Am I an idiot or is this a cooler?
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software
NL Holdem 0.05(BB)
BTN ($15.22) [VPIP: 42.5% | PFR: 25.8% | AGG: 26.8% | Hands: 2800]
SB ($5) [VPIP: 24% | PFR: 11% | AGG: 25.9% | Hands: 10624]
BB ($18.77) [VPIP: 26.5% | PFR: 19% | AGG: 30.8% | Hands: 719]
HERO ($5) [VPIP: 16.6% | PFR: 11.2% | AGG: 30.8% | Flop Agg: 35.8% | Turn Agg: 28.1% | River Agg: 28.9% | 3Bet: 4.2% | 4Bet: 6.1% | Hands: 26072]
HJ ($5) [VPIP: 22.4% | PFR: 16.7% | AGG: 59.6% | Flop Agg: 70.4% | Turn Agg: 65.4% | River Agg: 44.2% | 3Bet: 7.4% | Fold to 3Bet: 37.7% | 4Bet: 5.5% | Hands: 2633]
CO ($5.53) [VPIP: 46.9% | PFR: 23.4% | AGG: 21.5% | Hands: 12433]
Dealt to Hero: Q♥ A♥
HERO Raises To $0.15, HJ Raises To $0.50, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Folds, HERO Calls $0.35
Hero SPR on Flop: [4.21 effective]
Flop ($1.07): A♠ A♦ 8♣
HERO Checks, HJ Bets $0.55 (Rem. Stack: $3.95), HERO Calls $0.55 (Rem. Stack: $3.95)
Turn ($2.17): A♠ A♦ 8♣ 9♣
HERO Checks, HJ Bets $3.95 (allin), HERO Calls $3.95 (allin)
River ($10.07): A♠ A♦ 8♣ 9♣ 6♦
Spoiler
HJ shows: 9♠ 9♥
HJ wins: $9.67
10 Replies
I prefer donking on the turn. Dry flop with no broadway on the turn means villain now has a lot of air they're supposed to barrel with, to go along with their trillion trips. But they likely won't, so their bets will be way too stong.
As played, I still call. Could be winning against AJ, could be splitting against AQ, still live-ish against AK if the river double pairs. And frankly villain's sizing looks like some 'folding out draws' nonsense. Could be up against A5 for all you know.
Knowing the result it's a call. Not knowing the result you can toss a coin and ask your variance chassis how strong it's feeling today.
It's never KK-JJ. This is AQ+. Assuming it's AJ or AT is wishful thinking imo. The only way to reach the needed equity to make the call is if villain is balanced and also does this with some flushdraws. I think that's not the case, therefore, I would fold.
Flop and turn are played fine. You crush almost everything except the few full houses. Just unlucky, nothing to change.
As for the title question, it can be both; those aren’t mutually exclusive 😀
Seriously though, yeah it’s a tough hand to get away from and I’m not sure you expect to see 99 there a lot. What about a check raise otf though? At that point villain should have a lot of combos in his range that we beat. He can’t have AA, so AK is the only combo that beats us at that point.
