10/25/50 Fold turned set?

Obviously, you're not that deep given the straddle.

Obviously, V would expect AJ or 33 to be good here. Would he bet this much? Maybe not.

He could certainly be bluffing as you might 3! JJ, TT, 99, AA or KQs. And an ace is just the classic over card to bluff in case you are hanging on with QJ, KJ, 89, QT. He might be able to get the job done more cheaply, but maybe not.

I get that the sizing is a little worrisome but I would call without much thought. I'm not doing cartwheels when I call, but I'm not folding a set either.

is this one of those fake reverse uno hands where you're the Villain?

Pot turn, overbet river = polarized. You block 99 bluffs, don’t block straights. Unless villain is known to triple bluff, fold and move on.

This.

FWIW, I'd consider folding otf.

Yeh I think OTF we should just fold OOP - if we're IP then I'd call. OTT I would think he checks back AJ - on the river we lose to KQ,JJ,TT,AA - I don't really see any other hands taking this line. It's also just not really a board he'll have bluffs on - if he has AK/AQ he'll prob just check behind on the river, any bare Ax he bluffs checks behind river. I mean we can make the call under the guise that we have like 55bb effective and he's good enough to have a balanced range, but not really liking our chances.

Only street that seems interesting is turn. Lead and x/jam are both on the table. x/jam seems best since you unblock most the hands that regret betting, and you've already seen him bet a fairly merged hand in a similar spot.

River really isn't close.

BTW is this the villain from the hand where you bluff raised KK OTR? 😃

river winning nearly 20bb at equilibrium lol

doubt he vbets too much worse like this. aj i guess but discounted by turn and 33 which is supposed to be completely discounted by pre but idk about that in practice. would imagine if he opens he does this w it post

It’s amazing to me how you get to win so much playing in an incredibly soft casino yet ask basic 100bb or less questions routinely to tell your bad beat stories.

A thinking player has lots of bluffs when you just call multiple streets. The hand histories show he is thinking.

Also his race is completely irrelevant who cares.

Yeah, I wouldn't be happy about this, but don't think you can fold a set this shallow. He could be bluffing or value betting worse.

Is this a public casino game? Or is it semi-private or an underground game?

Same villain yeah.

Public.

Yeah good point, old habit I picked up from years ago on this forum when many people here relied on stereotypes to get whatever reads they could on unknowns. Not really useful, much more important is player tendencies ainec.

Surprised that flop is not discussed more. To me this seems foldable. There are no real good turns, villain seems aggressive & the board most likely will get worse.

Other than than … you could lead/fold turn & river if you don’t want to call down. I don’t see how you can consider folding with this line.

Speaking for me personally, I didn't discuss it more because it is "foldable."

It's a 0EV call that is in reality going to be a pure call or pure fold depending on if you suck more or less than them.

It's probably the best hand in our 0EV range, which makes me default to call it because of the EV donation factor at live that's independent of you being better than them (eg: they're opening exploitably wide to exploit the fish.)

🧂🧂🧂🧂🧂🧂🧂🧂🧂

Much respect.

I’d pay attention to his overall line types in future hands. When he downbets flop boards like this after raising in MP or EP what does he have? Primarily overpairs and some pair + backdoor hands would be my guess, as opposed to AK and other misses that would bet larger?

You can defend with pocket 99 here I think that street is fine as you beat lots of pair + draws and some overcard downbets or just fold, but then calling to set mine doesn’t really pay off if he doesn’t always have overpairs or blastoff bluffs to pay you with. So folding pre OOP heads-up actually is an option.

When he bets pot on the turn after downbet I think you need to primarily fold with some mixed jams to defend with. Calling OOP with SPR 1 would only make sense to trap in his airball bluffs and river fires with worse than your pair if he is going to fire river. I would imagine he is going to stop betting most hands you beat once you call turn, so if going with it jamming the turn both for value and an occasional merge bluff to fold out better is good.

As played I think most of his bluffs give up river or don’t go all-in after you call down and that he has value in his mind, but that includes AQ,AK as you mentioned and some bluffs and this is not that deep so you have to call.

I’m guessing he had a straight and your questions are good ones, just pay attention to how he plays other hands and the lines he uses for value and bluffs.

Long run you can call flop and then fold turn to non give ups or just fold flop is where you should be thinking OOP versus a strong MP open from him if he doesn’t open much. You also need to 3b pre to defend and for value some.

When we get to the river the way we did, I don't think I could fold a set.

The thing that sticks out to me is that we won't have very many straights here. Mostly just the one combo of KQ that picked up the BDFD. We're mostly folding all our 2P below AJ, and we don't often have JJ/TT. So it would seem like V gets to bet a lot of hands here, both for value and for bluffs, but I'd think his super-thick value would bet smaller, because our range doesn't have very many strong hands. And I'd think a lot of his thin value hands would bet smaller than all in.

I dunno. It just seems like he has too many bluffs in this spot, and not enough thick value. If he can beat our set, tap the table and reload.

I’d fold too. The line and sizing both scream straight; not many worse hands jam here.