Ongoing VP TR, PART 2!

Rest of trip


After dinner, we walk over to Encore yet again to give craps another try. I'm stuck 16k for the day so far and am right back where I was before my great day 3- clinging to a 5 digit win, but only 5k to last thru tonight and tomorrow if I want to bring home 5 figures. Seriously f'ing upstuck right now, for the second time this trip!

We find an empty craps table and convince the pit to lower the minimums to 25$ so wife can play. We would have just been better off not playing at all, bc the table is ice. My wife quickly busto's and is now dead even for the trip. She's had enough and heads upstairs. I rebuy with D, reasoning I'm still losing less than I probably would at VP. I bust 2k and reload for another 2k. We play for a while, but ultimately I bust that too.

F. F. F. What to do. What to do.

OK, I've got a whole 1k left to play with tomorrow. We know that's not enough.

F.

F.

OK, if I dip more into the 10k I've got locked up, well... then I've got more to play with. We ARE leaving relatively early tomorrow... I decide to split the difference. No point in saving the 1k for tomorrow. I'll play it now, and if I bust that then maybe I don't play at all tomorrow. Let's see what happens. So I head back to hi limit and the multiline machine for what will likely be a very quick last try this evening.

I present D with the option of cashing out from our joint venture and he takes it as I figured he would. He's barely up and doesn't want to risk any more.

WARNING- the following sequence represents the trap of video poker. Results not typical.

So I play the 1k and am literally on my last push when I'm dealt a pair of threes. Reflexively hold and get ready to go upstairs... oh, hey, I've been given a lifeline!

I snap decide to play 1 of the 2k and save the 1k for tomorrow. This will be a break even session at worst. Then, I get dealt 3 aces and...

Twice with kicker, once without!

Now I'm locking in a win! Keep going.

Twice, again!

Up even more now. It's like the machine has decided to erase all my prior poor draws in one session. I resist the temptation to step up in lines and stay put. I've also mentally decided to let D back in for 10%- there's not a doubt in my mind the money is worth it, I'd rather be able to tell him about this session and share in the joy vs cut him off to save what will probably be a grand or so AND have to see the pain on his face.

Dealt quads number 5!

Spoiler

Show

Wish they were premiums, but I'm running so pure right now.

Eventually, I play down to my stop win and head upstairs. I just booked a 16k win. I have almost completely erased the debacle of today!

Day 4 result- -2k
Overall- +29k
Dealt quads- 5, two premium
Dealt royals- 1
5 digit hits- 2

Day 5, final day

We've got a room service breakfast lined up. D has a slightly earlier flight than my wife and I do. I wake up around 6:30am with of course the best night of sleep this whole trip. Could have slept more, realized that it's the last day, I'm well up etc etc and after those thoughts there's no way I'm not headed downstairs.

I head back to hi limit and slowly bleed off 3k. D is finally up and we try to get one last craps session in. Wife has no interest so it's just me and D. It's not great, the only caveat is both of us were playing small. I lose another 1k and we head up to the room. After I settle up with D he's booking a 2k winner for the trip- not much but a win is a win, and as garbage as craps has been and the fact he didn't get any of my first day win that's definitely a good result for him.

After breakfast, we say our goodbyes to D (we'll be playing poker in our home game later today LOL). I head downstairs for one final session and to cash out all my vouchers and chips. I shove all the tickets I have into the machine to consolidate.

TWICE!

!!!!

Quick session, GREAT session! I've erased earlier today AND padded my win! Would have loved to have kept playing but I still have to pack. Cash everything in, head upstairs to pack (somewhat frantically, honestly), and the final result-

Love those bags of 50k.

Head off to the airport, flight is on time... great trip overall.

Day 5 result- +3k
Overall- +32k

Thoughts- wish craps was better this trip, but even with only 1 good session, rough math suggests I only lost a few k playing a ton of dice (bigger too). This confirms what I know to be true- relative to my VP, craps is far more sedate and has less potential to hurt me. Bad sessions just FEEL terrible bc you lose all your bets in one shebang, but nothing bleeds money faster than a cold machine.

Upstuck twice this trip. Can confirm, it always sucks.

Obv ran like god at points during this trip- it's funny but had I just taken that dealt royal in the beginning and stopped I would have been better off. But where's the fun in that? That's how they get you, I suppose (and of course, if I didn't play I'd burn the Wynn and the comps would evaporate instantly).

Pretty happy with my control this trip, didn't really go on tilt once and kept mini-tilt to a minimum. Oh, and...

I JUST CAN'T WIN AT FB. I was trying to secure F1 comp from them and since I've been back I can confirm, they're offering me less than the Wynn. I think I might be done with FB. Now that I've been to all the restaurants there, I can definitely say some are good, some aren't, but most annoying is that each restaurant is inconsistent so you can't even pick one and "know" it's gonna be great. Craps conditions bc of the long table, crap plastic chips, lack of rating etc are awful. Which leaves VP, which I can't play come 2026 bc of the tax situation.

If FB had kept giving me good offers I'd keep them in my back pocket, but as it's not as good as what the Wynn had been offering me... I see no reason to keep going there. It's a shame, I've given them a few chances and as I said I WANT to like them. They just won't let me. I know they're struggling, but they're never going to get me to switch from Wynn with LESS comp. I know they're in a tough spot- they can't just be giving things away, but if they DON'T give me a significant amount of perks, I'm never going to come back...

Anyways. Looks like I have no reason to keep my Royal status there. Which begs the question why I gave them action earlier in the year in an attempt to do so. Oh well. They lost me when they couldn't come through for F1.

Thanks for reading!

Fantastic!!!

Great end to a roller coaster of a trip.

Nice trip! Thanks for taking the time to share it with us.

My heart rate is racing just from reading the roller coaster ride. Thanks for sharing the results and the emotions.

I saw you mentioned the tax situation for 2026. Has there been any confirmation of what that’s going to look like going forward for VP?

Haven't heard anything new, so I'm assuming the changes will stand come 2026.

Agree I would not go back, but the food was great (imho). I assume if you go you’ve made your peace with the fact that you’re basically having a $300pp dinner in a nightclub. 😃

brilliant result, so happy for you. thank you as ever for the journey

I am very sad at the thought of you stopping playing VP and hope it doesn't happen

If this is truly what we’re looking at in 2026, hopefully there is an epic December trip in store as a send off!

At the risk of turning this into a taxes and politics rehash, are the relevant changes to deduction of gambling losses effective already for 2025 or are they specifically slated to begin for tax years 2026 or later?

I have a vague, probably incorrect, memory of leon stating his win/loss statements don't exactly line up with his TR P&L results.

Have hosts offered to step in and ease the pain with comps to entice continued action or is this really going to be the end of high stakes VP TRs? Wait and see.

I work in horse racing, and we are really fighting it. Pushing the WAGER Act.

To make this totally political, our "government" literally can't govern. We're 1 month into a shutdown where those asshles still draw salary meanwhile poor people can't get basic government assistance. Everything is theater and show, soundbites, and performance. Not one legislator actually has solutions and/or the intelligence to see things through. This country is an oligarchy where the rich get richer, control all the power and don't give two shts about anyone. They've got us right where they want us- pointing fingers and arguing about stupid things like bathrooms and how many kids need to die in schools bc hey! that's totally normal in every other country.

So no, I don't expect things to change. My understanding is this goes live 2026. And I wrote a long post about this earlier, but in a nutshell I'm convinced the casino industry WANTS this. Who gets hurt?
- people gambling with an edge
- people gambling without much of a disadvantage

That's poker players, sports bettors, and people like me. Casinos don't want us- they want the donks that play penny slots. They want people who were always going to pay full freight on taxes bc if you take a standard deduction you could never itemize gambling deductions anyways. They want the people who have no reason to care. If the politicians can say they're hurting "sinful" people like gamblers, even better! More tax revenue? Even better.

So it's a win for the casino industry IMO. A win for the posturing, know-nothing politicians. Who controls this country? See 1st paragraph. They don't give a F about us. Zero chance this changes.

Just to put some numbers out there- on a typical year I may gross 5 million in jackpots. Let's say I net loss 100k. That implies I have 5.1 million in gross loss to start.

Old (current) way- I report all wins/losses, deduct off 5 million (100% of loss up to extent of wins), net win = zero, no tax burden.

New stupid way- I report, deduct 90% of 5.1 million = 4.59 million, have .41 million of "win" remaining, must pay taxes on 410,000$ of phantom money!!!!

That's why there will be zero VP come 2026. Actually zero anything where wins are automatically reported to the IRS. I'm guessing the casinos' bottom line goes UP after this. More room for slots! Less advantage players, professional gamblers, and people who are looking for the lowest -EV game out there.

[QUOTE=SurpriseBetsX;59140793
Have hosts offered to step in and ease the pain with comps to entice continued action or is this really going to be the end of high stakes VP TRs? Wait and see.[/QUOTE]

Missed this. Haven't heard anything from my host. I suspect they're adopting a "pretend all is the same" stance until directly questioned. As a data point, I emailed someone high up at both FB and Wynn when the legislation first broke. FB got back to me with some platitudes. Wynn ignored me. They know goddamn well what they're doing and what the implications are. My understanding is the casino industry has been IN FAVOR from the get go.

So I suspect no new comp will be issued. MAYBE if they see a drop off in volume- more likely they'll just try and entice more slots players. And they'd have to give me so much comp to offset my disadvantage that I can't see them ever doing it (see my numerical example above, zero chance I get 400k extra in comp to make up for what never affected the casino's bottom line anyways).

Or you have to play so small to avoid hand pays that it’s not worth your time.

Could also kill off a bunch oh whale action starting on 2027 once they get their 2026 statements? Whales itemize, do they not?

Well said Leon. No matter what party people vote for I sure hope that everyone can realize that this is exactly what these greedy corporate giants and politicians in their pocket want - to pit us against each other so we turn a blind eye to them getting richer while they do it. Never thought I’d see the decline of our democracy in my lifetime. Sure hope people can wake up and unite to overcome all this

Politicians are mostly scumbags who only care about themselves and their future careers, and the days of them implementing the wishes of the people who elected them are long gone. Most of them are too busy playing God and doing everything to line their own pockets, no matter how disasterous their decisions are for the public.

(there are obviously some shining lights that are gigantic exception to the above)

...orrrrrr, just report 5.5-6 million of loss, and call it a day.

The problem is the paper trail doesn’t match your reality if you’re saying you lost an extra half milly plus along the way.

Agreed, I suspect VP whale action will dry up. Slot whales already fade 10% -expectation at baseline so I'm not sure they'll notice. The real question is, what % of whale action is VP? We don't know but I'm sure the casinos do. My educated estimate is 5-10% at best. Just so many of those hi limit VP machines sit fallow while people happily put in 500$ a push on slots. And the hi limit table games are always full. I'm sure this was a calculated decision on the casinos' part.

This. All wins reported. The individual has to offset by reporting net loss which is an official document you get from the casino as evidence. The gross loss is thus inferred (but calculable).

98% of the people who vote, will keep voting for the same useless D's and R's.

They agree to disagree on a bunch of contentious, but minor, issues to keep the populace arguing with each other. All the while, they keep looting the treasury and giving the Corps and the military industrial complex everything they ask for.

I guess that's one good thing about playing cash poker -- no paper trail 😉

Might be time to put on the persona of a big losing fish in some upper mid stakes poker. Could make an agreement with a few “pros” laundering money.