NCAA Football 2025
Not sure who will win this year, hopefully Arch goes nuts and UT can kick the door in after making the quarterfinals the
Feeling like some 10-2 "lock" is gonna get left out
I'm sort of feeling it will be Miami controversially being passed by notre dame
Lots is season left though
Feeling like some 10-2 "lock" is gonna get left out
I'm sort of feeling it will be Miami controversially being passed by notre dame
Lots is season left though
After this weekend, the bubble got EXTREMELY crowded
It was already pretty likely a 10-2 team got left out, but it wasn't a 10-2 "lock" - 10-2 Louisville, UVA, GT, Cincy, BYU, Texas Tech, Nebraska getting left out seemed extremely plausible.
After this weekend, it's now very possible that somebody the media has been considering a "10-2 lock" gets left out:
If I were Notre Dame, I'd be getting a little nervous. They're probably going to end with zero top-25 wins. Although the two losses are as good as possible (first two games, top-5-10 opponents, very close). They should hope USC does well.
Oregon should be nervous at 10-2 as well. They currently have 0 top-25 wins, and have three tough games left - @ Iowa, v USC and @ Washington.
Losing one of those games is bad because (a) it'd be late in the season and (b) the team they lose to could now easily also finish 10-2 and create a log jam.
Imagine you're left with 2 spots, and 10-2 Oregon, 10-2 USC and 10-2 Notre Dame.
They can't leave ND out when they beat USC h2h, and they can't leave USC out when they beat Oregon h2h, so I think Oregon is the third wheel there.
I believe Vegas is currently pricing Oregon at ~50% at 10-2, which seems extreme to me. I have them closer to ~75%
Indiana is also not a lock at 10-2, although they're extremely unlikely to actually lose 2 games.
Big/12 ACC teams that finish 11-1 and lose the championship game (like SMU last year) are also far, far from locks.
UVA is obviously dead at 10-2, and if they go to the AACCG at 11-1 and get smashed, I think they are in trouble as well. The close wins over garbage opponents are not moving the needle.
GT is still the hardest case to model. 10-2 with two ACC losses means they have two terrible losses and are out of the ACCG but close with a h2h win over UGA
10-2 with one ACC loss and UGA loss means they are dead if they lose the ACCCG.
The biggest question mark is what if they go 11-0, then get smoked by UGA, then get smoked in the AACCG. 11-2, but with no ranked wins, and having lost two in a row.
BYU is undefeated so 11-1 and losing the B12CG would mean two losses from here on out, which is tough to recover from. Cincy or Tech at 11-1 and losing the B12CG could face the committee being like "we just don't think you are that good" and leaving them out.
SEC teams are also seeing their 9-3 odds shrink. I think LSU is nearly dead at 9-3 even if they beat Bama and OU. They're unranked right now!
UGA at 9-3 means they'd lose 2 more games from here on out, I don't think they can overcome that.
Bama and UT could hypothetically make it at 9-3 if they play in the SECCG and win that way.
Oklahoma is the one team that really deserves a good shot at 9-3, and even they are probably not getting in
They're currently 6-2 with wins over Michigan and Auburn and USCe and losses to Ole Miss and Texas
They have 4 more tough games:
@ Tennessee
@ Alabama
v Mizzou
v LSU
I think 9-3 is a pretty damn good resume, but a good chance they'd bubble.
TUESDAY
8:00:00 PM James Madison -7
8:00:00 PM Texas State 7.5
8:00:00 PM UTEP 10
8:00:00 PM Kennesaw State -9.5
WEDNESDAY
7:30:00 PM Jacksonville State -6
7:30:00 PM Middle Tenn. St 6.5
8:00:00 PM Florida International 4
8:00:00 PM Missouri State -3.5
THURSDAY
7:30:00 PM Marshall -4
7:30:00 PM Coastal Carolina 4.5
7:30:00 PM Tulane -3.5
7:30:00 PM UTSA 4
Tulane only -3.5 on the road at UTSA. The AAC race is hotly contested. Tulane is undefeated and plays @ Memphis. Memphis lost to UAB, but plays Navy and Tulane at home and just beat USF. USF has that one loss and plays Navy, who is also undefeated. North Texas also only has 1 loss.
FRIDAY
7:00:00 PM Memphis -13.5
7:00:00 PM Rice 14.5
7:30:00 PM North Carolina 2.5
7:30:00 PM Syracuse -1.5
The ACC is really not putting its best foot forward on these weeknight showcases, is it? UNC has somehow lost back to back games by literally one inch - Cal punched the ball out as they were going in for the winning touchdown 2 weeks ago, and their overtime 2 point conversion came up an inch short against UVA on Saturday.
8:00:00 PM Sam Houston 16.5
8:00:00 PM Louisiana Tech -16.5
SATURDAY
12:00:00 PM Army 1.5
12:00:00 PM Air Force 1.5
Navy holds the CiC and already beat Air Force. So if Army wins, that sets up a showdown for the trophy in week 15.
12:00:00 PM UAB 11.5
12:00:00 PM UConn -11.5
12:00:00 PM Navy 6.5
12:00:00 PM North Texas -5.5
Key game in the AAC race.
12:00:00 PM Vanderbilt 1.5
12:00:00 PM Texas -1.5
Texas has flirted with disaster two weeks ago, getting dominated by Kentucky and coming back from down 17 in the fourth to beat Mississippi State. Now they're at home against Vanderbilt, who has just posted back to back top-15 wins over LSU and Missouri. Massive amount of playoff equity on the line here.
12:00:00 PM Central Florida 4.5
12:00:00 PM Baylor -4
12:00:00 PM West Virginia 14.5
12:00:00 PM Houston -14
12:00:00 PM Duke 3.5
12:00:00 PM Clemson -3.5
12:00:00 PM Miami -10.5
12:00:00 PM SMU 11.5
The ACC is in for a dangerous weekend. Miami, Duke, Louisville, Pitt, UVA and Pitt are all playing on the road. A loss here ends SMU's slim playoff hopes. Miami can PROBABLY withstand a loss, but they'd need to win out, including a tricky game @ Pitt in the finale.
12:00:00 PM Rutgers 12.5
12:00:00 PM Illinois -12.5
12:00:00 PM Penn State 20.5
12:00:00 PM Ohio State -20.5
I've been posting itt a lot about how Ohio State has been less than impressive in their games against top-40 competition. Would it surprise anyone at all if some version of pre-season Penn State showed up in this game?
12:00:00 PM Buffalo 1.5
12:00:00 PM Bowling Green -1.5
1:00:00 PM Arizona State 5.5
1:00:00 PM Iowa State -5.5
2:00:00 PM East Carolina -4.5
2:00:00 PM Temple 4.5
3:00:00 PM New Mexico 5.5
3:00:00 PM UNLV -4.5
3:00:00 PM Louisville -10.5
3:00:00 PM Virginia Tech 10.5
ACC Danger Zone Pt 2
3:30:00 PM Fresno State 17.5
3:30:00 PM Boise State -17.5
3:30:00 PM Old Dominion -16.5
3:30:00 PM Louisiana-Monroe 17.5
3:30:00 PM Louisiana-Lafayette 4.5
3:30:00 PM South Alabama -4
3:30:00 PM Delaware 3.5
3:30:00 PM Liberty -3
3:30:00 PM New Mexico State 9.5
3:30:00 PM Western Kentucky -8.5
3:30:00 PM Georgia -7.5
3:30:00 PM Florida 7.5
The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party returns. Can the SEC keep dodging upsets in these single-digit spread games against the bottom of the conference?
3:30:00 PM Texas Tech -7
3:30:00 PM Kansas State 7.5
K State has quietly improved to 4-4, and all 4 of those losses are by 6 points or fewer. Will Morton be back for Texas Tech?
3:30:00 PM Notre Dame -28.5
3:30:00 PM Boston College 28.5
3:30:00 PM Pittsburgh -14
3:30:00 PM Stanford 14.5
ACC Danger Zone Pt 3
3:30:00 PM Indiana -21.5
3:30:00 PM Maryland 21.5
3:30:00 PM Michigan State 3.5
3:30:00 PM Minnesota -3.5
3:45:00 PM Virginia -3.5
3:45:00 PM California 3.5
ACC Danger Zone Pt 4
4:00:00 PM Mississippi State 4.5
4:00:00 PM Arkansas -4
4:00:00 PM Oklahoma State 25.5
4:00:00 PM Kansas -24.5
4:00:00 PM Central Michigan 4.5
4:00:00 PM Western Michigan -4.5
7:00:00 PM Wyoming 11.5
7:00:00 PM San Diego State -10.5
7:00:00 PM South Carolina 12.5
7:00:00 PM Mississippi -12.5
Ole Miss closes the season v USCe, v Florida and @ Mississippi State. Even just 2-1 will probably get it done.
7:00:00 PM Arizona -4.5
7:00:00 PM Colorado 5.5
7:00:00 PM Purdue 21.5
7:00:00 PM Michigan -21
7:30:00 PM Kentucky 10.5
7:30:00 PM Auburn -10.5
7:30:00 PM Oklahoma 3
7:30:00 PM Tennessee -2.5
You can see my thoughts on 9-3 OU above, but this is more or less an elimination game for both teams.
7:30:00 PM Wake Forest 8.5
7:30:00 PM Florida State -7.5
7:30:00 PM Georgia Tech -6
7:30:00 PM North Carolina State 6.5
ACC Danger Zone pt 5
7:30:00 PM USC -6.5
7:30:00 PM Nebraska 7
Another true elimination game. Nebraska is drawing thin at 10-2 anyway, but the loser is certainly dead.
7:30:00 PM Washington State -3.5
7:30:00 PM Oregon State 4.5
8:00:00 PM Arkansas State 7.5
8:00:00 PM Troy -7
10:15:00 PM Cincinnati 7.5
10:15:00 PM Utah -7.5
Both teams are ranked! Cincy's offense has really been humming, but they've had a light schedule to date. They close @ Utah, v Arizona, v BYU and @ TCU. Utah has already lost to Texas Tech and BYU, so making the conference championship will require one of those teams losing 2 games (or a fat multi-way tie). They're coming off a historic blowout of Colorado, where they were up 43-0 at half, outgaining the buffs something like 400 to minus 18. I doubt they'll get at-large consideration, but the 33 blowout @ UCLA is not worthless. BYU is more likely than not to lose 2+ though, so Utah is still very alive in a straightforward way.
10:30:00 PM Hawaii 2.5
10:30:00 PM San Jose State -2.5
Ya Oregon is actually in a lot of trouble if they lose to USC and USC is 10-2. It's funny because if Oregon wins out they might even get a bye. Very extreme difference. We shall see.
Sheepishly waited until IU piped UCLA to buy tickets to the B1GCG on Dec. 6th in Indy because years of trauma have taught me to doubt a good thing.
Text my best friend and tell him to keep that weekend open because it used to be our tradition to go to the B1GCG every year back when it started and tickets were like $35 a piece (this years were...not).
Almost immediately get several angry texts from my wife informing me that that weekend was the weekend she had planned a surprise party in DC for my birthday and was flying my best fiend in to surprise me...
FML
Sheepishly waited until IU piped UCLA to buy tickets to the B1GCG on Dec. 6th in Indy because years of trauma have taught me to doubt a good thing.Text my best friend and tell him to keep that weekend open because it used to be our tradition to go to the B1GCG every year back when it started and tickets were like $35 a piece (this years were...not).Almost immediately get severa
SURPRISE!!!
Sounds like she had loving thoughts in mind, so I'll go with that spirit; let's assume you're like me--in that case she would have made numerous, I'd say ambiguous, wordisms about "saving the date" or "we have this thing I can't get out of" or "It's my office holiday party" or "I'm having surgery" or various other blah blah yammer blah etc. Y'know the look; "What do you mean, 'you have no idea what I'm talking about?'"
Well I'm here to share because this sort of **** happens all the time!
Try to work in this phrase whenever she seems particularly frustrated about it, and make eye contact but not too much; "I'm sorry. That sounds really hard." You'll be home free!
It's a little more complicated if she's seen season 3 of Daredevil. Frustrating, yet genuinely amusing at the same time. Work in some "You're important to me", "I've been forgetting more and more lately", "we can do this", and "Nathan Jr accepts me for who I am, and I think you 'aught had, too"
But...you probably resell the tickets for a profit (or at least a cover) anyway, so just do the party and act surprised.
Also, don't forget to kick your best friend in the nuts and ask him why he thought it would be a good idea to do anything other than TELL YOU instead of telling your wife you were running around all willy-nilly like a free man making plans and stuff.
GT is still the hardest case to model. 10-2 with two ACC losses means they have two terrible losses and are out of the ACCG but close with a h2h win over UGA
10-2 with one ACC loss and UGA loss means they are dead if they lose the ACCCG.
The biggest question mark is what if they go 11-0, then get smoked by UGA, then get smoked in the AACCG. 11-2, but with no ranked wins, and having lost two in a row.
I will slip in a Haynes King season-ending injury is, imo, the most likely explanation for such an occurrence, so basically a hard no. And that's not just an FSU joke, that's a qb who's idea of self-preservation is "never tell me the odds".
Also just realized UGA-GT is in Megatron's ***hole, which means more seats for...more dollars...yaaay capitalism.
d
SURPRISE!!!Sounds like she had loving thoughts in mind, so I'll go with that spirit; let's assume you're like me--in that case she would have made numerous, I'd say ambiguous, wordisms about "saving the date" or "we have this thing I can't get out of" or "It's my office holiday party" or "I'm having surgery" or various other blah blah yammer blah etc. Y'know the look; "What do
Right?? Like obviously I'm just going to wait until it gets closer and try and resell the tickets so I don't eat the loss, but dude...just call me and tell me I ****ed up.
Of course she told me something about this months ago, and of course I probably just "Yes dear, that's nice dear" my way right through it.
136 years of futility and I have to go and find someone that cares enough about me to do nice things...
Record 27-26. Superlocks: 3-6
Here's the LOCKS of the week:
Vandy ml (+100)
Florida +7.5 (-115)
Cal +4 (-108)
Tenn -2.5 (-145)
Neb +7.5 (-136)
Cin +7.5 (-115)
Michigan ml (-1800)
$20 to win $833.36
I put the Michigan ML in there just to get the parlay winnings over $800. Assuming Michigan wins I will not count that for my overall record but if Armageddon happens and they somehow ****ing lose I will count it. My superlock of the week is Vandy ml. Texas is pure hot garbage. Bottom of the barrel Kentucky and Miss St outplayed them. I'm still in shock over that Miss St game. WTF man how. Their luck will run out this week. Vandy is the real deal. I would be scared shitless if Michigan had to play them, let alone a trash team like Texas. All that said, having no QB and still making it to November without officially being eliminated from the playoffs is still kind of an accomplishment. Gotta get a QB from the portal for next year or this program is ****ed.
Texas 23 OU 6
OU 24 Michigan 13
If we're garbage you're right there with us.
The last two games have been close and the Florida loss are due to coaching stupidity.
Run spread concepts like we did against OU and the 4th quarter of MSU and we can move the ball and score and Arch looks like a good QB.
Run 2 TE pro passing attack and Arch looks like a special needs kid playing the game only because of make a wish and we go three and out. We did this against Florida, UK and first 3 quarters of MSU.
If we run the spread we'll handle Vandy easily. If we go back to the 2 TE pro style **** we lose.
I'd put it at 50/50 that Arch actually plays this weekend.
Texas is really good against the run and at home. I think they beat Vandy.
Good thing ILP's super locks are 3-6. Makes me want to pile on texas
Texas 23 OU 6OU 24 Michigan 13If we're garbage you're right there with us.The last two games have been close and the Florida loss are due to coaching stupidity.Run spread concepts like we did against OU and the 4th quarter of MSU and we can move the ball and score and Arch looks like a good QB.Run 2 TE pro passing attack and Arch looks like a special needs kid playing the game
Yeah I hear talk about the backup being better than Arch, and I think I can safely assume none of these people watched him at Troy last year or knew his nickname was “Turnover Machine”. Talk about an offseason “Huh?!?”. Has anyone really publicly interrogated Sark about that?
If Arch isn’t a go, you’re gonna find it was a wonderful time to save some money or whatever, lol.
Love Vandy and all; good players playing great together as a team on a mission, like seriously showing up every week to win and with excellent coaches and gameplanning. As a fan, you can’t ask for more and I’ll be rooting for them…but that’s a whole lot of NFL prospects on the other side compared to…maybe a TE? But I just might say **** it if it’s Caldwell.
Apocalyptic showdown for CUSA in two weeks: BOWL ELIGIBLE Kennesaw State vs Jacksonville State.
Both teams are currently undefeated in conference.
Isn't it hard to back a Texas team whose best player is a punt returner?
Although I just took Vandy +2.5, so betting on Texas is free money.
Brian Kelly was 44-6 in his last 4 years at Notre Dame.
The last 3 coordinators he hired there were Mike Elko (HC Texas A&M), Clark Lea (HC Vanderbilt) and Marcus Freeman (HC Notre Dame).
So I guess he made a 54 million dollar mistake going to LSU. Wish I could make mistakes like that.
I'm gonna go with a maybe on that. Michigan is the youngest team in the Big Ten led by an 18 year old true freshmen QB. What this means is judging this team by what happened in the opening month or even two weeks ago is a dangerous initiative. This team is improving every week. The talent is there. Our QB is a legit monster that is going to terrorize the college football world for the next so many years. Michigan is on pace to go into the Ohio state game with a playoff berth on the line, and I think anyone who follows college sports knows Michigan is going to beat them AGAIN. From there I'm predicting Michigan reaches the National title game (by beating Ohio State YET AGAIN) and then loses a heartbreaker to America's team, Indiana.
The last two games have been close and the Florida loss are due to coaching stupidity.Run spread concepts like we did against OU and the 4th quarter of MSU and we can move the ball and score and Arch looks like a good QB.Run 2 TE pro passing attack and Arch looks like a special needs kid playing the game only because of make a wish and we go three and out. We did this against F
As far as "Arch looks like a good QB" I will trust your assessment over mine for obvious reasons, but man I just can't forgive them for almost losing to Kentucky and Mississippi State. Maybe calling them trash is a bit harsh, but this is certainly a team with no hope this year.
can you guess who is:
- 2nd in the country in rushing touchdowns and 13th in the country in rush yards per game?
Spoiler
Haynes King. He's also #7 in completion percentage and has only thrown 1 pick
can you guess who is:
- 2nd in the country in rushing touchdowns and 13th in the country in rush yards per game?
Spoiler
Haynes King. He's also #7 in completion percentage and has only thrown 1 pick
Spoiler
Haynes King - 7 passing TDs - 12 rushing TDs - 19 Total TDs
Conner Weigman - passing TDs 12 - rushing TDs 8 - 20 Total TDs
Both were QBs at Texas A&M. Proof that sometimes kids need time to matured before you throw them to the wolves in the SEC.
For fun current QB:
Marcel Reed - passing 17 - rushing 6 - 23 Total TDs
big 12 tiebreakers are too tough to simulate right now. Decent chance we end up with a massive tie at 7-2 for either one or even both of the spots
The easier scenarios:
If BYU wins @ Cincy OR @ Texas Tech, they're likely in
Their other games are TCU and UCF at home. 2-0 in those and they're a lock.
If they go 1-1 in those, then they have 2 losses:
if they beat tech they have:
h2h over tech (who has 2 losses minimum)
tiebreak over Houston (beat tech, who houston lost to) if Houston loses another game, which is likely
h2h over utah (beat them, 2 losses min)
need TCU to lose again, which is likely
if they beat Cincy, they have:
h2h over cincy if Cincy loses again (92%)
h2h over Utah still
need TCU to lose again, which is likely
complicated vs Houston (beat TCU / lose UCF is better, since Houston can now lose to TCU and that would give BYU the tiebreak)
Cincy I think often loses tiebreaks if they lose twice, so really just wants to finish 8-1 or better. (26% or so)
Texas Tech is in very good shape
Their only loss is to ASU, which is unlikely to factor in to a tiebreak. BYU and Cincy don't play them.
If they win out (48%), they are a lock. Even if everybody else wins out, Houston and BYU would have 1 loss and TT beat them, so they can't do worse than 2nd.
If they lose to KSU, UCF or WV (27%) and finish 7-2, they'd still be in good shape. They have h2h over Utah, they'd have h2h over BYU if BYU loses again, and h2h over Houston if Houston loses again. All of those are likley, and thus won't even need to jump Cincy. But also can jump Cincy if Cincy loses twice, and one of those losses is to Utah. (Cincy also beat UCF but Utah would take precedence)
if Tech loses to BYU, things get dicier. Almost impossible for them to jump BYU, so they just want BYU to at least beat Cincy and give Cincy a first loss, which would draw them even with Tech if they lose again.
Tech's win over Utah will be a big boon for them if Utah beats Cincy this weekend (favored by 10)
Utah is in rough shape since they have 2 losses and lost to BYU (0 losses) and Tech (1 loss). But they do have a good conference opponent record, so I think they do well in multi-way tiebreaks. If Utah, BYU, Tech and Cincy all end with 2 losses, I think Utah has a decent chance to go.
TCU doesn't exactly control their own destiny, but they do have a lot of influence over it. After Iowa State, they play @ BYU, @ Houston, vs Cincinnati.
So they can KO Houston and give BYU and Cincy their first loss. Those 2 play each other, so one of them will also be KO'd. TCU then needs the loser to lose again, which is totally plausible.
Something like BYU > Cincy, then Texas Tech or Utah > BYU, and boom they're in.
Winning out is the hard part though.
GB,
How do you factor in Texas Tech's QB situation?
Announcers in Jax-MTSU appear to believe a headfirst slide has the same “when you start” drawback as a feet first slide. And by “appear” I mean are saying exactly that out loud.
Hammond (the backup) is out for the season, but Morton is back this week, so they should be fine.
Some downside skew, where if Morton gets hurt and Griffis doesn't look better than Brock Glenn did, then their odds of making it in the specific scenario where they go 11-1 then lose the B12CG decrease somewhat.
It's not that big of a deal though, doesn't currently move the needle much.
Not sure how much credit the committee will give them for Morton missing the ASU loss, but also not sure how much it will matter. I doubt they make it at 10-2 without winning the conferenece regardless.
