NCAA Football 2025
Not sure who will win this year, hopefully Arch goes nuts and UT can kick the door in after making the quarterfinals the
Thanks
For some reason my brain had Morton out for the season
At one point, this weekend looked like it would be amazing
Now it will just be amazing for other reasons.
Finally got my simulator updated with all of the 4th and 5th level tiebreakers, so I can do the ACC.
The majority of simulated ACC races involve at least one tie, a lot of them involve 3 or even 4 way ties.
I have:
GT 72%
Louisville 36%
Miami 34%
UVA 34%
Duke 14%
Pitt 7%
SMU 3%
For the most part, the opponents are somewhat proportional If Louisville, Miami or UVA makes it, they are between 54-57% likely to play GT.
The outlier is Pitt - if they make it, they are only 36% to play GT, and much more likely to play Louisville or UVA, which makes sense, since Pitt making it involves them beating GT and Miami
Then, assuming current ratings:
34% GT to win
27% Miami
18% Louisville
10% UVA
7% Duke
3% Pitt
1% SMU
Feels like Texas tech line will be a smash yes to playoff if they win this week.
A free roll in case the committee forgives their loss to asu which they have decent reason to.
Did you rememebr virginia nc state was non conference
Feels like Texas tech line will be a smash yes to playoff if they win this week.
A free roll in case the committee forgives their loss to asu which they have decent reason to.
Not necessarily. They could just lose to BYU the following week. Then they'd either fail to make the B12 title game (and they would be out at 10-2), or they would make the B12 title game and be out with a loss.
It's still not a lock that they get in if they go 11-1 and lose in the B12 title game, although I think it's more likely than not.
Yep. UVA is just not very good.
They're a 5-3 team dressed up as a 7-1 contender for halloween. Luckily for them, Cal is a 3-5 team dressed up like a 5-3 team.
I meant free roll in the sense I don't think the injury loss is priced in to the tech line correctly.
Last week we had 55 teams live for the playoff.
Over the weekend we only lost 10 teams:
Cal
ASU (still not technically dead, but with Leavitt out for the season, and needing a massive multi-way tiebreak even if they win out, it's close enough to call it)
Iowa State
Baylor
Kansas
Northwestern
Minnesota
UCLA
Illinois
LSU
That gives us 45 teams still live:
7 ACC teams:
GT
UVA
SMU
Pitt
Duke
Louisville
Miami
7 American teams:
Navy
USF
Tulane
Memphis
UNT
ECU
Temple
7 B12 teams:
BYU
Cincy
Texas Tech
Houston
TCU
Utah
Kansas State
8 Big-10 teams:
Indiana
OSU
Oregon
USC
Iowa
Michigan
Nebraska
Washington
Notre Dame
10 SEC teams:
ATM
Alabama
UGA
Ole Miss
Texas
Mizzou
Oklahoma
Vandy
Tennessee
Florida (!!!)
Non AAC G5:
Boise
SDSU
UNLV
James Madison
We've got three de-facto playoff games this week:
OU @ Tennessee (OU still has a slim chance at 9-3)
USC @ Nebraska
ECU @ Temple
And ten one-way elimination games:
Kansas State (v Tech)
SMU (vs Miami)
Duke (@ Clemson)
UNT (vs Navy)
Florida (n UGA)
ND (@ BC)
Michigan (vs Purdue)
Utah (vs Cincy)
UNLV (v New Mexico)
SDSU (v Wyoming)
(SMU, Duke and UNT are technically still live with a loss, but dead enough)
(Houston, Louisville, Pitt, UVA and Texas are also all drawing reallly thin with a loss)
My odds to make the B12 title game:
Texas Tech 78%
BYU 61%
Cincy 34%
Utah 13%
Houston 7%
ASU, KSU, TCU 2%
Big surprise here is Utah.
It turns out they do really well in multi-way tiebreakers, where 3 or 4 teams tie at 7-2 for first or second, even though they lost h2h already vs Texas Tech and BYU.
They play Tech, BYU and Cincy (and ASU) and avoid Oklahoma State and WV, so their strength of opponents is really good.
In multi-way tiebreaks (particularly 4 ways) H2H almost never gets used, and teams rarely have even one common opponent. And if there IS a common opponent, it can't be one of the teams INVOLVD IN THE TIEBREAK (i.e. BYU or Tech), so that step never eliminates Utah. That means it usually goes to strength of conference opponents, where Utah very frequently wins.
This sim doesn't include projected team ratings changes. i.e. if Cincy beats Utah, then their record going forward is probably better than it is now, etc
****ing YTV.
Belichick on the verge of his first ACC win.
Victory formation.
Congratulations I guess?
I bet Syracuse earlier in the season -17.5 and the lost by 40. Too lazy to look it up but Syracuse is not even a decent football team.
As a Heels football fan, you take what you can get. I wasn't looking for a congratulations. Just felt like posting it with it being Friday night football.
lol I thought ABC was showing Texas highlights b/c I had the sound off..... nope just lol Vandy 1st play
Arch's concussion was cured last night and throws a pass in the flat for a TD on the first play of the game.
eta: and gets a congratulatory slap on the helmet from a teammate. Straight out of the Daboll post-concussion playbook!
jfc PSU.... are you kidding me? Nice punt decision
Vandy brings out the best in a man
Spoiler
if he's the opposing QB.
Texas 23 OU 6OU 24 Michigan 13If we're garbage you're right there with us.The last two games have been close and the Florida loss are due to coaching stupidity.Run spread concepts like we did against OU and the 4th quarter of MSU and we can move the ball and score and Arch looks like a good QB.Run 2 TE pro passing attack and Arch looks like a special needs kid playing the game
Can’t believe Sark chose spread.
Knowing him he’ll go back to 2 TE in the second half
My odds to make the B12 title game:Texas Tech 78%BYU 61%Cincy 34%Utah 13%Houston 7%ASU, KSU, TCU 2%Big surprise here is Utah.It turns out they do really well in multi-way tiebreakers, where 3 or 4 teams tie at 7-2 for first or second, even though they lost h2h already vs Texas Tech and BYU.They play Tech, BYU and Cincy (and ASU) and avoid Oklahoma State and WV, so their strengt
Utah is 12th in the Sagarin rankings. But I know this team, and more importantly, I know Whittingham. Don’t get sucked in.
Texas fans chanting "over-rated"?
Stop, stop, I can only absorb so much irony at one time!
the announcers in clemson / duke are apoppleptic about what appears to be the most blatantly obvious pass interference call of all time
Just another Vanderbilt cover...
