Sick spot on the bubble, what is your range?

What's the average stack size?

If the average stack is small, like under 20 bb, it should be a pretty clear call.

The exact range to call with is going to vary a lot based on the stack sizes. Also there's stuff going on here that probably shouldn't happen, like the HJ should rarely ever be calling at that stack size on the bubble. So you're going to have to make some assumptions and try to figure out what type of ranges the other players are playing.

I'll take a stab in the dark and say if the average stack is around 15 or 20 bb or less I would probably call with something like:

AQo+, ATs+, 88+ and maybe KQ.

I think the only way it could be a fold is if potentially the average stack size was very large and thus your stack had little chance of making a deep run. In that case surviving to min-cash is most important and it plays almost similar to a satellite.

Starting stack is 50k and average stack size is 50k divided by 0.13 = about 380k

My read is big stack in low stakes are tighter than optimal but 4 starting stacks itm is worth at least 3 buyins or 4? If I fold I estimate a 75% itm that is just about 1.3 buyins, so still very good odds to call.

I roughly estimated your bubble factor, and since you're so short it might be around 1.5.

no guarantee for that number, but it's likely not going to be huge. I used another scenario for that estimate.

if you were bigger stacked and risked elimination, then your bubble factor could get as high as 2 or 3, or even 4. meaning an additional required equity of 16%, 25% or 30%.

if the bubble factor is 1.5 we need an additional equity of 10%.

hence we're crushing with AK.

as we're more than quadrupling if opp doesn't bubble us, we need roughly 25% equity in chipEV.

if the bubble was guaranteed to bust soon, we may have to consider that. but the other short stack might survive.

many hands have at least 35% equity vs opponent's range.

we also have to consider that two shorter stacks entered the pot before the chipleader, so I'd go with a range of hands that have at least 40% equity versus chipleader's 3bet squeezing range.

depending on his range, it could be something along

77+, AJ+, ATs+, KQs

AA, KK, AKs imo

devalue icm

it's inherently counterfeit

use it to exploit

(by that, Id go a pip wider than above mentioned range)

I don’t think there is much trappings here as hands goes to postflop often and there is a hand where UTG open A7s and called a jam and suck out.

I called here hoping there is enough AQ KJs type of hands from the big stack.

Do you have results to share?

Nath has some good considerations. The situation really is pretty dependent on what your opponents are doing.

Generally speaking I would expect the big stack to have some wider 3-bets because they can exert so much pressure on the bubble. The initial raiser also will show up with a reasonably wide range.

The flatter is the one I would typically be most concerned about. They could be trapping with AA or something as they really shouldn't be calling much at all, but in a low stakes environment I think it's also just as likely that they are calling with something like QJ that should be folding.

Anyway I still think with your hand and the price you're getting you've just got to get it in. You'll bust a fair amount but you'll be in much better shape to make a deep run the times you win the hand since you're practically quadrupling up if both other players fold.

If someone had AA or KK this time it doesn't necessarily mean they'll have it every time. Yada yada I know that's little consolation if you busted on the bubble but it is what it is. You had AK with a micro stack.

yeah generally trapping by the flatter is a serious consideration, I also just went with the assumption that he's likely calling loads of trash (trash since he'll dump it in the bin)

when it comes to him trapping, we prefer to have AK over QQ.

but generally it would require a serious vibe check before going with AK here - is he serious or nervous, trembling, or just wants to play?

chips value is higher

Results: big stack have KK and MP also called with AQo

I am drawing to 15% equity and bubbled.

MP probably doesn’t realize he wouldn’t cash if he bust as well.

seems to be a live thing, that they're so loose

tough spot, we're rolling fine, even if they call - great odds and equity (bigstack wont often have KK).

but the caveat is, we can almost speak of a secure allin confrontation, if they're often that wide.

and if not now, then someone's gonna bubble soon, so we can def fold in the money

oh you said mp doesn't realize he'll bubble too if he doesn't ship it vs bigstack ..

guess whatever.

- actually, you fold, maybe mp folds too, and he just called cause you called and wasn't aware that he has to win vs bigstack. then call is best, no matter what mp does

Call with AKo. It’s +EV by pot odds (needs ~18% equity) and AKo typically has that vs a 3-bet squeeze; be cautious about ICM — fold marginal hands and avoid speculative set-mines here.

I like your hand and may have folded given the action, but in game I may have taken a stand there. My only impression now that we know the outcome was that the big stack squeezed two medium stacks by putting one all in and with the probability of calling off another 50k if HJ shoves. He was hunting bigger game than just knocking out your short stack and getting to tomorrow. You need to play it like a satellite and he wants to Hoover chips by applying max pressure.

I have driven back to Tampa twice to min cash each time in a similar structure where I survived the day one with little to no chips. If I had to drive back for day two, I’m calling.

If this isn't the last Day 1 then it is an auto call for me. I don't like going to Day 2 with 3 bb's or less.

Even if this is the last Day 1, I will often call here because by tripling up we have a more decent chance of advancing farther than a min cash. If it wasn't a low stakes tournament (like the WSOP Main event) I would have a tough decision. I might even fold.