To hero or not to hero? That is the question...

A few things in response to your different thoughts Telemakus.

I think we're trained to think of bottom pair as a showdown value hand button vs BB, which is generally true but really it's much weaker than average on this board. When we bet flop here it is kind of like a weak draw with a tiny bit of showdown value, similar to betting a weak ace high with a gutshot. Also betting keeps our options open so depending on the runout we can sometimes turn it into a multi street bluff and sometimes try to show it down later in the hand. We have a pretty substantial range advantage so they can't get too out of line check raising.

Re: Turn: You mentioned calling turn and folding when the river gets there, but the problem is that we're still going to get bluffed and be left guessing a lot on the river. For example when either of the two flush draws complete they're going to bet both when they have it and when they have air. We won't know which is which. Or they could have a straight draw that comes in when the flush draws both miss and we end up paying them off. We're just in an impossible position on almost all rivers. The non-flush-completing jack is basically the best possible river for our hand (short of non flush 3 and maybe ace), and we're still left guessing on the river with the prospect of a break even call.

When the stacks are this shallow-- enough so that villain can bet/bet turn/river and still put you all-in-- then you don't really have the ability to control the pot by checking back. Indeed, giving up the betting lead might be the worst pot-control decision, whereas if you b25 and get called you can control the sizing again on the turn, or check back and re-evaluate on the river.

But, as indicated above, I have a hard time doing that after incentivizing my opponent to bluff (with the flop check back).

Sure you add some bluffs to the range he activates on the turn by checking back, but I think A3 is a poor choice for this strat. It’s just not strong enough.

His entire range consists of hands that call pre in BB but don’t shove (into 2bb btn open from short 20bb stack). So we can discount Ax to Qx pretty heavily and land with a ton of Jx Tx in the range.

Just don’t see the point in checking back, and I would cbet here 100% after connecting - uncapping range for future streets and uncomplicating future decisions which is a vastly underrated concept

I can see checking back is a valid mix but it’s to pot control not to trap - don’t confuse them.

Think Tx is a far more interesting check back which PIO seems to agree with - especially on a J river.

should jam pre. octopi poker and peak gto said jam pre with 20 bb idk

Yeah the preflop discussion is underrated. Honestly up to now the only hands I've been jamming from the button with 20 BB are the small pocket pairs. I had previously decided that bet-folding the small suited aces was a good exploitative adjustment as opponents usually didn't shove quite as wide as GTO. That has actually been changing though and recently people seem to have gotten super aggro, sometimes actually shoving wider than GTO. That could be a good exploitative adjustment on their part as people do tend to bet-fold too much.

Anyway I'm going to start making these jams with the small Axs and see how it goes. When I have tried shoving them in the past it seemed like I always just got snapped off by pocket pairs and better Ax that had me crushed, but it still might be the highest EV play with the A blocker and ensuring that you realize 100% of your equity.

Also, Telemakus I noticed the pre flop ranges you used in your PIO sim were quite a bit different than mine. Where did you get those? Are you really opening that wide from 20 BB when you're going to get jammed on a lot? Also I definitely think at a minimum I would be shoving the smallest pocket pairs.

what's going on here, when you check, is that your opps often think

"oh, he must be not strong, let's go get value... and maybe we can make it look bluffy"

😉

we're opening offsuit aces, so I hope suited ones will perform even better.

shoving feels bad.

if I had reads on opps being aggressive Id shove, or at least pretty solid (highstakes regs), then Id be open for playing more in line with gto recommendations.

feel like gto is trolling us a bit with these shoves, you gotta be really good turning wheels for it to be worthwhile.

it goes on your nerves when any time you shove they have A8off or 55 and call.

Im for minraising suited wheelaces, and believe it has more EV in almost any field.

like what small blind is gonna shove 20 bigs with KToff, QToff, JToff, any pair and any aceX vs your button open?

I think shoving is okay when you're for example deep in an mtt and surrounded by solid players who will properly attack your open (even though it’s quite hard for them to attack too loose),

but these players might call your shove even tighter than gto recommends in such a scenario - so pretty much just leveraging pure aggression and not leaving oneself open for counteraggression.

we may probably go as wide as shoving all suited aces except for the ones we want to induce with.

if there are no obstacles to realize play, then play > shove - especially live

I'm thinking part of the advantage of shoving small suited aces is to get our opponents to fold dominating hands. Like if we shove A2s we're going to get folds from A3-A7o. If we minraise, those same hands might rejam and get us to fold. Against better opponents we're also going to get called by some hands we're ahead of like Broadway type hands.

It does feel pretty sick to shove A2s and just get snapped off by 55 and be out though.

The problem I've been running into in my games is that when I open in late position there are players who rejam with nonsense like suited connectors or K4s or whatever.

In that case I think it's very important not to bet-fold too much. Maybe shoving weak suited aces is better or possibly it might be better just to avoid the variance with a hand like A2s and open fold it against players we expect to jam extremely aggressively over our minraise?

Okay so my question in response to that would be: which hands are checking back and then calling down if you decide to bet A3s on the flop/turn in into a bluff? For me anyway this is clearly a middle strength hand that doesnt want to inflate the pot, there are much weaker and more apt hands in the button range to use as bluffs.

My feeling on the river is that, if the obvious draws miss, I have a bluff catcher that is probably a plus EV call as long as he doesnt bet huge.

Also, with ranges so wide and stacks so shallow and the general player pool cbetting too much in BTN vs BB, I am concerned with betting this hand and getting jammed on. I know that I would have a lot of check raises in this setup.

Okay, thanks for the input. What hands aside from some Tx would you consider checking back?

I agree it's not ideal to cap my range, but a least as I see it, doing so does not make things overly "complicated". I simply have a bluff catcher and will call down some of the time depending on the runout and betsizes used.

Yes, absolutely I am pot controlling and not trapping with the flop check back.

Yeah I'm sure that's solver approved but for me 20bbs is too much to jam from button. I don't believe that high variance plays are the best way to beat bad players.

Yes I am opening approximately that wide. I would be jamming small pairs from 15bbs and lower.

***REVEAL***

I flicked in the call and the opponent had 9♠6♦ for a turned and missed open ender. I liked my combo as a bluff catcher because I've incentivized him to bluff with the flop check back, both flush draws missed, I'm not blocking either flush draw, and the river significantly reduced his value combos.

over the whole field, there are also many players who are much tighter with their reshoves in such scenarios

more and lower suited kings can be sb vs btn 3bets with larger stacks, but also become reshoves in the 10 - 15 big blind range.

with such shorter stacks, we'd feel fine to openshove our suited wheelaces from the button, which would also have an EV twice as high (vs optimal calling strats), and we would'nt run into such wide reshoving ranges

The solver has us checking back our worst Jx and some Tx along with some draws.

On the turn to simplify I would call with Tx, Jx, most 8x that turned a pair, and pretty much any draws including gutshots.

A lot of our river hero calls will be hands that started as some sort of draw then hit a pair on the turn or river. On this particular river we could even consider hero calling with ace high.

You said with A3 you could call river when obvious draws miss, but you realize well over half the deck completes some sort of obvious draw? There are two flush draws and various straight draws.

Anyway I actually don't mind the hero call on the river. I still think the turn call is a mistake though, for the reasons outlined in my previous post. Also the solver has the turn call losing significant EV.

Limping the button at this stack depth actually seems like a good option against hyper-aggressive reshovers. If they're that aggressive it could make sense to limp most of your range so you have limp-calls, limp-folds and limp-jams. I've seen some high stakes players doing this and it makes sense, especially if you think you have a post flop edge. You want to avoid flipping quarters to determine who wins.

Yeah, your points do make sense, thanks.

I do realise a lot of draws can come in on the river - if they do, then I'm okay with letting my hand go facing large bets.

Yes, the solvers have shown the turn call is minus EV, but - if we get to the river with this combo, then we should call. So I guess I didn't get the hand totally wrong, lol.

Hi mate

Without looking - Tx, weaker Jx, 99-

and that seems to be mostly correct based on GWFs flop chart although betting is fine too except with the weaker Jx, a difference worth noting

Also preflop shove A3s with 20bb is important

But checking back A3 here does lead to a very complicated situation. I could kind of write an essay on this, but think deeply about range advantage before and after your check back, ranges heading into flop, stack sizes, equity denial. You make it so hard for yourself when you check this back.

In short, A3s is a poor candidate for a bluff catcher.

Okay interesting, thanks. I would honestly love to hear this "essay" that you mentioned on checking back A3 on the flop, please do elaborate. I totally understand that it caps my range and results in a range disadvantage if villain starts betting on the turn. But I mean - how often is he actually going to do that? Sometimes the hand is just going to check down too, and I will win often when it does. I totally agree about equity denial - huge part of the game for sure. But it also really sucks to bet this hand on the flop and get raised/jammed on. It's certainly uncomfortable to check this back and face aggression on turn and river, but I just felt that it wasn't the right hand to cbet with, given that it's a "middle strength" hand that doesn't want to inflate the pot - but I guess you're viewing it as a bluff if you decide to bet it from the flop?

Once we get to the river A♥3♥ must be a good bluff catcher because it doesn't block the two flush draws that can start betting on the turn and bluff river right?

Sure happy to elaborate, but might break it down into parts rather than write an essay.
😃

First step:

When we bet flop as PFR not only do we uncap our range, we also retain the betting initiative for future streets.

If we bet flop, then opponent may fold (great outcome). But if they call they almost always check turn (also a good outcome).

An important consideration here is that we get to choose the first sizing if we bet. With a 20bb stack that can be a reasonably small bet. With a small size, we can deny equity to random overcards to the 3. It also appears like we may be inducing.

If we check and let V choose the first sizing (on the turn) then we hand over control and allow them to size that first bet for a river shove. That’s a bad outcome.

Let me know if any discussion points out of above before I continue.

Sure, I understand that betting keeps our range uncapped and retains the betting initiative. If the opponent folds, it's a great outcome - but what if they raise?

When we bet the flop with this hand, it's as a bluff, right? What should we do with this hand if villain calls and the turn is a blank?

Yes I do see what you mean with regard to the benefit of us betting flop and being able to use a small size, resulting in our facing a smaller bet on the river if we check the turn, compared to checking flop and then letting villain dictate the size for turn and river.

C-betting consistently with flops that hit our raising range and don't favor the BB's calling range is a bluff here. But because it is balanced (along with semi bluffs like flush and/or straight draws and PP's) it doesn't look like a bluff. It can look consistent.

Yes we won't get small PP's to fold necessarily because we could have AK/AQ/KQ. But in theory if we bet the turn they will fold. Tricky on this hand because betting the turn with our stack size and when the 8 comes is probably not what we will do.

Your call here was outstanding given the results but we likely win the hand on the flop if we c-bet. And if for whatever reason Villain calls and we check back the turn, the river call will be easier as their bluff % will likely be high given we look like we don't have anything.

Pretty good catcher. You unblock all bluffs, you gotta call something, you dont have much else.