it's a mystery bounty, so bounties were not yet in play.

The problem I have with cbetting this flop with this hand is that if villain doesn't fold (and he's not as likely to on this wet board) then he either raises flop, which puts me in a really bad spot, or he simply calls - and even if the turn is a blank, I still have a weak hand. He's probably going to check turn to me (and if he bets - again, I'm in a very tough spot) and I then have to either bet again on turn, which I have a really hard time believing can be correct with this hand, or check back and likely face a large river bet - and decide whether to call or not. In other words, I just don't see the hand proceeding well after cbetting the flop and I'm much more comfortable with checking back to keep the pot size small, and bluff-catching if he bets to a reasonable size and all the draws miss. That said, solver confirmed I should fold turn, and most people on the thread seem to agree.

Yes, solver confirmed turn should be a fold - I just have a hard time letting pairs go after I have incentivized my opponent to bluff - I feel I usually have to call at least one bet in those situations.

When ranges are wide I often prefer putting bottom pair in my check back bluff-catching range. We're pretty shallow, and it's a disaster to get check-raised.

Interestingly, PIO was folding most of the time with my combo on the turn but, if it did call turn, it called river as well:

although of course it's only very very slightly plus EV and if one were to simplify the solver output, it's probably fine to make this a fold.

Yes most people are saying fold turn. I don't like cbetting flop with this combo for the reasons detailed above. I would have been very happy if he had checked river; I could have just checked back and taken my showdown value - that was my goal from the flop, to get to showdown as cheaply as possible. There are so many missed draws on this river that I felt villain may well be overbluffing, especially when the river paired the top pair from the flop, reducing villain's value combos.

Yeah, I "need protection", but my hand is not strong enough to bet imo. So I felt the best option was to check back and try and get to showdown cheaply.

Sure, I've indicated above why I don't believe betting flop with this combo is optimal. I agree calling large bets with a capped range is an unplesant situation, but I feel that sometimes playing your range correctlly results in such situations, and I am comfortable calling down here vs aggressive opponents if the draws miss.

Yeah, I felt pot-controlling was the right move with this combo on this board, and with the BTN vs BB dynamic where ranges are very wide. I also don't block any of the backdoor flush combos that are likely to call a flop cbet. In answer to your third point, I don't think that many ace-high hands are going to call a bet on this flop - it is very wet and he has a whole load of other stuff he can call with to reach MDF.

Yes, agreed. I don't think this is a range bet board - if it had been a much drier board, then I would have been cbetting a lot more. As you indicated, the short stack setup means that he can get all-in very easily on the flop - he can check-jam many combos, which puts my combo in a terrible situation if I cbet. Ranges are wide and he's much more likely to attack a cbet than he would be vs an UTG player, etc. I totally agree that I cannot bet two streets with my hand. There are many players out there who will cbet close to 100%, then bet the turn far too wide in order to ensure they can check back river and get to showdown with their hand. The obvious issue with doing that with hands like bottom pair is that when you get called twice you are usually behind and just inflating the pot for a middle-strength hand that beats you. So in my view this hand should be checking back flop and bluff-catching on clean runouts. That said, you're right that the river bet is large, and villain needs to have a large amount of bluffs in order to make a call plus EV for my hand - but I mean, look at that board, he definitely does have a large amount of bluffs. Note that bounties were not yet available to win in the tourney - it was a mystery bounty and late reg was still open.

Awesome, thanks for taking a look.

Correct, bounties were not in play when this hand was played.

Interesting option to jam pre - hadn't considered that. For me 20bbs is too much of a stack to open rip pre - on the button 15bbs is usually my max for that.

I had a look with PIO and it confirmed what you said for the flop - my hand can either cbet or check back, and the EV is pretty close between those options:

From a "human" perspective, I strongly prefer checking back.

On the turn, PIO agrees with your analysis that I should fold:

But, as indicated above, I have a hard time doing that after incentivizing my opponent to bluff (with the flop check back).

PIO indicated that if A3s does get to the river, it should be calling, but the EV won is miniscule - around 1% of the pot:

So if we were to simplify this output, I'm sure it's fine to fold those combos.

I only had about half an hour playing with villain at the time the hand was played, and no notaable reads in either direction. I know this might sound ridiculous, but he was Brazilian, and I'm more inclined to give them action, as I've seen how aggro and creatively they play on Stars in general. I capped my range twice with the flop check back and turn call, and the river was a blank, so of course that is a big green light to go ham to any redline player.

Sure, and these are some of the issues we face with the weakest parts of our range. I feel I can't fold to the turn bet after checking back flop with bottom pair. I'm praying he checks river of course, so I can check back - but when he jams, that's when I have a real decision to make. However, if all the draws miss, I have a clear bluf-catcher, especially when the river pairs the top pair from the flop, reducing his value combos.

turn snapfold, not a bluff in a million years. flop cbet.

only aggrofish would bluff here (possible in a 11$ mystery), but you've had no reads.

considering all variables,

after you check flop, he's like "haha, he must have 45hearts, I'll bomb pot to make him fold"

no, of course not, you're not checking air except you're fish (and then he'd not need to bluff pot), and 8 on turn connects fantastically with your flop checkback range that contains Q9off, 89off, T8off, ...

yeah actually everything connects here except for some ace highs.

but even without that consideration, it's not the situation and tourney to bluff yolo when opps being capped is so secondary to opps being calling stations, especially when you'd kind of seem to have many bluffs (when in reality there are ZERO)

and yeah, maybe if you had Q9off best play vs his big sizing on turn would be to jam, but calling doesn't cap you - opp doesn't know what you're thinking and how you'd play Q9off. it's a 11$ mystery, who fucking knows how to play that well?