NCAA Football 2025

TUESDAY
7:00:00 PM Kennesaw State -2.5
7:00:00 PM Florida International 2.5

7:30:00 PM Western Kentucky 3.5
7:30:00 PM Louisiana Tech -3.5

WEDNESDAY
7:30:00 PM Middle Tenn. St 10.5
7:30:00 PM Delaware -9.5

9:00:00 PM Missouri State -1.5
9:00:00 PM New Mexico State 1.5

THURSDAY
7:30:00 PM South Alabama -6
7:30:00 PM Georgia State 6.5

FRIDAY
7:00:00 PM North Texas -26.5
7:00:00 PM UNC Charlotte 27.5

7:30:00 PM California 4.5
7:30:00 PM Virginia Tech -4

10:00:00 PM Boise State -21.5
10:00:00 PM Nevada 22.5

SATURDAY
12:00:00 PM Appalachian State 13.5
12:00:00 PM Old Dominion -13

12:00:00 PM South Florida -3.5
12:00:00 PM Memphis 4
Memphis lost to AWFUL uab last week to take some of the shine off this game. USF is now firmly in the driver's seat in the AAC, having already beaten North Texas. They might even have a little cushion if they lose here, since Memphis could easily lose to Tulane to drop to two conference losses.

12:00:00 PM Mississippi 4.5
12:00:00 PM Oklahoma -4.5
Every SEC match feels like a prize fight down the stretch. Ole Miss last four are about as easy as it gets: South Carolina, Citadel and Florida at home then @ Cowbell. A win here would pick up a third quality win (LSU, Tulane) and will likely buy them some rope in case they lose a game they shouldn't in the last 4. A loss and they need to be perfect. OU on the other hand, has murderer's row: @ Tenn, @ Bama, v Mizzou and v LSU to close (in addition to already having played Texas and Michigan). I think they often get in at 9-3, but they probably don't want to put that theory to the test.

12:00:00 PM Kansas State 3
12:00:00 PM Kansas -2.5

12:00:00 PM Syracuse 17.5
12:00:00 PM Georgia Tech -17.5

12:00:00 PM Virginia -9.5
12:00:00 PM North Carolina 10

12:00:00 PM SMU -3.5
12:00:00 PM Wake Forest 3.5

12:00:00 PM UCLA 24.5
12:00:00 PM Indiana -24.5
UCLA is on fire, having won 3 in a row under the new staff. In many ways, this will be a test of Indiana's new found juggernaut status. Do they roll like Ohio State would here?

12:00:00 PM Northwestern 7.5
12:00:00 PM Nebraska -7.5
Both teams are 5-2 and harbor very slim playoff hopes. NW plays Nebraska, USC, Michigan and Illinois so they basically take on the entire B1G middle class. Nebraska's schedule is much lighter, and even at 10-2 would need a lot of help. Tulane is certainly hoping for Northwestern to make some noise as well.

12:00:00 PM Rutgers -2.5
12:00:00 PM Purdue 2.5

12:00:00 PM Bowling Green -8.5
12:00:00 PM Kent 8.5

12:00:00 PM Ohio -10.5
12:00:00 PM Eastern Michigan 11

12:45:00 PM Auburn -1
12:45:00 PM Arkansas 1.5

1:00:00 PM Akron 10.5
1:00:00 PM Buffalo -9.5

3:00:00 PM Utah State 2.5
3:00:00 PM New Mexico -2.5

3:00:00 PM UConn -9.5
3:00:00 PM Rice 10.5

3:30:00 PM San Diego State -3
3:30:00 PM Fresno State 3.5

3:30:00 PM Louisiana-Monroe 12.5
3:30:00 PM Southern Miss -12.5

3:30:00 PM Florida Atlantic 15.5
3:30:00 PM Navy -15.5

3:30:00 PM Temple -5.5
3:30:00 PM Tulsa 6

3:30:00 PM Alabama -13.5
3:30:00 PM South Carolina 13.5
Alabama's roll has made everybody forget their opening loss to FSU, even as the Noles have dropped four straight. Would a second (or third) Alabama loss make people pause and reconsider their resume from scratch and realize how apparently bad that loss was? Bama is still very live for the SEC at 9-3, as they will own many h2h tiebreaks. I feel like South Carolina, Arkansas, Florida, Auburn and Mississippi State owe us more chaos than they've given us so far. Between them, those five have only won 1 game against the contenders (UF over Texas). I expect at least two or three more, and am hoping for four or five.

3:30:00 PM Missouri 3
3:30:00 PM Vanderbilt -2.5
Both teams have 1 loss, are locked in at 10-2, and are very likely out at 9-3. Loser is on the brink, winner survives and advances.

3:30:00 PM BYU 2.5
3:30:00 PM Iowa State -2.5
Undefeated BYU is an underdog once again. Iowa State needs to win out to stay alive.

3:30:00 PM North Carolina State 7.5
3:30:00 PM Pittsburgh -7
Can Pitt make some noise in the ACC?

3:30:00 PM Illinois 5.5
3:30:00 PM Washington -4.5
Finally, a bona-fide two-way elimination game. Winner survives and advances, loser is OUT.

3:30:00 PM Minnesota 9
3:30:00 PM Iowa -7.5
All of a sudden Iowa is live too? They play Oregon at home and @ USC, so plenty of time to build their resume / knock out other contenders

3:30:00 PM Toledo 2.5
3:30:00 PM Washington State -1.5

3:30:00 PM Ball State 5.5
3:30:00 PM Northern Illinois -5.5

3:30:00 PM Massachusetts 15.5
3:30:00 PM Central Michigan -14.5

3:30:00 PM Western Michigan 2.5
3:30:00 PM Miami (OH) -2

4:00:00 PM Baylor 5.5
4:00:00 PM Cincinnati -5.5
Cincy is 6-1, ranked, doesn't play Tech and undefeated in conference. Nebraska is hoping they do as well as possible.

4:00:00 PM Oklahoma State 38.5
4:00:00 PM Texas Tech -38.5

4:15:00 PM Texas -6.5
4:15:00 PM Mississippi State 7
See above. Texas flirted with disaster last week, hopefully Cowbell knocks them off (although not for good, since they'd still be live to make the SECCG with only 2 conference losses)

6:00:00 PM TCU -14.5
6:00:00 PM West Virginia 15

7:00:00 PM Georgia Southern 3
7:00:00 PM Arkansas State -2.5

7:00:00 PM Louisiana-Lafayette 9.5
7:00:00 PM Troy -8.5

7:00:00 PM Stanford 30.5
7:00:00 PM Miami -29.5

7:00:00 PM Wisconsin 34.5
7:00:00 PM Oregon -34.5

7:30:00 PM Colorado State 6
7:30:00 PM Wyoming -5.5

7:30:00 PM Texas A&M -2.5
7:30:00 PM LSU 2.5
It's PROBABLY an elimination game for LSU given Clemson's implosion (though beating Bama and Oklahoma to close might give them a shot at 9-3). Meanwhile ATM survived a shootout with Arkansas last week, but is still undefeated and has a loss to burn. If they win here, they're basically locked in to the playoffs, unless they lose to all 3 of @ Mizzou, vs USCe and @ Texas. A loss, and they' have to finish 2-1 which is still very doable.

7:30:00 PM Boston College 24.5
7:30:00 PM Louisville -23.5

7:30:00 PM Michigan -14
7:30:00 PM Michigan State 14.5

7:45:00 PM Tennessee -9
7:45:00 PM Kentucky 9.5

8:00:00 PM Houston 8.5
8:00:00 PM Arizona State -7.5
Houston is very quietly 6-1. Winner has incredible B12 equity, loser is in a tough spot.

8:00:00 PM North Dakota State -4.5
8:00:00 PM South Dakota State 4.5

10:15:00 PM Colorado 14.5
10:15:00 PM Utah -14.5

One thing that also has the fanbase wanting to get rid of Stoops now is the next hire is right there in Jon Sumrall. Played at UK, started his coaching career at UK and has gotten it done at Troy and Tulane. Admittingly if the under the scene talks don't have Sumrall at UK...I don't have a good solid second plan.

Do I know if Sumrall can get UK to even the height Stoops had it to. Don't know. Honestly doubt it. But it is time for a change, and he is a perfect hire. Was the same with Calipari and Pope.

Does an Auburn game ever not get weird?

Kentucky outgained Texas 395-176 and 26 to 8 first downs.

Texas moved down 1 spot lol

Texas no playoff line stayed about the same after beating Oklahoma and Kentucky

I don't think people are fully appreciating how preposterous the ACC race is

UVA GT and Duke skip everybody except each other, and UVA and GT don't even play each other either. Both could just... win out and lock everybody else out.

Then Miami, Louisville and SMU all play each other. The only game between this pod and the UVA/GT/Duke pod is UVA > Louisville

Then Pitt is kind of a tiny bridge, playing Miami and Louisville (lost), and also playing GT.

Clemson and FSU are a combined 2-7

The most important games remaining are:
Duke/UVA - loser is likely out, since they are dominated by GT (Duke has 2hh loss, and UVA would lose a tiebreak bc of losing this game)

GT / Pitt - if GT loses, then they'd probably lose the tiebreak to whomever emerges from the Miami/Louisville/Pitt/SMU quasi-scrum.

Then of course Miami/SMU, Miami/Pitt and Louisville/SMU

It feels very likely the ACC gets 2 bids, they just play so many games against garbage ACC teams rather than knocking each other out

The ACC/SEC rivalry games will be interesting too:
GT / UGA
Louisville / Kentucky
Clemson / South Carolina

The games already played:
FSU > Bama
Miami > Florida
Tenn > Cuse
USCe and Vandy > VT

If Georgia Tech can upset Georgia on a neutral field, the ACC could somehow materialize with 3 bids.

12-1 GT who loses the ACCCG
ACCCG winner (UVA, Louisville, Duke)
11-1 or even 10-2 Miami

UVA is 3-0
Skip Miami, GT, SMU, Pitt
Beat Louisville
Play Duke

GT is 4-0
Skip Miami, Louisville, UVA, SMU,
Beat Duke
Play Pitt

Duke is 3-1
skip Miami, Louisville, SMU, Pitt
Lost to GT
Play UVA

Miami is 1-1
Skip UVA, GT, Duke
Lost to Louisville
Play SMU, Pitt

SMU is 3-0
Skip UVA, GT, Duke, Pitt
Play Louisville and Miami

Louisville is 1-1
Skip GT, Duke
Beat Miami, Pitt
Lost to UVA
Plays SMU

Pitt is 3-1
Skip UVA, Duke, SMU
Lost to Lousiville
Play GT and Miami

Memphis's qb missed half the game with a leg injury and looked pretty hobbly getting off the field. Called "day to day" but given he's a running qb against a decent pass rush, plus the freshman backup, Hill, ...well, lost to UAB, I'm not expecting great things.

Hilariously, Lewis is #2 and Hill #3. The two are similar builds and run a lot. You don't get the best announcers at UAB games, so they just kept calling "Lewis" and even commenting that his play seemed worse than usual.

In the announcers' defense, it was the "UAB Children's Hospital" game where UAB players wear the names of patients, so perhaps they'd just gotten used to ignoring the names.

Vegas' is underrating Oregon's odds of getting a top-4 seed and a bye

They're already at #6 and are a flip to win out. UGA / ATM / Bama ahead of them, very likely all 3 lose at least 1 game (if not more), although the SEC winner may jump them back

Miami might also get a bye without winning the ACCCG which would be hilarious

SEC is almost a flip to win the title, despite no single team being > 13%

Eight teams have at least 4%, and two others have just under 1%

My playoff projections, based on nothing other than waving my hand in the air and trying to conjure up some magic:

Ohio State beats Indiana for the B1G title
Oregon wins out to finish 11-1

10-2 Alabama beats 11-1 Texas A&M for the SEC title

Miami runs the table, but gets left out of the ACCG, which is between 10-2 UVA and 11-1 Georgia Tech
GT wins, and UVA is left out of the playoffs

Texas Tech wins the B12

USF wins the AAC

1 Ohio State 13-0
2 Oregon 11-1
3 Miami 11-1
4 Alabama 11-2
5 ATM 11-2
6 Indiana 11-2
7 Texas Tech 12-1
8 Notre Dame 10-2
9 UGA 10-2
10 Georgia Tech 12-1
11 Ole Miss 10-2
12 USF 11-2

Bubble team: 9-3 Oklahoma

ATM beats USF
Indiana beats Ole Miss
Texas Teach blows out Georgia Tech
Notre Dame beats UGA

Notre Dame upsets Ohio State
Oregon beats Texas Tech
Indiana beats Miami
ATM wins the rematch against Alabama

Many people question whether getting a bye is a good thing after bye teams go 1-3

Notre Dame beats ATM to return to the title game

Oregon wins a nailbiter rematch against Indiana

Oregon beats ND to win their first national title

Ya the byes are going to be weird this time. It's hard to imagine a world where 3 big 10 teams get a bye though. But would be quite interesting if these things happened:

1 loss SEC Champ, this could be Alabama, Texas A&M, Georgia or Ole Miss at this point

1 loss Miami ACC Champ

1 loss Ohio State losing to Michigan but winning the B12CG vs Indiana

1 loss Indiana

1 loss Oregon

1 loss Texas Tech

2 loss Texas A&M

2 loss Ole Miss

2 loss Georgia

2 loss Notre Dame

2 loss Georgia Tech

2 loss Michigan

3 loss Oklahoma

How do they seed that?

Your scenario wasn't far off of mine as it is

Feels like it has too many teams winning out

Depends on whether the SEC loser is 11-2 or 10-3. 10-3 is much more likely, so I'll go with that

1 SEC champ (winner will jump OSU when they lose to Michigan, and will stay there)
2 Miami, same story
3 Ohio State
4 Indiana will have been #1 going in to this, and will drop behind OSU, but won't drop past an oregon team they beat on the road. Could also see 2 OSU, 3 Indiana 4 Miami
5 Oregon
6 Tech
7 SEC loser
8 10-2 SEC
9 10-2 SEC
10 Notre Dame
11 Michigan
12 American winner

10-2 GT and 9-3 OU are out without any doubt, even though OU > Michigan

The scenarios are pretty far apart. Mine doesn't have much chaos, and yours has exponentially less

Crazy **** is gonna happen.

Georgia Tech hasn't played a top-40 team and yet they have 3 narrow wins. They could easily lose 2 ACC games

They could also easily beat Georgia

I would not surprise me at all if Texas Tech loses on the road to Kansas State

ATM could lose @ LSU, @ Mizzou and @ Texas and be out of the playoffs

It wouldn't shock me if Alabama lost a game to USCe/LSU/OU then also lost @ Auburn to close

Texas and Georgia and Ole Miss have been playing with fire every single week

Miami is really good, but Cristobol is the biggest dumbass in the universe and they could for sure lose @ SMU and/or @ Pitt and/or something stupid like lose @ VT

Ohio State's offense has been pretty mid. Their defense has been insane, but Michigan's defense could keep the game low scoring and a couple crazy plays could swing it

Mark Stoops is a living tariff on joy is a great one liner

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U70vujBF...

It's week 9, and 53 teams are still live for the playoff!

Eight ACC teams:
GT
UVA
SMU
Pitt
Duke
Louisville
Cal
Miami

7 American teams:
Navy
USF
Tulane
Memphis
UNT
ECU
Temple

Eleven B12 teams:
BYU
Cincy
ASU
Texas Tech
Houston
Iowa State
TCU
Baylor
Utah
Kansas State
Kansas (just barely, since they already lost to two frontrunners h2h)

Twelve Big-10 teams:
Indiana
OSU
Oregon
Northwestern
USC
Iowa
Michigan
Minnesota
UCLA (!!!)
Illinois
Nebraska
Washington

Notre Dame

Eleven SEC teams:
ATM
Alabama
UGA
Ole Miss
Texas
Mizzou
Oklahoma
Vandy
LSU
Tennessee
Florida (!!!)

Three MWC teams, 1 Sun Belt team, 0 CUSA, 0 MAC, although it seems nearly impossible that the AAC winner doesn't get the bid
Boise
SDSU
UNLV
James Madison

Among the P4:

We have 4 bona-fide elimination games, where the winner is still live for the playoff, and the loser is dead:

Northwestern @ Nebraska
Illinois @ Washington
Minnesota @ Iowa
K-State @ Kansas

Then 7 teams who are technically live for the playoff who could be eliminated:

Cal (@ VT)

Iowa State (vs BYU)
Baylor (@ Cincy)
TCU (@ WVU)
Utah (vs Colorado)

Michigan (@ Sparty)

Tennessee (@ Kentucky)

I suppose "reasonable people" might see this as not worth mentioning, but I feel like mentioning; I think Troy is not dead yet!

• 1. They have to play like the Spirit of Variance (like they have the last 7 quarters)
  
• 2. They destroy heavily favored JMU for Sunbelt champs
  
• 3. 11-1 Memphis gets edged by 9-3 Navy for the AAC, after Navy gets absoluted by Notre Dame, I'm talking court marshalls getting called for against Midshipmen
  
• 4. Someone 9-3 (or Hawai'i probably) wins the MWC
  
• 5. Clemson straightens up and flies right
  

Perfectly reasonable, perfectly normal thing to think through.

In order I'd say probabilities are:
100%
95%
10%
10%
5%, but I've been accused of excessive optimism before.

Give me +250000 on Troy you cowards!!!

Pretty hard for Navy to lose 2 AAC games and still make the AACCG. In this scenario, they're losing to Memphis, and then also presumably to either USF or UNT, and there aren't really enough games left for them to lose to drop past navy. I guess Navy could lose to FAU then beat those 2, but that leg alone would be 1%

And then even in this insane scenario, Navy is still a slam dunk to go over Troy. They'd have wins over Memphis (who beat Troy), USF and UNT.

Temple and Army would be better than almost all of Troy's wins as well

As long as we're talking one in a billion longshots, I'd take Western Kentucky (5-2, plays at LSU) ahead of Troy

Interesting. Well, I agree Western Kentucky's path to 11-2 is significantly easier since they just have to beat a bunch of CUSA teams and LSU on the road, but I haven't actually seen anything from them to indicate they're good enough to do any of that in the first place. Troy is at least showing a new level right now. Give Troy the remaining WKU schedule and I love it!

Like Troy has lost to Clemson and Memphis, but WKU got beaten worse by Toledo and then FIU just last week. Also the Hilltoppers have won a couple 1 score games against FBS-probationary teams. One of those sets of things can happen to a good G5 team.

Yeah, my point was that I'd take [team that almost certainly cannot win out] x [resume that could plausibly get the bid if they won out] over [team that could plausibly win out] x [resume that cannot get the bid even if they win out]

To be clear, I think WKU's odds of getting the bid even if they won out and beat LSU are still ~ zero.

On paper, should be a good weekend for ACC multi-bid hopes. All four ranked teams are double-digit favorites
#9 Miami -29.5 vs Stanford
#7 GT -17.5 vs Cuse
#16 UVA -10.5 @ UNC
#19 Louisville -25.5 vs BC

SEC will have at least 3 ranked teams lose:
#8 Ole Miss @ #13 Oklahoma
#15 Mizzou @ #10 Vandy
#3 ATM @ #20 LSU

and then has three other ranked teams playing losable road games:
#4 Bama -12.5 @ USCe
#22 Texas -6.5 @ Cowbell
#17 Tennessee -7.5 @ Kentucky

More than 50% that at least one of those three loses

Ranked teams, and games remaining BETWEEN ranked teams:
SEC - 10, 12 (!!!)
B1G - 5, 1
Big12 - 4, 2
ACC - 4, 0

Other ranked vs ranked games:
USF, none
Notre Dame, none
Georgia vs Georgia Tech

So if Pitt and SMU can not ruin things for the ACC, they are well positioned to stay above the carnage. I think they are a favorite to get 2 bids at this point, and I think 3 is about as likely as 1. (Would probably need Notre Dame to lose, and then go 4-3-3-1 sec/b1g/acc/b12)

B1G also very well positioned. Ohio State and Indiana are massive favorites to get thru to the playoffs. Oregon is 88% to go 10-2 or better, but they do play three contenders, Iowa, Washington and USC. So Oregon winning out eliminates 3 of the B1G's shots at 4. (Although one of those at 10-2 and Oregon at 10-2 both could easily make it)

Illinois or Nebraska could easily finish 10-2 without disturbing anything at the top, but both have pretty weak resumes.

Their best bet at a 4th bid is Michigan winning out and upsetting OSU to finish the season.

Penn State is like Clemson at this point - tons of NFL talent, but having a horrific year and you won't get much credit for beating them.

Things are pretty dicey for the Big 12. I currently project them at 1.2 bids, a season low.

The only lock for an at large bid is 2% chance BYU winning out (they are underdogs in 3 of their 5 remaining games), finishing 12-0 then losing in the Big-12 championship game (so ~1%)

I think Texas Tech winning out (49%) then losing in the CCG (~35%?) is almost certainly also going to get a bid

BYU losing once (15%) then losing in the CCG also has a good shot

Cincinnati winning out (3%) then losing in the B12cg is also very likely to go, they'd have won 11 in a row going into the CCG

I guess houston could win out (1%) and lose in the B12 cg and get a bid.

Don't think anybody else can get in without wining the title game.

I still think the SEC is going to absolutely tear itself apart, and we are due for some spoilage from Florida/Auburn/Miss St/Arkansas/Kentucky/USCe

The 10 ranked SEC teams already have 12 losses between them

They're going to pick up 12 more guaranteed losses from playing each other, plus play 15 more games against the bottom of the conf & GT

Even if they only lose 4 of those games, that's 28 losses across the 10 teams (plus a champ game loss)

They better hope a couple of those ranked contenders completely implode and finish 6-6 to suck up a bunch of those losses (and also that currently 1/0 loss teams run the table)

[QUOTE=ILOVEPOKER929;59128946]Record 23-24. Superlocks: 3-5

Here's the LOCKS of the week:

LSU ml (+114)
Miss St +7.5 (-135)
Pitt -6.5 (-112)
Wash St -1.5 (-108)
Minn +10.5 (-135)
Vandy -2.5 (-115)

$20 to win $883.91

Superlock: It's gotta be Minnesota +10.5. Minn-Iowa is gonna be a hard fought low scoring rivalry game. Minnesota could easily win but if Iowa wins there's no way they win by more than 10 pts. Iowa's QB had 68 yards passing last week. They're not good enough to beat Minnesota by more than double digits without major turnover variance.