Does the same amount of money go into the pot if you bet or check on average
Scenario: BUvBB SRP 100bb, 6max no ante -- And somewhat extended to most other spots
If IP checks back flop is the average pot size smaller/same as when IP bets flop
another example MPvBB SRP 9s8s3c, IP can check back overpairs, does the same amount of money go into the pot if you bet or check on average
6 Replies
In many cases yes, as evidenced by the fact that the top of your range is indifferent between betting and checking.
I cover the theory of betting volume in this video:
I have seen some data that suggests that in practice more money goes in on average when you bet, even if in theory that might not be the case if you were playing against a solver.
In many cases yes, as evidenced by the fact that the top of your range is indifferent between betting and checking.I cover the theory of betting volume in this video:
This is only necessarily true when we have 100% equity, right?
Otherwise we also have to take into account things like equity when called and value of fold equity.
For example, I am looking at a river toy game where my value hand is indifferent between betting 25% and 100% pot.
My opponent puts in much more money on average when I bet 100%, but my equity is lower when called, so the EV is the same.
Or another toy game where I have the nut straight on the turn and my opponent has a flush draw.
The EV of shoving turn is higher than betting tiny, despite our opponent always folding when we shove.
So we have the nuts and 80% equity and we still prefer the line where our opponent puts zero chips into the pot, given these two options.
I think it depends how big SPR is and how far from river. If SPR is high and you are ott nuts usually wants to pure bet.
Another Q:
Is solvers desire to bet its strong EQ hands at a high frequency at all related to its ability to get its entire stack in?
If your solve doesn’t have a sizing required to leverage stacks efficiently after XB then it may lean to betting(?)
(E.g. the lack of a X-X-Raise allin otr vs block)
Or perhaps it’s just that it prefers spreading bets across streets geometrically. With the additional benefit that having our high EQ hands in a bet line prevents villain from raising our weaker bets (that want to fold out villains EQ)
Lets say you have the absolute nuts for simplicity. The goal is to maximize your opponent's expected contribution to the pot.
If you're too deep that's hard to do, so you need to bet sooner. If shallow SPR it's easier to get stacks in, so no rush to fast-play.
In a perfectly polarized toy game, you maximize opponent's contribution to the pot by betting geometrically. But, in reality, draw equity can change the optimal sizing path to play for stacks.
And yes, lacking sizes can also influence these things.
But the most fundamental thing to consider is just how deep you are, and how much money your opponent puts in facing different lines.
