do people fold to this river bet?
one loose limper, I raise As9s CO, bb calls limper calls
flop JJ6 rainbow, I bet 1/3 pot, bb folds limper calls
turn K giv
im now thinking that betting turn small and the overbetting river is a sweet line, get that extra $30-40 on the turn from his garbage.
Our opponent already told us they are really bad when he limp-called pre, failed to check-raise on the flop, and then failed to either value bet or bluff the river. That's a line that should be taken around 0% of the time. The kind of player who is going to hero call us for a large size on the river is the kind of player who would x/r the flop, recognizing that it likely didn't
If they are correct that by checking you will push because you believe they are capped they are maximizing their win vs you not minimizing it.
If they are correct that by checking you will push because you believe they are capped they are maximizing their win vs you not minimizing it.
That's my point about why the small bet/small bet/jam isn't always optimal vs. bet/check/jam because they might check call three times, but when you check the turn apparently giving up, even the super-trappers tend to value bet. In this scenario, OP set up a great spot for a big overbet bluff imo, and checking the turn might be the essential move to ensure the greenlight to blast.
In my experience, an active game where everyone has $1k+ the small bet/small bet/huge bet line works because Vs will x/r their strong stuff frequently enough their range is sufficiently weak by river to bluff. In smaller passive games, I think throwing in the turn check works better to clear out the strong stuff. Based on the line in OP, at least against this opponent we are clearly in the small passive category.
Our opponent already told us they are really bad when he limp-called pre, failed to check-raise on the flop, and then failed to either value bet or bluff the river. That's a line that should be taken around 0% of the time. The kind of player who is going to hero call us for a large size on the river is the kind of player who would x/r the flop, recognizing that it likely didn't
Yeah it's likely game and opponent dependent. The OP didn't specify what the stakes were, but I could see your approach working against someone like a 1/2 opponent who is just level 1 thinking and purely playing the strength of their own hand.
For context when I said I didn't think it would work I'm thinking more about 2/5 villains. Even at 2/5 I agree they'll almost never have a jack but I would expect them to hero call a lot with any pair. Also I live in S Florida where a lot of the recreationals are just rich AF and almost refuse to fold, so that might be coloring my perspective.
im now thinking that betting turn small and the overbetting river is a sweet line, get that extra $30-40 on the turn from his garbage.
It's a pretty effective exploitative line against opponent types who will always give away the strength of their hand by raising the stronger parts of their range.
You can also use the first part of the line with some very thin value hands. Just bet small flop, bet small turn and check back river. You can get value out of some hands that should technically be playing more for showdown value, and even when you're beat it minimizes your losses as less money goes in with your small turn bet compared to if you checked back turn and called a bigger bet on the river. The biggest downside is sometimes passive opponents will call flop, call turn, then make a huge donk bet on the river. It happens more often than you would think, and it's not always easy to distinguish whether it's a desperation bluff or a value bet.
im now thinking that betting turn small and the overbetting river is a sweet line, get that extra $30-40 on the turn from his garbage.
I would only use an overbet against fish on the broken lines, and probably not at all on a board with a paired broadway. They are not going to be elastic enough and they are slowplaying enough that you're allowing their MDF to lower to the level of their continuation frequency.
In the course of praising your thought process, I probably should have pointed out that the goal of the BXB isn't really to fold out pairs, especially 6x. This player's greatest weakness is having an absolute garbage range pre, with knock-on effects on every proceeding street. EG: you bet the flop to fold out the K2s/T9o crap that had no business seeing the flop, you bet again to fold out A-high and underpairs, you bet again to get them off 6x, split pairs and backdoor draws that whiffed. The random folds you get from Kx on the BBB line or 6x on the BXB line is icing on the cake.
Everyone's leak in all of NLHE is being too inelastic, so the junkier the bottom of their necessary calling range is, the better a spot it is to bluff, especially against fish who are going to be most driven by absolute value.
