1/2: Flopped OESD facing flop xr and 4-flush runout
Thoughts on flop c-bet sizing & river fold equity?
Hand:
2 limps, I make it $15 CO w/ K♥️J♠️, loose BB calls, one limper calls.
Effective stacks: ~$650
Flop ($50): Q♦ T♦ 8♣️
BB checks, I c-bet $25, BB x/r to $75, I call.
Turn ($200): 4♦
BB checks, I check.
River ($200): 6♦
BB checks.
Normally I’d bluff river for ~$150 to rep the flush and try to fold out 2p/sets/Qx with no diamond. But I had showed a flop xr bluff 15 mins ago at the table which V may have noticed.
So I’m not sure how much fold equity I really have versus a player who check-raises flop.
Questions:
1. Is my flop c-bet sizing too small given this texture and player type?
2. On the river, do you think there’s enough fold equity to justify bluffing here, or is this a check-back spot given the line he’s taken?
6 Replies
If you want to call the flop x/r then you have to barrel the turn/river, otherwise you should just fold to the flop x/r.
Grunch:
PRE - seems fine to me, though I don't know if this raise size over 2 limps is "right" for this game. Might be you could go bigger or smaller, maybe.
FLOP - your c-bet size seems standard. I could see arguments in favor of going smaller, and some for going bigger.
I'm suspicious of V's 3x raise size on such a connected board, when there's still another player left to act. I'd think made hands would go bigger. Maybe this is 2P or pair + draw, but probably not sets or straights.
TURN - really interesting card. Our flop call looks like we're on a draw, so I think we could bet around half pot, expecting a lot of folds, but planning to go for it on a lot of rivers.
Checking back is fine if we're just giving up, or if we're planning to bluff river if he checks again.
RIVER - it doesn't look like he has a strong hand when he checks to us again. But it's kind of a tough spot for us to try and rep anything when we don't have it. Giving up and checking back is fine, but making a very small bet that looks like you want to get called might get enough folds to be +EV. Might bet $75.
not betting turn is pretty bad in live poker where everyone is scared of flushes. bet turn like 2/3 pot to set up a river all in bluff.
if youre not going to bluff this turn then your flop call is probably -EV.
i dont mind the flop bet because of your blockers but id go smaller.
So BB is repping a set. You're repping AJ+ that turned NFD. I think $150 gets the job done, maybe $200 just to guarantee he doesnt call out of spite. Dont worry about him witnessing an earlier bluff. Your sizing has less to do with your range and more to do with opponents pain tolerance. Heck you should be able to get through 3 or 4 so that when people finally start looking you up you actually have it.
Just remembering this now - Marc Goone at Hungry Horse has gone through this scenario in multiple videos...
PFR c-bets IP. OOP caller x/r's on a wet and dynamic board, then checks turn when the most obvious draws hero has in his range come in. V almost always has 2P or a set on the flop, and was x/r'ing to avoid this exact situation - the draw coming in on the turn. Any bet here generates a lot of folds.
When the flop action just goes check-bet-call, with no x/r, Marc's default sizing on nut-changing turns is 1/2 pot, arguing that opponents are going to want to raise with their draws that made nutted hands.
In spots like this, Marc argues that any opponent aggro enough to x/r their draws on the flop isn't going to check when they hit their draw on the turn. If they're that aggro, they'd just keep betting. I don't remember what size he recommends for our bluffs here, but it wouldn't surprise me if it's big. After bet-calling the flop, I think any bet here can look like value, so we shouldn't need to go that big to generate the fold equity we need to make the bet +EV.
I don't entirely agree with Marc that V is always going to bet again if he was x/r'ing the flpp with a FDFD, if only because I know I'm capable of check-raising flop with 2P/sets or a draw, and I'll frequently slow down and check turn when my possible draws come in. It just seems like barreling turn generates too many folds, whereas if I check they'll often bet again, or if not, my river bet will get paid off more frequently than my turn bet. If I was V, and you bet 1/2 pot, and I had a strong hand, it puts a lot of pressure on me to figure out the optimal response.
Either way - if V check-raised flop with 2P+ and checks to us on a nut-changing turn, I think the population in general isn't slow-playing often enough to NOT bet the turn, especially when our hand has no showdown value vs V's flop x/r range, and not all our outs are clean. We were semi-bluffing when we c-bet, and the deck bailed us out. Let's keep bluffing.
