5-10-20, river go for value or check back?

I would 3! shove the flop with pot behind.

90x effective, this seems a fairly clear 3! shove otf.

I could get behind calling the c/r in position if you were deeper.

As played flop, checking this turn seems fine.

When V checks river, it's very unlikely that he has the straight.
I hesitate between shoving and betting smallish, like 300-400 (and calling if V c/shoves).

Ranking streets in the order of how much I'd want to jam them:

1) River
2) Turn
3) Flop

I would definitely jam river, definitely not jam flop, and turn I'm pretty unsure about.

I would shove the flop, because you are beating everything but a set and have outs against that. I don't think many people will x/r/fold to a psb. The turn and river may bring cards which are difficult for you or may kill your action.

I think you'll find tilted 5/T/20 players making a 1/3p raise over a 1/3p bet are the exception.

The odds that villain is going to make it to showdown without committing their stack is extremely low (it shouldn't happen even on this runout), and flatting is going to increase the number of times they get money in bad (either because future cards actually improve their hand or because they think they can rep it) without meaningfully increasing the amount of equity we forfeit.

I like the way you played it and I would check behind. I don’t think you get called by worse at this point, so you’re not getting extra value

My view is that villain’s early action (3Bet & check-raise) indicates a big pocket pair. You are probably ahead, but a good player could be ready to check-raise the straight. Villain knows you don’t have the straight or you wouldn’t have checked back the turn.

Shove flop is better before this turn card kills our action.

It would be strange to x/r/fold for a psb on a wet flop. If he does fold, he probably is folding some equity and he only needs to win 1/3 of the time to make the call profitable. On the flop, you know you are way ahead or about 34% against a straight. There are lots of turn cards like what hit which will make it harder to get allin and/or will make it less certain you are ahead.

Grunch:

PRE - seems pretty standard.

FLOP - this seems like he's getting OOL. It's a small x/r on a board that would seem to favor us more than him. I like the flat call. Let him hang himself.

TURN - with just a PSB left, and a set on this super connected board, I think I just stick it in and hope he's tilted enough to call with whatever he has.

RIVER - as played to this point, I think we bet really small to induce a x-jam, like $200-$300. Maybe he shows up with some AJ or other aces up combo, or just AX that will hero call.

It's hard to put him on any hand that takes this line for value. If he's got a straight or a higher set and plays it this way, more power to him. Seems more likely he 3B pre with 88/77 and flopped a lower set, or he's just playing tilt-aggro.

idk i want to bet like 10% ott lol. i guess maybe like 20 or something is better

i dont think you really fool him if u check the turn and then jam the river

ap i would bet tiny i guess. i think he is more likely to fold a better hand than call worse vs a jam if i had to guess

is interesting hand though. his line looks very good on early streets

solver mostly wanna jam this over the x/r otf and call straights / lower sets

Curious about the reasoning for jamming river now, after V checks to us twice. Is there some frequency that he thinks he's trapping after improving on turn or river, and hoping to induce us to bluff?

It's hard for me to wrap my head around this spot and find a hand V can have in this line that's strong enough to call a jam, unless he thinks he's trapping.

Like, what are the odds V x/r'd this flop with AJ or that he'll call a jam with AK/AQ? Seems to me that a jam gets called by worse less often than a small bet will get raised by worse, especially if V might be tilting.

think its pretty unlikely he is tilting given villain description

Are we calling flop because he may be bluffing with close to air? TT/T9s pretty much have odds to call if they knew your hand. I don't think an overpair 3!/folds. A lower set definitelyi isn't folding and we want to make sure all goes in against that. I would think he has an overpair, a set, or an OESD with overcards. 66-AA, T9s/QTs/KTs/ATs. He could be ahead with JTs/65s. I would want to get the money in or make him fold his equity, not let him draw without paying. Just seems strange he would checkraise a wet board with air.

I think there's a fair discussion to be had about sizing, especially when it comes to the turn. I'll admit I am complete and total ass when it comes to boards with 4 to the nuts (or in this case 2nd nuts), and I think high frequency/small sizing makes a lot of sense conceptually, though I think it's more pertinent for the turn than the river.

Once we get to the river this way, there ain't no way you're satisfied with just getting 1

I tend to not go small IP OTR unless I'm going exploitatively thin with a hand that never vbets in theory (which I'm not here). But again, that's because I can't find a study buddy or video that will indulge me in clicking on runouts other than offsuit 7, offsuit 2, so it's entirely possible the smaller sizes are preferable here.

This isn't so much about traps as just being ahead of hands that are eager to get to showdown, like 88/AJ/J9 or even hands like AK/AQ that shouldn't call a big river bet but you should give them a chance to make a mistake.

Yes, if they're tight enough their range is exclusively stackoff hands, you should jam and secure the cooler.

This is about maximizing against someone with a bluff or at least merged range.

Fair enough.

To the extent you want to bother having a 3b range for non-exploitative reasons ... well in any spot where you're IP at <20:1 SPR, top set makes sense here. It's on the right side of a cooler more than any other semi-vulnerable hands.

As far as exploitative strats are concerned, I'd jam an all-bluff range against regs and jam an all-value range against fish.

As far as GTO simplification strats are concerned, I just wouldn't 3b IP. (Though 1 SPR is a spot where you probably actually get some EV gain out of it.)

If you're jamming because you have correctly identified in-game the value combos that most want to fastplay stacks in, then I don't hate it even if I still disagree for exploitative reasons.

I agree if he has a lot of total bluffs then flat. It just seems ambitious for the preflop 3-bettor to checkraise a wet flop as a pure bluff.

This is only my opinion. Take it FWIW...

First, it's 5-10-20. Even if V may be somewhat tilted, I'd expect him to be less likely to tilt than if it were a lower stakes game, especially if he's comfortable playing up to 100/200.

If anything, I'd think being comfortable playing higher stakes than these might make him a little more splashy at these lower stakes, such that he could be 3B'ing wide pre, and x/r'ing wide on the flop.

If he's wide, and I suspect he is, then he's more likely to be x/r'ing the flop with air or 1P + a draw than an over-pair. I don't think he's x/r'ing straights here. I think his value combos are just lower sets.

If we check-raise, he just folds his air, and probably folds most of his over-pairs. He might conceivably find a hero-fold with 77. And the problem is that 88 / 77 just don't make up a very big chunk of his 3B'ing range pre. Even if we add in all the combos of T9s, there just aren't that many combos he can have that will pay us off if we jam.

My reasoning for suspecting he's wide here is A) he's used to playing higher stakes, so he could be getting OOL more often at lower stakes, B) he just lost a big pot in a "messed up way", so he might be tilted, C) he's 3B'ing out of the SB, where he's probably playing 3B-or-fold anyway, D) hero bet a tad more than 1/3 pot as the pre-flop caller, possibly inducing some light x/r's from the PFR, E) his x/r size is less than 3x from OOP, which doesn't necessarily look like he wants to play a 2-street game with a nutted hand, and F) his pre-flop 3B range doesn't have very many combos that make straights or lower sets on this board, so he's repping pretty thin.

If he's a good player, he's going to have hands like A5s with a BDFD in this line, and some 66 / TT, some KQs, etc. While most low-stakes recs don't have a x/r-fold button on the flop, good players can and will x/r-fold on boards like this, when we ship it for 1.5x pot on a board that smashes our range more than his.

I'd think we'll have a lot more JT in our range than he will, so it makes sense for him to x/r flop and then slow down when we call. The hand I'm most worried about here is TT, which could credibly take this line, though I'd think he'd come out and bet river for a huge size after we check back the turn and the river might make us some aces up.

I dunno. It's an interesting spot on the river. If we think he's ever sand-bagging, and we bet small hoping to induce a bluff-raise, I don't see how we can ever fold.

idk about the cooler thing. the sim i r using for pre ranges has oop 3betting 77/88 like 10% and 99 20%. i actually pretty unsure why its doing this. it thinks 99 has 81% equity vs the x/r and 88 79%

the only 9x in the x/r range is discounted both from pre and then mixing otf, are t9ss hands. there are no 7x / 8x

is odd to me cuz most of the x/r range of made hands is overpairs and the sets perform mostly equally well vs them. is the extra ~2% equity enough of a difference?

he isn't x/r folding overpairs

Are you alluding to the flop bet and / or raise sizing? Because I think hero's smallish flop bet could induce some light x/r's from the PFR, and a light x/r might be smaller on this very connected board that would seem to favor hero's range more.

So...there was no turn bet, so I take your meaning to be about what size V should bet, or what size bet hero should make when V checks on a "scare" card.

My thinking is that the likelihood V gets to the turn this way with TT, JT, or JJ isn't high enough to outweigh all the times he gets here with hands that would love it if we check back, or won't fold if we decide to jam after flatting the flop, if only because we're not going to have a ton of TT, JT, or JJ here either, and are sets are likely to 3B the flop.

Thinking about it more now - I think a turn jam by hero looks polar enough that V might level himself into making some light calls, and 99 is a hand that is both strong enough to jam for value but not strong enough to love checking back on this board, and can't expect much loose action on most rivers.

I'll see your total ass and raise you an even bigger ass - I can't remember the last time I was in a spot like this, so I can't claim to know the best approach.

If, let's just say, we bet flop and V just check-called, I could easily see the arguments in favor of betting small on this turn card. But V 3B from the SB pre, then x/r'd small on the flop.

For the same reasons we don't want to get 1 PSB on the river, I don't want to risk NOT getting that 1 PSB on the river by just betting small here, and letting V realize and / or get away from his hand on the river.

I agree we want to get all the money. My gut feeling is that our best chance is on the turn, when our jam may look more bluffy than it will on the river, and V may have decided to give up with his bricked draws or un-paired over-cards, or whatever he has that takes this line.

Right, but...V checked again, after we checked back turn. What hands can he have that want to call a jam, that don't just come out and jam himself? If we're lucky, he somehow took this line with AJ, AK, or AQ and can't fold, but he might decide to turn some of those hands into a check-raise bluff at some frequency if we just bet small.

Again, my gut feeling is that his flop x/r was a knee-jerk reaction to our small flop bet. When we check back the turn, and then bet small on the river, he might have the same knee-jerk reaction, and decide to put in another check-raise.

I wonder if we're looking at this through two distinctly different lenses. In my small stakes games, the small flop bet, check-back turn, small river bet line looks weak AF, and is going to induce shenanigans from the "good" players in those games, and get looked up a lot by the bad players, whereas the river jam is almost always super-nutted.

Maybe you're looking at this through the lends of a good player who can jam the river for value and expect to get looked up often enough by opponents who think you're capable of turning enough hands that call the flop into river bluff-jams.

Like, I'm really struggling to imagine a 1/3 player bet-calling the flop x/r, checking back the turn, and then jamming river as a bluff when there's a one-liner to a T and the river is an A. Most low-stakes recs just can't find that bluff with any hand that flats the flop and checks back the turn.

I'm not a big proponent of the small bet IP OTR either, but I think it has its time and place. Hero's hand is somewhat under-repped when he doesn't 3B the flop, and he checks back turn. V is unlikely to put us on 99 here, but might put us on Tx if we bet huge.

That's sort of the direction I want to steer into - bet small to get hero'd by AK/AQ, and occasionally get bluff-raised or oops-raised by AJ.

This is such a strange spot for V to x/r the flop that I'm struggling to give him many hands that want to get to showdown which will also call off a jam. AJ might sigh-call. I think 88 is probably barreling turn or leading out on the river after we check back. Hard to see him showing up with J9 all that often. I'd be sick if he hero-folded 2P+, and just mad at myself if he snap-folded AK/AQ.

He's not x/r'ing over-pairs, or he's not x/r'ing and also folding?

I wouldn't expect over-pairs to be x/r'ing here very often, but if / when a good player does x/r with an over-pair, I'd think they'd be able to fold to a 1.5x jam on this board.

My hunch is you're looking at sims and seeing that his over-pairs pure x-r-call, but I think a lot of live players will find a disrespectful fold if hero jams.

If we really think he's not folding, then alright, let's just 3B-jam the flop and pray he's trying to do what the solvers do, and won't make an exploitable fold.

he is x/ring them probably 2/3 of the time and not folding vs jam

he cannot only stack off on this board with sets+ as he just doesn't have them given preflop nearly enough of the time and the spr is low. he plays range x otf and when thats the case you need to x/r aggressively to not let ip stab. once ip jams it kind of sucks but he has a bunch of bluffs he can fold and theres already 1200 in the pot

I'm confused by the preflop ranges. Are you using BB instead of SB?

In any case, the difference between 81% and 79% is a critical threshold for value hands. Though I'm not sure how applicable that is here as I think it's more important for being ahead of 80% of hands rather than having 80% equity. But I don't know I've only just started to figure this stuff out for end-of-action spots, not early streets on dynamic boards with a million nodes left on the tree. My ears just perk up whenever I hear 80% in reference to value like Jim Carrey hearing the number 23.

I'm not someone who really believes that only people who play certain games should comment on certain HHs, but this conversation is making it apparent that it is important for the particular mode of analysis you're employing. You're just taking a lot of swings at how a 100/200 player is thinking through/playing these spots and missing on most of it. Not even gonna give examples because it's really not about that on the macro level.

I don't think it's helpful for OP and--as profligate as I am with my time around here--I don't think it's useful for me to parse through this point-by-point.

It's nothing personal; you could certainly say the least helpful parts of my post has been taking the bait on thinking villain is tilted and giving specific exploits for the population. And as far as I can tell I think you're taking up my side in the argument, so I'm not cheering against you or anything.

I will, however, let this post lie.